In Memoriam (Or, The Republican Party As We Know It)
By Rob Huckins
Bernie Sanders may have carved out new ideological grooves in the Democratic Party during his soon-to-be-over run at the White House, but presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is the most transformative candidate in the 2016 election. Sanders pushed a hyper-progressive, old school populist campaign using grassroots tactics and fundraising methods. But in the end, Sanders still won’t get the Democratic nomination. Trump won his party’s nomination but the Party of Lincoln and Reagan is not well.
Reports of the Republican Party’s demise will be exaggerated in the coming weeks. After all, it remains one of the two most powerful parties in what is still explicitly a two party system, a reality which isn’t likely to change anytime soon. Despite the horrendous missteps of the GOP this time around and it’s convoluted and at times ugly election cycle, the party will plow onward in some fashion, coming out on the other side in one form or another. But it will undoubtedly be different. Perhaps very different. When Mitt Romney lost the 2012 election, one prominent party member joked it needed to get “thinner, darker and younger” before 2016, a wish list Trump certainly doesn’t fulfill completely.
But beyond any cosmetic improvements, the GOP has deeper, more complex problems. The real battle is just beginning, not just the one against Clinton in November but the one smoldering within the Grand Old Party. Republicans don’t want Trump as their nominee. Not the key players, anyway. They may get behind him eventually. Or maybe not. House Speaker Paul Ryan has said he might support Trump. Someday. Maybe. Mark Salter, former campaign honcho for John McCain, said he is voting for Hillary come November. Former GOP nominees McCain and Romney said they will not be attending the GOP convention in Cleveland this year. Neither are any Bushes. That’s a lot of absentee pedigree, the kind of critical support candidates use as election fuel, valuable currency for the long weeks leading up to an election, especially for a candidate viewed with such skepticism by party insiders. This, of course, speaks to the very core of Trump’s mass appeal, his blatant disregard and utter disdain for the club mentality political parties have adopted, a move he views as inept governance and weakness.
The GOP has a big problem on its hands: a wildly polarizing political star as its presidential nominee that nobody really likes that much. Worse, Trump’s recipe for nomination success looks to drive a massive wedge through the heart of the Republican Party, one which won’t remove itself any time soon. Perhaps more maddening, Trump’s singular popularity seems to have no bearing on his chances for defeating Clinton in November.
So what if the party establishment doesn’t like him? He can do it the way he did it with the nomination, state by state, voter by voter until he wins the presidency. Conceptually, this is possible. But the electoral map doesn’t favor Trump whatsoever. He doesn’t do well with minority or female voters. His regional wheelhouse (the east coast) is no sure thing against Clinton (who managed to get elected senator of New York on her own in 2002) nor does he do well in the west or in many parts of the south compared to Clinton. Against a more supported or generally favorable candidate (Kasich, for example) Clinton’s weaknesses would be more exploited. She isn’t the best natural campaigner (although her battle against Sanders seems to have made her better) and she has higher negativity ratings than favorable ratings nationally. Not a great recipe for success. Except if you’re running against someone who outdoes you in those awful statistical categories.
Trump was able to kick the GOP field around through the meat of the primary and debate schedule, bullying them with tactics ranging from outright ridicule to name calling to brazenly touting his own superiority. He took over the stage and outlasted his opponents, forcing them to throw punches outside their weight class until they forgot who they were as candidates (remember “Little Marco” Rubio and poor Jeb Bush’s “low energy”?).
He won’t easily intimidate Clinton, a hardened veteran of trading barbs and reciting policy points on command. She will out duel him on most technical policy points and force Trump to rely on cheap shots and poorly framed arguments. She isn’t a lock to win, but pretty close unless Trump can overcome some serious disadvantages in a few areas. Clinton isn’t loved but she isn’t as reviled by her detractors as Trump is by his own. And many of these critics are from within his own party. Whereas Clinton will get most Democrats to fall in line behind her come November, Trump may not be able to rally his own troops. This is a problem, not just for him, but for the party’s future.
While Republicans have managed to secure Congress off and on over the years, it can’t seem to win the White House unless their nominee is named Bush. Furthermore, it can’t seem to get a handle on what it stands for, socially, economically, culturally or otherwise. Most poll data shows the nation inching toward a direction which favors socially liberal policies and some form of economic reform. Of course these are loaded terms that don’t always coalesce in ways that result in winning elections but the GOP seems lately to lose the battles that matter, the same ones it used to brag about winning. It can’t seem to repeal Obamacare no matter how many times it tries. Gay marriage is here to stay. Immigration is a tough issue with many regional complexities. Younger generations see their own economic prospects growing dimmer while their world becomes more expensive and less forgiving. Older conservatives don’t see the same party they remember from their youth. Trump projects a return to largely isolationist policies, moves which threaten to close off the United States from the world at a time when we need international cooperation the most. So far the GOP hasn’t found a counter to Trump’s narrative and by default, Democrats will likely win, not just this year but for years to come.
Think of the Republican Party as a Major League Baseball team. It’s lost some pennant races and probably will again this year. There are some choices: trade for talent (not likely), stick with the current roster and hope for the best (tried that already) or develop a farm system for future years. The last choice is the most logical, but that means having Hillary probably win the next election (2020, too) and hope the young guns are ready to go by then.
There isn’t much out there right now. Ryan probably isn’t eager to give up his role as House Speaker. Rubio was the big bet last year but then he struggled to actually win states. There are some regional party stars, governors and senators who are popular in their own areas but without any national profile. Remember when then-Senator Barack Obama wowed the Democratic Convention audience in 2004 in Boston? It punched his ticket to national recognition and four years later, the presidency. The last GOP convention speaker to generate any excitement was Sarah Palin in 2008 and it’s safe to say that train has left the station for good. Who’s left? Those in the party who have the best policy chops or most favorable ratings (Kasich or Rand Paul, for example) can’t seem to generate any support in a national election. One needn’t be a political science major to see the problem here.
Trump was first an interesting sideshow for the GOP. He then became someone who generated interest in the party, a star who could get some attention on the crowded field of candidates clamoring for the nomination and a chance at the White House. Then he started getting serious, thumbing his nose at the establishment, daring them to shut him up. They didn’t and he got louder. He grew more popular with a rabid base which felt he represented their anger and desire for a return to the country supposedly lost over the last two decades (never mind that he isn’t very conservative and couldn’t be further removed from his supporters economic predicaments than he already is). Finally, Trump started winning actual primaries. And kept winning them. Threats of a contested election were made but Cruz and Kasich couldn’t back them up with any wins. They drop out and here we are.
Trump is the GOP nominee for President of the United States. His victory may well end up being a hollow one, a win which feels good for some of the Republican base for a few months until the reality sets in that Trump’s ascent may likely spell the end of the Republican Party in its current form and the necessity to start over from scratch. George W. Bush, the last Republican to win the White House, commonly referred to campaign maestro Karl Rove as “The Architect” for his savant-like ability to read election tea leaves and figure out what worked and didn’t in terms of winning. And he was usually right. Time will tell if Trump has such a person in his campaign but we know one thing — the GOP is on life support and Trump may well be the one who ends up pulling the plug for good.
