Greece’s Snap Election: Five Things You Should Know
(1) This is Greece’s fifth election in six years.
Ever since the advent of austerity in 2010, the Greek political class has suffered a severe crisis of legitimacy. At the same time, rival political forces find it very difficult to reach a consensus on how the Greek economy can exit recession. Holding successive elections is a way for the political class to shift responsibility back to the people when it runs against a wall.
(2) The election is a way for Tsipras to reconcile incompatible goals.
Tsipras has called the elections hoping that his popularity (and the unpopularity of the pro-EU opposition) will deliver a popular approval of his pro-austerity turn in July. Claiming to act on a ‘people’s mandate’ will be the only way for Tsipras to maintain some credibility as a leader of the radical left while implementing austerity policies after September.
(3) The election will produce more losers than winners.
Syriza has suffered a split, with a new anti-austerity party emerging. But it is doubtful whether the new party will make a major breakthrough. The main opposition party, New Democracy, is in disarray. Smaller parties, like PASOK and the Independent Greeks, will struggle to retain their seats. The only certain winner is Golden Dawn, buoyed both by Tsipras’ “treason” and by the severe immigration pressures Greece faces.
(4) Whatever the election result, it will fail to provide a long-term political stability.
A new coalition government will almost certainly have to be formed after the election. But with most parties expected to be punished by voters to some degree or other, they will find it very hard to make post-election compromises to come up with a common government program. Syriza will most probably lead the next government as well, but who its coalition partner will be is not certain.
(5) Greece’s creditors will not accept political instability as an excuse.
European leaders were not surprised with the announcement of the snap election. But even though it is seen as a necessary step to allow the bailout to gain popular legitimacy, the result may end up ushering in a renewed period of instability. With public opinion in most Eurozone countries hostile towards Greece, this will again raise the question of whether the new bailout program (and hence Greece’s place in the Eurozone) is sustainable in the long-term.
For more on this topic, see Chatham House’s cluster, Greece and the Euro.
