The Week at Chatham House: Five Things We Learned
Economic Growth Has Slowed to Lowest Level Since the Depths of the Crisis
As China assumes the G20 presidency advanced economies have few options to revive economic growth. Monetary policy tools are now all but exhausted and structural reforms are likely to be ineffective in the short term. Given the current circumstances — in which most economies are demand-constrained, there are big shortfalls in investment, and borrowing costs are historically very low — there is a strong case for governments taking on more debt to finance investment. But championing this agenda will be very difficult for China in the face of ideological commitment to austerity in many advanced economies. Read more…
2.9 Million Darfur Residents Who Were Evicted from their Homes in 2003–04 are Still Living in Refugee and IDP Camps
Since January, Sudan has mounted a major military offensive against the Sudan Liberation Army in central Darfur. Most of the victims have been civilians. Over 100 villages are reported to have been burned as a result of government attacks. According to UN figures, 138,000 people have been newly displaced by this latest offensive. Inadequate registration of displaced people is just one of the reasons the US Department of State has expressed serious concern about the credibility of this month’s referendum on Darfur’s political future. Read more…
Brexit Would be a Blow to the US and the Special Relationship
While there is some doubt over Obama’s right to intervene in a UK referendum, there is no doubt that the US has a stake in Britain’s choice on Europe. The UK is the closest thing the US has to a voice in the EU. America sees Britain as the country most likely to support an open trade and investment agenda and a more proactive approach to dealing with the security challenges in Europe’s neighbourhood. A Leave vote would immediately dispose of that influence — and hasten the demise of the Special Relationship. Read more…
Waiting Until 2025 to Increase Climate Pledges Could Render the Paris Agreement Redundant
On April 22nd, world leaders celebrated the diplomatic achievement of the Paris Agreement at a signing ceremony in New York. But the pledges made in Paris will not prevent dangerous climate change. Those pledges are due to be revised in 2025, but by then the ‘emissions gap’ could be 11 gigatonnes of CO2 per year. That’s more than the annual emissions of China. For the Paris Agreement to have any credibility, it must enter into force in 2020 with significantly higher ambition. Read more…
55% of Women in Papua New Guinea have been Raped
In recent years the issue of sexual violence as a weapon of war has been rising up the international agenda. In a landmark case in Guatemala in March two former soldiers were convicted of crimes against humanity for mass rapes during the civil war, 33 years ago. But it is useful to remember that even a country such as Papua New Guinea — which is not racked by armed conflict — is still a war zone for half the population. Read more…
