The Week at Chatham House: Five Things We Learned
A Trump Presidency Would Cede Influence to Russia in Europe
Trump’s few coherent statements on foreign policy indicate that he would represent the most significant shift in the US approach for 70 years. He has actively praised President Putin and argued that the US should be doing much less ‘policing’ unless its interests — as he sees them — are strongly engaged. Trump has described Ukraine as a ‘European problem’ and suggested that he would withdraw US forces from Europe or require allies to pay for support.
In this context Eastern European countries, in particular, would need to decide whether they could maintain a Western-facing orientation given a United States no longer willing to help them deter Russia. Read more…
The Momentum is in Favour of Remain in the UK’s EU Referendum — but Turnout will Make or Break their Campaign
On several occasions over the past three months Remain was either locked in a dead heat with Leave or held only a 1 or 2 point advantage. But Remain has inched ahead in the past few weeks and at the start of this week was on 54% percent, with Leave on 46%. But turnout could still make or break their campaign. If turnout is low then extreme voters— most of whom are on the Leave side — will win.
For Remain to win, it has to underscore the urgency and importance of voting, especially to women, financially secure professionals, and middle-aged and young people — a challenge made more difficult by the fact that the referendum is being held during exam season and coincides with music festivals. Read more…
Russian Economic Policy is Returning to the Chaos of the Pre-Putin Era
Russian economic policy is in disarray. The Central Bank of Russia remains a pillar of orthodoxy, with its inflation targets and floating exchange rate. But the government, torn between austerity and stimulus, has been unable to finalize this year’s federal budget. Outside the technocratic policy-making circle of the Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Finance and the CBR, there is a cacophony of conflicting policy advice, some of it amounting to mutually incompatible ideological platforms.
A loud disagreement over economic policy would be unremarkable in more open countries. But in Russia, it reflects a system in big trouble. Read more…
Britain’s Military Standing Unlikely to Suffer as a Result of Brexit
In 1966, France left the integrated military command structures of NATO, while remaining within the Atlantic alliance. Because of ensuing doubts about France’s loyalty to the Western cause, French politicians had to strive especially hard to counter this impression, spending heavily on defence and signing secret agreements with NATO affirming their loyalty to the alliance.
There is no reason why Brexit would not have a similarly galvanizing effect. The British government, sensitive to accusations of disloyalty, would probably go out of its way to defuse them, not least to reassure the US. Read more…
NATO-Russia Relations are Likely to Worsen over the Summer
At the NATO Warsaw Summit in July the alliance will confirm a number of measures that will increase chronic tensions in NATO-Russia relations. These include NATO enlargement, a ballistic missile defence project, the Readiness Action Plan and other measures to improve collective defence, such as pre-positioning of military equipment in eastern and central Europe, and a reiteration of the nuclear component of NATO’s deterrence posture.
Given that, even individually, each of these issues is viewed as provocative in Russia, it should be no surprise if Moscow’s responses become increasingly emphatic over the coming months. Read more…
