Changing the Phins?
Entering the second year of Coach Flores’ tenure in Miami, both the offensive & defensive coordinators from last year have moved on. Patrick Graham has become the assistant head coach and DC for the Giants whilst Chad O’Shea was dismissed because he was trying to install too complex of an offense for the Dolphins’ inexperienced roster and did an unsatisfactory job teaching it, according to reports in the Miami Herald.
Defensively, Josh Boyer has been promoted from DB Coach to DC. As he came from New England with Coach Flores, I think we can safely assume the defense will remain Patriot-like in style especially with Kyle Van Noy signed to play the “Van Noy” role and a significant upgrade in man-coverage skills with the drafting of Noah Igbinoghene at pick 30 and the signing of Byron Jones from the Cowboys in addition to the return of Xavier Howard giving Boyer some true shutdown options missing last year, no matter well the UDFA, Nik Needham played as the season wore on. To my mind there are two issues with the personnel to the run this man/scheme pressure system.
- Safeties especially free safety is such a term can be used in this D. The Patriots have trotted out McCourty, Harmon and Chung in recent times whilst Eric Rowe could be a fit for the Chung role, last season’s Bobby McCain experiment at Free Safety was unproven and Adrian Colbert (who was re-signed) look to have a long way to replicate the safety play that is required. The wild card in the system is pick 70, Brandon Jones as he is seen as a Swiss army knife and who knows where Boyer will use him.
- There doesn’t appear to be a genuine “two-gap” 0-tech on the roster in the mold of Vince Wilfork/Danny Shelton so unless the international pathway player Duval Neto or UDFA from Ole Miss, Benito Jones can step up, the Dolphins will have probably use Davon Godchoaux or pick 56 Raekwon Davis in this role when they are better suited as 1, 2 or 3 techs.
The big change will be on offense where former 2000/01 OC Chan Gailey returns. He already has 4 years working with Ryan Fitzpatrick at Buffalo & the Jets though probably of more long-term significance was his 1997 work with Kordell Stewart aka Slash in Pittsburgh with the early extensive use of RPOs (Run/Pass Option) something which Tua Tagovailoa has excelled with whilst at Alabama.
Typically Gailey prefers a spread formation out of 11 personnel(one running back, one tight end). There doesn’t seem to be a featured position, as historically it appears the ball gets to the best players with some form of commitment to a running attack whenever he has coordinated in the NFL as detailed below.
1989 Broncos: Even though HOFer John Elway throwing the ball, Bobby Humphrey rushed for over 1100 Yards on their march to the Superbowl.
1996 Steelers: Powered by the Bus (Jermone Bettis) who rushed for nearly 1500 yards as they rushed 53% of the time.
1997 Steelers: Kordell Stewart becomes the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for at least 20 touchdowns and rush for at least 10 in the same season. Yancey Thigpen caught 79 passes (149 Targets) for 1,398 yards and 7 touchdowns making his second Pro Bowl selection whilst Bettis rushed for 1665 yards.
2000 Dolphins: Orlando Gadsden lead the team in targets (93) but Lamar Smith rushed for 1139 yards.
2001 Dolphins: Chris Chambers & Orlando Gadsden lead the team in targets(90 each) for which Lamar Smith rushed for 968 yards.
2008: Chiefs: This team went 2–14 but Dwayne Bowe & Hall of Fame Tight End Tony Gonzalez both had over 150 targets and over 1000 yards whilst Larry Johnson and Jamaal Charles combined to rush for over 1200 yards.
2015 Jets: Chris Ivory rushed for over 1000 yards whilst Bilal Powell rushed for another 300 and was targeted 60 times in the passing game. Brandon Marshall was targeted 173 times and had 1502 yards receiving supported by Eric Decker who was targeted 132 times and had 1027 yards receiving.
2016 Jets: Matt Forte and Powell rushed for 1535 yards combined. Again Marshall was the top target (128) but only made 788 yards, whilst Quincy Enunwa made more yards — 857 from 105 targets.
How does this info impact the current roster?
Gailey usually gets production from either a featured back or more recently a one-two punch which seems the likely option for 2020 with Jordan Howard in the power back role and Matt Breida in the outside zone/pass catching back role. Last years’ run game was terrible, probably part of the reason Gailey is here but the front office also seems to have moved towards powerful man movers on the OL as the prototype, with draft selections Robert Hunt & Solomon Kindley both over 330 pounds and first round pick Austin Jackson expected to come in heavier than the listed 310 pounds. FA signing Ereck Flowers is another over 330 pounds, even UFDA center Donnel Stanley from South Carolina is nudging 320 pounds. This will be a line that aims to move people off the ball, grind you down in the heat and beat you up.
RPOs masks any liability in pass protection the heavier men may suffer from as they are run blocking anyway. A quick passing game with pre-snap reads also helps negates issues against speed rushers as this line does not expect to be bullied. A gunslinger like Fitzpatrick can still take shots downfield to the likes of big bodied receivers like Devante Parker and Preston Williams who match-up in terms of size with Marshall, Decker & Bowe — all over 6ft 3in and over 215 pounds. There doesn’t seem to be a history of smaller receivers excelling in a Gailey system which doesn’t bode well for Albert Wilson and Jakeem Grant yet they probably have the most potential for obtaining yards after the catch on slants, hitches and sluggos especially if defenses have to stack the box to stop the run.
When Gailey had a great tight end in Gonzalez at Kansas, he got fed. Whilst Mike Gesicki isn’t near that level, he does have seam busting mismatch capability against either a slower linebacker or a smaller DB that the other tight ends in Gailey’s teams didn’t display. So I expect Gesicki to still be a significant part of the offence.
A wild card here is the seventh round pick: Malcolm Perry, if he makes the roster. An option QB at Navy, he has short area quickness but lacks top end speed, is there the possibility for some old “Slash” plays from the Steelers playbook to be rolled out in the form of the wildcat?
In summary, I expect the defense to look similar to last year but improve because of the personnel upgrades especially in pass coverage. However the big change will be on offence, no matter who starts at QB, expect Howard and Breida to heavily involved as the rock will get some pounding behind a people moving line, if they can’t do that expect some jump balls to Parker, Williams and Gesicki, however if the line can road grade people, I could see Wilson, Grant and Gesicki as a move tight end being targeted off RPOs for short gains hoping they can bust them for the big gain as the Dolphins eat up the clock moving the chains with a sprinkling of wildcat/option plays with Perry.
Originally published at https://medium.com on June 6, 2020.
