How Much is Dak Prescott Really Worth?

One of the most drawn out and talked about stories this offseason is Dak Prescott’s contract extension. Dak originally wanted 40 million a year! Dallas offered 175 million over 5 years! Dak said no! The questions remain, was this to much? Was this too little? How much is Dak really worth? Here I will try to answer the questions that have split fans across the league.

This isn’t a simple question with a definitive answer. If it was, the contract would be signed and everyone would be happy. Lets start this off by investigating how Dak ranks against other QB’s.

Prescott has been in the league for four years now. Starting 64 out of 64 games. Throwing for 15,778 yards, at a completion percentage of 65.85, throwing 97 touchdowns, creating 757 first downs. Dak’s elusive too, he has run for 1221 yards and 21 touchdowns. Dak threw for 36 interceptions.

Now we need to work out where these numbers place Dak alongside other franchise QB’s. If we take a handful of players and compare their first four seasons, to that of Dak’s we should be able to place him somewhere in the pack.

Russel Wilson

Let’s start things off with Wilson, like Prescott, Wilson played 64 out of 64 games to start his career.

In four years Wilson threw for 14,044 yards, throwing for 1734 less yards than Dak! Wilson threw for 106 touchdowns, edging Dak’s 97. However Dak ran for 21 touchdowns, to Wilson’s 12, leveling the QB’s on combined touchdowns.

Russel Wilson created 661 first downs, being beaten out again by Dak Prescott’s 757. Wilson threw 34 interceptions to Dak’s 36. However Wilson did run for double the yardage that Dak did.

From a statistical standpoint, in the first four years, Dak threw further than Wilson, he threw a similar amount of interceptions and threw for more first downs, matching combined TD’s. Not a bad start. It is important to remember, however that Wilson did win a super bowl and then went to a second in this time frame.

Drew Brees

For the purpose of this statistical analysis we shall ignore Brees’ first season as he only started one game and being counting from season two! Remembering he had a year to adjust to NFL football.

Drew Brees only started 58 games instead of 64 games in his first four seasons throwing for 12,127 yards, way below Dak’s mark of 15,778. Brees threw for a total of 53 interceptions, too Dak’s 36. Finally Brees threw for 79 touchdowns, 18 less than Dak.

Tom Brady

Tom Brady started just the one game in season one, then had 14 starts in season two, so we will again begin from there. Tom Brady would then start 62 games in his first four seasons as a starter and come of the bench in another. He would throw for 13,919 yards and 97 touchdowns. Throwing less yardage than Dak and tying Dak’s touchdown mark, whilst falling way behind Dak in rushing yards and touchdowns.

Furthermore, Tom Brady only threw a completion percentage of over 62.1 percent once in these four years, where Dak has never fallen below 62.9 percent in his career so far. In two of Dak’s first four seasons he threw for a completion percentage of over 67.6, a mark only beaten once by Tom Brady in his 20 year career.

Derek Carr

Carr will be the last example in this section. Carr may not be at the level of the other QB’s in this list however he is still a franchise QB after playing six seasons at Las Vegas now.

Carr threw for 14,690 yards in his first four seasons, threw 103 touchdowns, 44 interceptions and ran for no touchdowns.

Dak may of thrown for less touchdowns, but again this number is way above Carr’s when you account for personal rushing touchdowns. Dak threw for more yardage and threw for 8 less interceptions. Dak has a higher completion percentage and he has thrown more first downs within his first four years.

So is Dak “statically” a franchise calibre QB?

Statistically yes, Dak’s productivity levels have been higher than a handful of current franchise QB’s, some of which have been the greatest to ever play the game. Yes Drew Brees’ career did not really hit his heights till he joined New Orleans, and yes Russel Wilson and Tom Brady had both been to and won the Superbowl. But if we look at how these individuals performed on paper in these seasons, Dak is amongst these names if not performing better than they had when they signed their franchise contracts.

Team Success

The next question is on the impact that Dak has had on the Cowboys. Dak Prescott took over a 4–12 Cowboys and with in his first season he took them from the bottom of the NFC East to the top with a 13–3 record winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, becoming the first cowboy since Emmitt Smith in 1990 to win this award.

The Cowboys would enter these playoffs in the divisional round, facing a Green Bay Packers, who have just dominated the Giants in the wild card round. This game would be an offensive shoot-out with both teams gaining over 400 yards of offense. For a rookie in his first season, Dak’s 302 yards and 3 touchdowns was a very strong effort and the Cowboys only missed out on a late field goal, in a game that could have gone either way.

The following season the Cowboys would have another winning season with a 9–7 record, narrowly missing out on a wildcard spot. Dak would have a slightly less accurate season throwing at a completion percentage of 62.9 and throwing 13 interceptions compared to his 4 from last year and percentage of 67.8.

In season three Dak’s accuracy would bounce back, he threw for 3885 yards and 22 TD’s, taking the cowboys back to the top of the NFC East. Taking a Cowboys team who had only been to the playoffs once in the 6 seasons prior to him starting, to their second in three years. The Cowboys would earn Dak his first playoff win with a 24–22 win over a Seattle side, who had matched Cowboys regular season record. The Cowboys would then fall at the divisional round again to the L.A Rams, who would go on to play in the Superbowl.

Dak’s fourth season as Cowboys QB would see them finish in second in the East again with an 8–8 record, only missing the top spot by one game. In this season Dak would set a career high of 4902 yards and 30 TD’s.

Throughout Dak’s short career so far, the Cowboys and him have shown a lot of potential, reaching the playoffs on two occasions and have avoided a losing record in all of those seasons. The Dallas Cowboys finished last season leading the league in total offense, came second in passing yards, and 6th in points per game, putting a strong argument behind Dak Prescott’s ability to lead the Cowboys offense.

If the Cowboys are to sign Prescott to a four year deal it is vital that they use these four years wisely, with Elliot and Prescott both locked in. If the team fails to reach a Superbowl or Conference final in this time, then I believe it will be time to ask questions, just not yet though.

What do the fans think?

A survey was completed for fans from all teams across the league. 194 votes were cast and only 25% of fans believed that Dak Prescott should be offered a contract of over 30 million dollars per year. Of course there are a few issues with surveys like this. Fans can tend to be biassed towards their own players and refuse to rate another team's QB higher. Even considering this I still found it interesting to gain an understanding of where our fellow fans of the game ranked Dak Prescott.

How much is a Franchise QB worth?

Four franchise QB’s in the last year have all been offered four year contracts, with an average salary of over 30 million a year. These being Russel Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz. With Ryan Tannehill signing just outside for 29 and a half million per year.

Ryan Tannehill is a QB who has 14 less games than Dak in the last four years and has still thrown more interceptions, averaged lower passing yards per game than Dak and has only been to the playoffs once in that time. Tannehill at the age of 31 signed for a 29.5 million average over four years, which indicates Dak has every right to be asking for 30 million plus.

With Russel Wilson signing a four year contract averaging 35 million a year beginning at the age of 31, this will carry him till he is 35, where he will potentially be slowing. Whereas for Dak in 4 years time he will just entering his 30s and still potentially in his best years, which can partially justify Dak’s reluctance to sign a five year contract which will only see him earning around 35 million that far into the future. Of course, there is a risk in that strategy, he gets injured in the middle of a four year contract and never resigns as a starter, then he could be missing out on 35 million dollars, but this appears to be the risk Dak is willing to take.

Inflation Rates

8 years ago Drew Brees signed the richest contract in NFL at 20 million a year. Now 17 QB’s are now earning more than this. Five years after Brees, Stafford signed a five year contract with an average salary of 27 million a year. This contract is entering its third year and 10 players are already earning more than this figure. With Wilson already earning 8 million more a year three years later, it is only reasonable to expect this to keep inflating.

Lets say the inflation rate stays the same and in three years time players are earning 8 million a more than Wilson. The average yearly salary will be 43 million a year. It has currently been a year since Wilson signed that contract. Therefore, at this rate that would put a top contract around 37–38 million a year. If we were to allow a couple of percentage leeway in the inflation rate, as it can be unpredictable then we see that bracket of 36–40 million that Dak is asking for.

How much is Dak Prescott really worth then?

Well this is still not easy to predict. Following inflation an elite salary can be predicted to come in at 36–40 million this year, then 37–42 million next year. This then creates a world where Dak Prescott’s request for 40 million a year isn't as crazy as it once seemed. Dak may not have reached a Superbowl yet, but he took over a team with a poor record, In only his rookie season, and became offensive rookie of the year. He has never had a losing record. His passing yards and passing TD’s this last season were both career highs, even if the Cowboys slipped to 8–8. The Cowboys have got a franchise RB and they have a really strong receiving team. The Cowboys will be silly to let these next few years of potential fade away, by not re-signing their solid QB for an extra few million each year.

My opinion

Dak is willing to sign for 5 years if he gets 45 million a year in his final year. This will bring his yearly average up from 35 million to 37.5 million, its the middle ground and it will secure the Cowboys with a QB and running back for the next 5 years. The Cowboys may be able to knock this down slightly to 36–37 million a year, but I think this is fair. When you consider contracts increased by 8 million in the last three years, at this current trajectory multiple QB’s could potentially be earning 45 million+ in 5 years.