Early 2021 Bulls Offseason Preview
Even though the 2020–21 NBA season isn’t over yet, the Bulls front office knows they will enter the 2021 off-season with a lot of work to do.
The Bulls made a major trade before the 2021 trade deadline to acquire All-Star center Nikola Vucevic, who is under contract for the next two seasons. Chicago traded two 1st round picks to make the deal happen, and have seemingly committed themselves to becoming a winning basketball team sooner rather than later. But the Bulls haven’t found immediate success, and they need to continue to reconstruct the struggling roster if they want to find such success.
The trade will wind up a dud if the Bulls can’t at least make the play-in tournament. The upcoming offseason could be pivotal in the success of this team the next couple of seasons.
Chicago Bulls Players Under Contract:
Guaranteed: Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Patrick Williams, Coby White, Troy Brown Jr, Al-Farouq Aminu(player option), Ryan Arcidiacono(team option)
Non-Guaranteed: Thaddeus Young($6 million guaranteed), Tomas Satoransky($5 million guaranteed)
Chicago Bulls Players Eligible for Free Agency:
Restricted: Lauri Markkanen, Javonte Green, Adam Mokoka, Devon Dotson(two-way contract)
Unrestricted: Cristiano Felicio, Daniel Theis, Denzel Valentine, Garrett Temple
Chicago Bulls Extension Eligible Players:
Zach LaVine: The most the Bulls can extend LaVine to is 4-years/$104.8 million.
To extend higher Chicago will have to renegotiate LaVine’s 2021–22 salary so that he can be eligible to receive more in an extension. To understand that more I recommend reading the attached article.
Nikola Vucevic: The most the Bulls can extend Vucevic for this offseason is 3-yreas/$85.5 million. Extension must be agreed upon by the start of the regular season. If not Bulls must wait until the next offseason.
Troy Brown: The Bulls can extend Brown up to his max. They have until the start of the regular season to get one signed.
Thaddeus Young: If Chicago guarantees Young’s 2021–22 salary, he will be extension eligible. He can sign up to 4-years/$76.2 million. Bulls would have until the day before 2022 free agency begins to sign Young to an extension.
Tomas Satoransky: If Chicago guarantees Satoransky’s 2021–22 salary, he will be extension eligible. He can sign up to 4yrs/53.7 million. Bulls would have until the day before 2022 free agency begins to sign Satoransky to an extension.
Al-Farouq Aminu: If Aminu accepts his player option, he will be extension eligible. The most he can sign for is 4-years/$54.7 million. He would have until the day before 2022 free agency to sign an extension.
I would not expect any player here to reach an extension with the Bulls this summer.
7/29/21: The NBA Draft
Unless the Bulls end up with a top-4 pick, they will be without a 1st rounder for the 2021 draft. They traded their 2021 pick with the top-4 protection to Orlando for Nikola Vucevic. The Bulls at this point seem lottery-bound, so it is possible they can move up into the top-4 during the NBA lottery. But for now, let’s assume the Bulls will be operating without a 1st rounder.
What the Bulls do have is a 2nd round pick. They will also have the rights to swap that pick for New Orleans’ 2nd round pick if the Pelicans 2nd round pick ends up better than the Bulls.
That was a right Chicago acquired years ago when they traded Nikola Mirotic to New Orleans in 2018. As of the time of this article, the Bulls’ 2nd is projected to be better than New Orleans because the Pelicans have the better record. But it is close and it will go down to the last game(s) of the season to see who will end up with the better record. It seems the Bulls will be drafting anywhere from 37th to 41st in the 2nd round.
7/31/21: Qualifying offers and Ryan Arcidiacono/Al-Farouq Aminu’s Option Deadline
The Bulls will have some decisions to make by this date. Qualifying offers for Lauri Markkanen and Javonte Green must be submitted by this date. To have restricted rights on a player, you must submit their qualifying offer.
The qualifying offer is pretty much a one-year contract, and the player can accept and play under the qualifying offer. Lauri Markkanen’s qualifying offer is worth $9,026,852, and Javonte Green’s qualifying offer is worth $1,897,476. I would expect the Bulls to give Markkanen his qualifying offer, for Green I would not expect them to.
The Bulls also have to decide on Ryan Arcidiacono’s team option by this date. His team option is worth $3,000,000. Unless the Bulls have a trade offer they need Arcidiacono’s salary for, I would expect the Bulls to decline this option and make Ryan an unrestricted free agent.
Al-Farouq Aminu also has to decide if he wants to test free agency by this date. Aminu is under contract but has a player option for 2021–22. His option is worth $10,183,000. Aminu is unlikely to decline this option and will likely take his $10.1 million.
8/1/21 and 8/2/21: Thad/Sato guarantees and free agency begins
Thaddeus Young and Tomas Satoransky must be waived by August 1st to avoid their contracts becoming fully guaranteed. As of right now the Bulls are only committed to paying Young $6 million, and Satoransky 5 million. But if they are on the roster past August 1st, then the Bulls are committed to paying Young $14,190,000 and Satoransky $10,000,000.
I’ll get more into the significance of this later but just understand for the Bulls to have significant cap space they will likely have to let go of one of the two.
On August 2nd, 5 pm central time NBA free agency will begin.
The Path to Cap Space and the Consequences of That:
For the Bulls to create significant cap space, significant being greater than $15 million, they will have to renounce bird rights on certain players. Bird rights in short are what allows you to re-sign players over the cap.
And too rid of some of these cap holds, the Bulls will have to give up that right on certain players. The obvious ones are Felicio, Valentine, Green, and Mokoka.
Renouncing these players is not a hard decision. And necessary to get under the cap. Those are easy decisions if you are trying to get under the cap. Another one would be Arcidiacono’s team option. That is an easy decline in my opinion. All these moves would only get the Bulls to negative $20.7 million in cap space. To have significant space the Bulls will have to make tougher decisions. And two of them begin before free agency begins.
The Satoransky/Young guarantee deadline decisions will have a significant impact on what kind of space the Bulls can have. Thaddeus Young has had a significant part in the little success the Bulls have had this season. And Satoransky is a solid role player.
The idea of having cap space and keeping both though is unrealistic. At the very least one has to go. For the Bulls keeping Thad is probably more ideal, and there is a way to keep him while having cap space. What the Bulls could do is waive and stretch Satoransky, taking the $5 million they owe him and spreading it out over 3 years. That would help clear about $8.4 million in salary. Bring the Bulls to about negative $13 million in cap space. The next biggest hurdle is clearing Markkanen’s cap hold worth $20.7 million.
The path to cap space will cost you Lauri Markkanen.
Ridding of his cap hold will remove enough salary to where the Bulls can think about having significant cap space. It is possible the Bulls can stay over the cap and use Markkanen in a sign and trade to acquire a free agent they desire, and we will discuss that route later.
But if that isn’t a possibility, moving on from Markkanen is necessary if getting under the cap is your goal. Renouncing Markkanen would bring the Bulls under the cap by about 5.8 million.
To get to above $15 million, the Bulls would then have to renounce their rights to Garrett Temple. Ridding of his cap hold worth $5.7 million. Then Bulls could waive and stretch the remaining of Aminu’s contract.
All this would get the Bulls to about $16 million in cap space. You were able to retain Thaddeus Young and keep bird rights on Daniel Theis. If extra cap space is needed you then might have to consider renouncing Theis or moving on from Thad. Or you can trade Coby White and/or Troy Brown and take back as little salary as you possibly can to create extra space.
Basically what I tried to show you is that creating cap space will come at a cost. But there is at least a way to keep key contributors while creating cap space.
This isn’t exactly what has to be done. Could always renounce Theis and waive Thad instead of waiving and stretching someone like Aminu. But I tried to show you a way to open up cap space while trying to keep key role players around. The Bulls though could go another route, and that’s staying over the cap.
Why Would the Bulls Want to Stay Over the Cap?
As I just discussed, creating cap space comes with consequences. To do so, the Bulls will have to rid of certain players. In a perfect world though, the Bulls don’t have to get under the cap. They can stay over keeping Bird rights on their free agents which allows them to go over the cap to re-sign them. The problem with this scenario is the Bulls don’t have the space to sign other teams’ free agents. But there is one way to get it done, and that is sign and trade.
The Bulls would choose to do this if they could work out a sign and trade with another team’s free agent for one of the Bulls' very own, and that is Lauri Markkanen.
For example, let’s discuss Lonzo Ball, a player who has been heavily rumored to be on the Bulls’ radar. If New Orleans had a mutual interest in Lauri Markkanen, the Bulls wouldn’t need cap space to get Lonzo Ball.
Instead, the two teams can work out a sign and trade that would send both players to the other team. The Bulls can then stay over the cap, and re-sign players like Theis/Temple. While retaining players like Thad and even Satoransky if they desire.
Or at the very least maybe trade Satoransky elsewhere for something else. But at the very least, staying over the cap won’t require the Bulls to gut their roster to get someone like Lonzo. As long as they could work out a sign and trade with Markkanen to the team of the free-agent they are pursuing, staying over the cap probably makes the most sense.
This scenario would also allow them access to the non-tax paying exception, which is worth 9.2 million, versus the room exception(4.9mil) they would have while creating cap space.
Other Things to Keep In Mind:
Marko Simonovic: The Bulls drafted Marko last year with their 2nd round pick, and stashed him away overseas. If the Bulls desire to bring Marko to the team next season, they will need to get him under contract. Ideally, Bulls do this with either cap space or the non-taxpaying exception(MLE). The reason being that will allow the Bulls to sign him to at least a 3-year contract, allowing them full Bird rights at the end of his contract. If the Bulls used the room exception or the minimum exception, the Bulls would be limited in only offering 2 years.
Top-4 pick: If the Bulls end up with a top-4 pick, then that would add at least $7.2 million to their team salary. That could be a factor when making cap space decisions.
Zach LaVine: While Zach is eligible for an extension, the reports say that he will wait until his contract runs out before signing a new contract. Which for the Bulls is great if he is willing to wait it out. But if that isn’t true or he changes his mind, remember they are limited in what they can extend him at. They will need cap space to offer him a higher extension.
