Can The Bulls Find Their Version Of Chris Paul This Offseason?
The key to the Phoenix Suns’ transformation from a rebuilding team to a title contender was a new head coach and an elite point guard. Can Chicago build a winner with a similar formula?
The Phoenix Suns had failed to make the postseason for a decade before quite boldly and shockingly making the NBA Finals in 2021. The writing was on the wall that the Suns were headed for a successful season after their undefeated stint in the bubble but certainly, no one saw this coming.
On top of that great 8–0 bubble stint, Phoenix finished the 2019–20 season with a top-12 offense and a defense within the top-20, spurred on by the excellent coaching of Monty Williams and the point guard play of Rick Rubio (13 points, 8.8 assists, 1.4 steals per game).
The Phoenix front office basically supercharged this strategy in the 2020 offseason by completing a big-time trade for Chris Paul.
Unfortunately for the Bulls, there isn’t an elite point guard in a situation like Paul with Oklahoma City in 2020, where they were interested in moving on from an elite point guard for less than optimal value (Rubio, Ty Jerome, Jalen Lecque, Abdel Nader, and a protected first-round pick).
Chicago is lucky that there are still plenty of capable point guard options in this year's free-agent class, but by my count, only two fit the “Chris Paul-like mold.”
Entering an offseason that could have huge implications on their future, can the Bulls find their version of Chris Paul?
Now the obvious elephant in the room is that for the Bulls’ to even have a shot at signing one of the players I listed below, the Chicago front office would need to both sell veterans on the idea that the Bulls can be a winning team, and clear out the necessary cap space.
One of those things is much easier than the other, but I have faith in Karnisovas and Eversley.
With all that being said, let’s take a look at the two unrestricted free agent point guards who have a chance at being the Bulls version of what Chris Paul was for the 2021 Phoenix Suns.
Kyle Lowry — 2021 Stats: 46 Regular Season Games, 17.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 7.3 assists per game (43.6% FG - 39.6% 3-point line — 7.2 3PA per game)
Lowry is the first option for Chicago’s “Chris Paul candidates.” Lowry has the obvious pedigree to turn the Bulls into a winner. He’s the only All-Star level point guard with a championship hitting the market and his 2020–21 season showed that he still has plenty left in the tank.
Lowry is an extremely physical guard, excelling at using his body to bump defenders off-balance to create space for his many drives to the rim. While he got to the free-throw line less, Lowry shot a career-high 64% at the rim this past season, a remarkable feat for a 6-foot point guard.
The Bulls' pick-and-roll attack is intriguing with Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, as they can generate a great look whether defenses go under or over screens. While Coby White is a developing scorer, Lowry is an already established long-range sniper who can roast defenses that go under screens.
The ability of Lowry to torch defenders who go under screens naturally leads to defenses going over screens, which in turn gives Lowry space to get downhill and attack the basket or dish a pass to a rolling big man.
The fluidity of Lowry’s pick-and-roll game would make the Lowry-Vucevic pick-and-roll a key part of the Bulls offense. The action would draw the attention of multiple defenders, freeing up the weakside for some intriguing off-ball actions for LaVine (Zach shot 48.6% on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers in ‘21).
Defensively, Lowry was his usual pest self (meant endearingly). His steal percentage wasn’t up to his usual standards but he held his own in all the games that he played.
Just because Lowry shows more physicality than your average guard, he is a great candidate for the occasional small-big switch on defense just to buy time for a double-team/defensive rotation.
Thankfully for Lowry, Donovan ran a drop coverage that called for his guards to fight hard through screens, something we’ve seen Lowry do extremely well when locked-in.
The cherry on the top for Lowry’s defensive fit in Chicago is that while he certainly fouls quite a bit, he posted a 14% defensive rebounding rate in Year 15. This is incredibly impressive and means that Lowry projects to be a solid rebounder at his position next season.
This would be a boon to a Chicago Bulls team that could start building a true identity by building on what is already one of their strengths (Editor’s note: The Bulls led the league in Defensive Rebound % in 2020–21 per NBA.com).
Mike Conley — 2021 Stats: 51 Regular Season Games, 16.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, 6.0 assists per game (44% FG — 41% 3-point line — 6.6 3PA per game)
Mike Conley — 2021 Playoff Stats: 6 Games, 15.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 7.7 assists per game (42% FG — 48% 3-point line — 6.2 3PA per game)
Mike Conley was only available for 5 of the 7 games of the 2020 Western Conference First Round in which the Jazz lost to the Denver Nuggets. And in the 2021 season, Conley was available for only 26 minutes of Utah’s Western Conference Semifinals loss to the L.A. Clippers.
But when Conley was on the floor, it was undeniable how important he was to Utah’s winning ways. It also undeniable that many of those same things that made Conley great in Utah would make him an instant hit in Chicago.
The best part of Conley’s game is the exact same thing that makes Chris Paul so amazing in Phoenix; they both rarely turn the ball over.
In the 2021 season, Conley had an 11% turnover rate. That is an extremely low figure — lower than Lowry’s 14% turnover rate — and one that ranked Conley in the 75th percentile among point guards per Cleaning The Glass (translation: very good).
The Bulls were 25th in the league in turnover rate and would instantly become a much more effective offense with Conley at the helm. While Conley doesn’t provide the same scoring punch as Lowry, the argument can be made that he would be more effective at running the show.
Conley has been a more effective 3-point shooter than Lowry over the past three seasons and in Utah, peaking this past regular season with a hyper-efficient and career-best 41% from 3-point range on great volume.
While Mike Conley had a higher usage rate than Lowry last season, his role for the Jazz next to Donovan Mitchell is still a preview of what his lessened role would be for Donovan in Chicago.
Conley has already shown that he can play next to a high usage shooting guard, and he would excel in Chicago taking open corner and above-the-break 3-point shots while playing off of LaVine-Vucevic actions.
The real key for the Bulls with the acquisition of Conley is that his perimeter defense was great in 2021. Per Cleaning The Glass, the Utah Jazz easily had the best halfcourt defense in the league this season.
It is true that Rudy Gobert’s incredible rim protection is the real key to Utah’s defense, but that strategy would be a lot harder to pull off without guards like Conley — who averaged 1.7 steals per 100 possessions in 2021 — and Mitchell pressuring ballhandlers around screens.
Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry are similar, two-way, veteran point guards, who both possess the attitude and skill level to take the Bulls to the next level.
Obviously, it is unlikely that either guard has the Bulls high on their respective lists. But Conley and Lowry both project to command contracts averaging around $20–$25 million per year heading into their twilight years and the Bulls should be doing all that they can to convince those players — both financially and in terms of roster fit— that they are the missing piece.
All stats per Cleaning The Glass unless stated otherwise
