Bulls Confidential 2017 NBA Draft Roundtable
Happy day before the draft!
The NBA draft is tomorrow! As our team has continued to dig deeper and deeper into this draft class, we wanted to put one last roundtable together to make our final bad takes. So without further ado, Michael, Geoffrey and Mike, the floor is yours.
1.What is the Bulls’ biggest need heading into the draft?
Michael Walton II: Shooting. I don’t really care what position, and I definitely don’t care about the age of the prospect. During the regular season the Bulls hit 7.6 3-pointers per game, a mark that was good for the 28th in the league. In the postseason they shot 29.8 percent from the 3-point line, and blew a 2–0 lead on the Boston Celtics. So I would definitely look for that singular skill first and foremost.
Geoffrey Clark: Size and scoring should be the two areas with the heaviest emphasis. As long as the Three Alphas are around, it will be very difficult for any young player to get meaningful minutes which will allow them to develop. Hoiball has seen some modest success with the developments of Cristiano Felicio and Paul Zipser, so why not build around that? You don’t need to draft a Dirk Nowitzki, but someone who might eventually develop into at least your fourth scoring option like Draymond Green will do just fine.
Mike Bonomo: Honestly, just talent. The Bulls have a complete dearth of exciting young players, with Cristiano Felicio and Paul Zipser really representing the most promise the team has. At this point anyone with potential would be a big win. Not to mention that as it stands, we don’t really know what the roster would look like heading into next season. Jimmy Butler could be back, or he could be sold off for picks. The one specific skill that does stand out is shooting. While the rest of the league has seemed to figure out how important it is to have reliable shooting at every position, the Bulls have gone with the time-tested “How about no” approach to adding shooters. They shouldn’t only look at shooting and nothing else, but it could really come in handy.
2. When we look at this draft five years down the road, which player will be looked at as the biggest bust?
Michael Walton II: I think that label will belong to freshman power forward Lauri Markkanen out of the University of Arizona. Markkanen is capable of having a Rookie of the Year-caliber season because his shooting ability is ready made for the NBA. However, five years down the road and the 7-footer out of Finland will be exposed for his lack of strength. Ultimately he will have a tough time in the paint at the NBA level. I can’t help but to see flashes of Nikola Mirotic every time I watch Markkanen play.
Geoffrey Clark: A couple come to mind, but my vote goes to Bam Adebayo. He reminds me of a taller Tyrus Thomas in that his youthfulness and athleticism are his most appealing qualities coming out of the draft. His defense is better than Thomas’ was, but he’s not going to find much success in the NBA if his offense doesn’t develop. I predict it won’t and he could have used another year at Kentucky to work on that as well as play on the glass.
Mike Bonomo: I feel like I’ve been pretty outspoken on this one, but there’s not a single shred of me that believes that Justin Jackson will be a good NBA player. I went in depth on him about a month ago, and nothing has changed my mind since. He’s a below average athlete without the ability to create shots or defend reliably, and the improvement in his jump shot over his final season is questionable. I don’t see a single skill that will translate to NBA success. I actually considered not mentioning him here because it seems that even people who like him acknowledge how limited his upside is. If there’s no expectations you can’t be a bust right? If we do look at guys that people are expecting bigger things from, Josh Jackson gets my vote. I think he’s likely to stick around the league as his athleticism should allow him to be a good perimeter defender and get him to the rim. But I could see him topping out as someone like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, a perfectly fine player but far from a star. Andrew Wiggins defensive struggles have shown, athleticism doesn’t guarantee success on that front.
3. Who will be the biggest surprise?
Michael Walton II: Luke Kennard. He is a prospect who is guilty of being drafted too high because of a stock-boosting season, but I believe he will develop into a much better player than people realize.When you look at his numbers from last year, you realize that Kennard became a better player across the board. He led the ACC with a 20.1 points per game average. He has shown the confidence to hit a game-winner, and he successfully swaggered through an entire NCAA season. At 6-foot 6-inches, he has good height for the 2-guard spot. I think he easily will step into the role as off the bench instant offense. But long-term he could be J.J. Redick with better handles.
Geoffrey Clark: As impressive as his lone season at Duke was, Frank Jackson has some serious untapped potential that could thrive in the NBA. While he might not make the All-Rookie Team, the right offensive system has a chance to make him of the league’s most dynamic young scorers within a few years. Today’s NBA requires scoring and plenty of it, which is good news for a player like Jackson, who can shoot from anywhere on the court. His talent and a little luck as to where he’s drafted could put him in the conversation for Sixth Man of the Year down the line.
Mike Bonomo: I feel like I’ve been building the Sindarius Thornwell bandwagon for months and I’m not getting off of it now. He brings just about everything to the table and I’m convinced he’ll be a total steal for whoever gets him in the second round. I wrote about him during the NCAA Tournament and again as part of an article on possible second round guys so I won’t go in-depth here. One guy who’s name I mentioned in both of those stories but didn’t actually get to talk about is Cam Oliver from Nevada. Not a lot of people watched the Wolfpack or the Mountain West at all this year, and they missed a very good player. Oliver is a power forward who often had to play out of position at center, though he could likely do it in some small ball lineups at the next level thanks to a 7’1 wingspan. He’s a good athlete who can finish and has legitimate range, shooting 38.4 percent on 3-pointers this year. He also averaged 2.6 blocks per game, with the ability to defend out towards the perimeter as well. He took on a bigger role than he was probably suited to in college, but he has the skillset to thrive at the next level.
4. Who will the Bulls select at sixteen? Will they stay there?
Michael Walton II: If the Bulls stay at 16 I believe they will select Harry Giles out of Duke. I think most NBA GMs will decide that Giles’ long injury history is enough to dissuade them from gambling on him recovering to what he once was. Gar Forman is not most NBA GMs. The Bulls already have a crowded frontcourt — assuming they bring back Mirotic and Cristiano Felicio — so I could totally see GarPax (the John Paxson/Gar Forman combination) drafting Giles and saying it’s about his perceived ceiling. If Giles develops into a star they look like geniuses, and if he doesn’t they say it was a low-risk move. Ultimately I think the Bulls will trade Jimmy Butler to the Celtics to nab the no.3 pick and presumably, Josh Jackson or Lonzo Ball.
Geoffrey Clark: Everyone who says Jimmy Butler will be packaged to move up in the draft (ahem, Stephen A.) is just blowing smoke. The Bulls will remain where they are and, true to form, select Justin Jackson out of North Carolina. The good news is his versatility and intangibles are similar to that of Denzel Valentine, so those two could work very well together, especially during the Summer League. Though this small forward may not provide a long-term solution for scoring in the post, any offense the Bulls can get is favorable and Jackson has too much of that ability to not get chances that would help this team.
Mike Bonomo: At the end of the day I do expect the Bulls to stay at 16, though a trade of Butler wouldn’t shock me. I’ve been dreading a Justin Jackson pick since the NCAA Tournament, but I’ve chosen to be optimistic here and say they’ll go with Terrance Ferguson. The former Arizona commit who played overseas has the reputation as the best long-range shooter in the draft, and is a big shooting guard at 6’7 with athleticism. Honestly this draft is deep enough that I don’t think there are many bad options where the Bulls sit at 16, and Ferguson is a guy I’d be very happy with.
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