Bulls Season in Review: Backcourt
Positional Recaps: Building The Chicago Bulls Backcourt Puzzle
Chicago’s group of guards were perhaps the biggest question marks on a roster full of question marks. Following the franchise-altering Jimmy Butler trade (a bit of a hot-take from SI here), the Chicago Bulls backourt was centered around young guards Zach LaVine and Kris Dunn.
No Bulls fans can be mad at the sports world for generally labeling the trade a failure from the start. It wasn’t readily apparent that Dunn was ready to have a real role on an offense. And after how disastrous Hoiberg looked last year (albeit with a funky roster), no one saw “Hoiball” finally coming to fruition, even if it so small degree.
In Year 3 under Fred “The Mayor” Hoiberg, the Bulls reached some key offensive milestones. I say “key” because if you have listened to Hoiberg talk in any capacity before, you know he loooooves the words “pace”, “3-pointers”, and “ball movement”.
Chicago Bulls Key “Hoiball”Offensive Ranks in 2018:
— Finished 15th in the NBA in “Passes made per game” per NBA.com
— 10th in John Hollinger/ESPN Pace Factor
— 10th in assists per game
— 10th in 3-pointers made per game
— 6th in 3-point attempts per game
— 1st in the league in field goal attempts per game
Obviously, the Bulls’ guard group had a lot to do with the team doing their absolute best to execute Hoiberg’s preferred style of play. Here is a review of the Bulls backourt in 2017–18, as well as their respective outlook for the future.
Zach LaVine, SG: LaVine was the central piece in the blockbuster NBA Draft night trade that saw Jimmy Butler land on the Minnesota Timberwolves. The move was met with much skepticism (and still is) But once he made his debut on January 13th, the offensive potential he displayed in Minnesota started to turn heads once again.
The 14 points and 2 assists (and one turnover) stat line was a good indicator of what was to come, and I don’t mean that as an insult. It is good to look at adjusted numbers since he presents such a small sample size. Per 36 minutes, LaVine averaged 22 points per game on 38/34/81 shooting splits (Field Goal/3-Point/Free Throw).
Per the great website CleaningTheGlass.com (run by former VP of Basketball Strategy with the Sixers & Basketball Analytics Manager with the Blazers Ben Falk), Zach LaVine finished 2017–18 in the 88th percentile among wing players in assist percentage. Couple this with the fact that he also finished in the 72nd percentile in turnover percentage, and you can see how signs point towards a big offensive leap from LaVine. His season was up-and-down, with his most memorable moment being a 35-point outburst in a duel against Jimmy Butler at the United Center.
Bulls management will likely get a LaVine contract extension done quickly. But there have been reports that he and his camp believe he is worth the max-$145 million, five-year extension. There are few teams with cap-space that would be interested in his services, so these negotiations will go a long way towards showing how the Bulls really feel about LaVine. Post-injury, LaVine showed off plenty of the athleticism and explosion fans had become accustomed to. Mark my words, LaVine will lead the Bulls in points per game next season. The key is how high he can get his true shooting percentage, which peaked at 57.6 percent in his last year with Minnesota, and fell to a career-low 49.9 percent in his brief time with the Bulls.
Jerian Grant, Combo guard : If you’re a regular reader of Bulls Confidential, then you know Grant is someone we have discussed often. This was year two on the Bulls for him, and it is clear that he is more likely to be traded than nail down the backup PG spot for good.
Grant started 26 of the 74 games he played in 2017–18. He averaged 13.2 points, 7.3 assists, 3.7 rebounds per 36 minutes in what was his third season. H actually finished with an offensive rating of 112 (points per 100 possessions), the highest of any Bulls players with over a 1000 minutes on the season. But despite being a good playmaker with a sky-high assist rate (30.1 percent), he often failed to make the correct play in key moments. On top of the “big moment jitters”, Grant actually regressed as a shooter, finishing with career-worst shooting percentages across the board. This derailed what otherwise could’ve been a great year for him.
Bulls fans biggest issue with Grant was his propensity to seemingly avoid passing the ball to Lauri Markkanen at all cost. Whether or not this was intentional it definitely was alarming. Passing to Markkanen is one of the essential features of any guard (not named LaVine) in Fred Hoiberg’s offense. Grant has one more season on the books before he hits restricted free agency. History indicates the front office will avoid dealing with his restricted free agency, especially if the Bulls add another guard in the offseason.
Antonio Blakeney, Combo guard: It is often in sports, that small moves end up having huge impact in the future. And Antonio Blakeney’s signing feels like one of those moves. The rookie was an inefficient volume-scorer, putting up 17.3 points per 36 minutes on an abysmal 37.1 percent from the field. But Blakeney is on a Two-Way contract and his time in the G-League is where he really improved.
He led the G-League in points by a full 7.6 points per game. His 32 points per game average was good enough to earn him the 2017–18 G-League Rookie of the Year. Blakeney was a walking embodiment of “Hoiball”. In the G-League he shot 7.9 3-pointers (!!) and 8.4 free throws per game, with 35.4 and 86.2 percentages respectively. He was an absolute dynamo on offense this season, and now he just needs more NBA playing time. If he raises his game as a passer, he can lock down a rotation spot. He has a six-foot seven-inch wingspan, so his defensive will come along as he fills out his frame.
Justin Holiday, Wing (SG/SF): The third most experienced player on the Bulls had the special distinction of being the only player to have won an NBA Championship. The 29-year old led Chicago with 72 games started on the season, and likely would’ve played all 82 games if not for the Bulls tanking efforts. He played “Hoiball” well, shooting 35.9 percent from 3-point range on 6.2 (3-point) attempts per game.
The 6.2 3-point attempts per game were almost 3 full attempts more than he ever shot in any previous season. So safe to say he definitely bought into the coach’s ways. Holiday provided decent defense on the perimeter on top of his great 3-pt shooting. He shot one of the worst 2-pt percentages of his career (38.7 percent) despite his proficiency from deep. Holiday’s contract is very team-friendly and expires after the 2018–19 season, but he definitely will figure into the team’s long-term plans as long as he is willing to re-sign at (yet another) team-friendly deal.
Ryan Arcidiacono: Fans get flashbacks to the Kirk Hinrich-era when they saw the rookie hustle hard at the UC. Arcidiacono (ARCH-EEE-DEE-ACK-OH-NO) was the other Two-Way player on the roster. In the G-League, Arcidiacono averaged 13.9 points, 8.5 assists, and 5 rebounds per game. He brought intensity to every game — whether it be the NBA or the G-League — and endeared himself to Bulls Nation in the process. There is no reason not to bring him back, as he is a low-cost player who will continue to develop into a solid role player as long as he gets playing time with Windy City Bulls. The red flag for Arcidiacono was the fact that his assist percentage was 7.5 percent lower than his turnover percentage. He will be a low-usage player in Chicago, so a 23 percent turnover is unacceptable. But he only played 304 NBA-minutes, so again, everything is to be taken with a grain of salt.
Sean Kilpatrick: My least favorite Chicago Bull of the 2017–18 season is my least favorite Bull for an unfair reason. Kilpatrick signed with the Bulls two days after my birthday, and nothing ruins a post-birthday glow like a your favorite team signing a man hell-bent on ruining their draft position. Again, I don’t actually dislike Kilpatrick. His offensive rating of 108 was tied with Bobby Portis for fourth highest on the team. But his offensive outbursts helped the Bulls secure victories at a time that the team was starting to improve their position in the draft lottery standings.
Kilpatrick is a throwback to mid-2000s era NBA basketball with a modern twist. He is a gunner, averaging 23.4 points and 18 field goal attempts per 36 minutes in his nine games with Chicago. The modern twist I was referring to is Kilpatrick’s 3-point percentage. He is a career 33.5 percent shooter from 3-point range, but he shot 39.6 percent from 3-point range with the Bulls. Whether it was the “Fred Hoiberg effect” or a fluke, we will see. But all in all, no hard feelings towards Kilpatrick from this writer.
On this beautiful NBA Draft Lottery day, the Bulls have an 18.3 percent chance at a top-three pick and a 5.3 percent chance at the number one pick per Tankathon.com . And I think Kilpatrick is a nice low-cost veteran who will actually fit well with next year’s young group, especially if his outside shooting can hold up.
Cam Payne: Bulls management has long talked about trying to figure out how Cam Payne fits on the team. They have mostly said nice things about the 23-year old guard, and he seems to be the lead for backup PG duties for next season. In 2017–18 he finally got a season of 500+ minutes in a Bulls uniform.
He 8.8 points and 4.5 assists per game. He shot a career-high 38.5 percent from the 3-point line and his 42.3 percent 3-point attempt rate surely pleased Hoiberg, who stresses floor-spacing so heavily. He also did a good job of limiting turnovers, and he finished third on the team in assist percentage. I have high hopes for a healthy (knock on wood!) Cam Payne in 2018–19, but similar to Grant, I would be worried about his role if the Bulls draft another guard.
Kris Dunn: I saved my favorite Chicago Bull for last. Kris Dunn was a player Bulls management had reportedly been high on dating back to the 2016 NBA Draft, when many originally thought a Jimmy Butler trade would materialize. Dunn reminds me a lot of NBA-All Star John Wall, but there is a ton he needs to work on to get there. And I want to take this further because they are roughly the same size (Dunn weighs more per Basketball-Reference.com), and there are so many similarities in their games.
Fortunately for Dunn, he is already close to, if not better than Wall at defense. Per Ben Falk at Cleaningtheglass.com, Dunn finished the season in the 93rd percentile among guards in block percentage and the 100th percentile in steal percentage. These advanced numbers don’t do his defensive intensity justice, you simply have to watch him to appreciate his effort.
And also per Ben Falk, Dunn shot 41 percent on all-midrange shots this year, but specifically excelled in the long midrange, where shot 44 percent. His shot chart shows that similar to Wall, he loves to attack the midrange and the paint. But whereas Dunn is superior as midrange shooter, Wall is an All-Star because of his finishing ability at the rim. Wall has never shot below 55 percent at the rim in his career. Dunn improved his field goal percentage at the rim to 53 percent this year. This is a terrible mark considering that shots at the rim account for 32 percent of his total offense.
Dunn led the Bulls in assist percentage (Grant led in total assists) and seems ready to be a more vocal leader next season. His defense and midrange game — on paper — is the perfect skillset to combine with a team that envisions a future with many 3-point shooters on the floor at all times. When teams try to force the Bulls into mindrage shots, Dunn is a player who can step up. But as long as he remains a below league average 3-point shooter, he will have a huge weakness.
On a positive ending note, Dunn’s 32.1 percent 3-point percentage and 73 percent free throw percentages are both up from last year’s numbers. If he takes a similar leap in shooting accuracy in 2018–19, the Bulls offense will take a gigantic leap. I am most interested in his development because his initial year was a success, as he showed that he can be the engine that makes the Bulls go.
