Is Extending Bobby Portis Now Worth It?
October 15th is the last day the Bulls can extend the contract of Bobby Portis before he can become a restricted free agent in the 2019 offseason. The Bulls have talked with Portis about an extension, but the Bulls have also made clear that they will value cap space for 2019 and beyond. Having the ability to sign a player to a max contract is important if the Bulls want to have a chance at top free agents. Bobby Portis is proving to be a productive offensive player, and more importantly a player that could help the team moving forward. And at worst, he can be an asset that could be used in a trade.
How much cap space do the Bulls have in 2019? But more importantly, how does extending Bobby Portis affect their ability to offer a max contract?
To understand how a Bobby Portis will affect max space in 2019, we must understand how much space is needed for a max contract. Using the current NBA cap space projection of $109,000,000, here are the max contract amounts:
0–6 year player $27,250,000
7–9 year player $32,700,000
10+ year player $38,150,000
I will use 2019 free agents as examples for theses amounts later, but now let’s project how much cap space the Bulls can have for 2019.
Let’s just focus on the 2019–20 season.
I currently project the Bulls to have about $40,035,539 in cap space. Now what goes into that projection? I assume the Bulls will decline Parker’s team option. The Bulls will then renounce him(removing his cap hold). Along with renouncing Robin Lopez, Cameron Payne, Antonius Cleveland, and Ryan Arcidiacono. Cleveland and Arcidiacono might even be waived this season. And the Bulls will also waive Asik’s non-guaranteed contract ($3 million guaranteed). I also included the Bulls 2019 draft pick and used Kevin Pelton’s RPM projection of the Bulls having the 4th worst record. The 2019 cap hit of the 4th overall pick in 2019 is $5,882,800. Of course that number could be lower or higher depending on where Bulls finish the season. But with all that I have the Bulls projected to have $40,035,539 in cap space.
That is more than enough to sign one max player in the 2019 offseason. But that does not include a Bobby Portis extension. Extending Portis before the October 15 deadline will likely eat into that number. As of now, Portis has a cap hit for the 2019 offseason of $7,483,038. That number is Portis’ cap hold. If a Portis extension has a bigger cap hit than that for the 2019–20 season, then the Bulls will eat even more into their cap space.
The question becomes how much more can Portis make, and still allow the Bulls to sign a max-contract player?
Let’s take a look at that 1st max slot for players of 10+ years experience. Again the amount needed to sign a player like that would be $38,150,000.
Looking at the 2019 free agent class, and there is only one player that slot would be used for. That player is Kevin Durant. That is the amount realistically needed to sign Durant. Now while I don’t think Durant is an option for the Bulls [Editor’s note: welp], let’s go ahead and see what a Portis extension would need to look like if the Bulls want to have enough space for Durant (or a player of his caliber and experience).
With just Portis’ hold of $7.4 million, the Bulls have $1,885,539 more in cap space than they need for Durant. Portis basically can’t make more than $9,368,577 in 2019–20 for the Bulls to have space for (a) Durant. If the Bulls wanted to take a shot at signing Durant, a Portis extension would look like:
1-year, $9.3 million
2-years, $19.4 million
3-years, $30.3 million
4-years, $42.2 million
Now let’s look at more realistic options, well, hopefully more realistic [Editor’s note: Fingers crossed]. The next tier would be the players who have been in the league 7–9 years. Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving, Jimmy Butler, Klay Thompson, and Kemba Walker are the likely max players of this group. The space needed for those players is $32,700,000.
The Bulls, according to my projection have $7,335,539 more in space needed to offer a max contract in this tier. So Portis can’t make more than $14,818,577 in 2019–20 for the Bulls to still have space for a player in this group. A Portis’ extension at most would look like this:
1-year, $14.8 million
2-years, $30.8 million
3-years, $48 million
4-years, $66.7 million
We can see that it is theoretically possible to extend Portis, and still have max space next season. If the goal is to have max space, which it should be, it is important to keep that possible without having to move assets to create space. EVERY team in the league will be maneuvering to create space next offseason.
The question at this point becomes: What is Portis worth to the Bulls?
With Lauri Markkanen and Wendall Carter Jr. the likely long-term starting duo upfront, Portis is more than likely to be used a 6th man moving forward. Portis has shown he may never be a great defensive player, but he is showing he can be quite the effective offensive player. Having a player you can bring off the bench for instant-scoring has value. Portis continues to show improvement offensively, and the Bulls have to decide before this season whether or not they want to extend Portis now or let him become a restricted free agent in 2019.
The Markkanen/Carter duo as the front court of the future is not a knock on Portis, though I do see those players as prospects with higher ceilings. With that being said, I do believe the Bulls have to be cautious with Portis. The idea of the beginning of the article was to highlight that it is possible to extend Portis, and still have max space moving forward. And I do agree extending Portis could be a good idea, but it must be at a team-friendly price.
Clearly, if Portis is asking for anything that potentially hurts max space moving forward, you decline and let him enter restricted free agency. The Bulls have to get value out of this extension, not pay above market price. If the Bulls can’t get value, then I don’t see it being a great idea, since the Bulls have other options at his position. And you can deal with his contract situation come next offseason. A contract around $10 million per year is what the Bulls should be offering, and anything too much higher than that should be declined. 3-years, $30.3 million would be my max offer. There’s no rush to go any higher.
If the Bulls don’t get a deal done, then Portis will be a restricted free agent. On July 1, 2019, his cap hit will become $7.4 million and will stay that until at least July 6, 2019. Restricted free agents can’t sign until July 6, so that give the Bulls 6 days of free agency to see if any max player would be interested in coming to Chicago. That should be plenty of time to see if there is any mutual interest.
Of course there is the risk that Portis agrees to a contract with another team. But again, the Bulls don’t have to worry about that until July 6, and have two days to match the contract offer. The Bulls front office will have plenty of time to worry about his contract situation, while still talking to other free agents.
While Portis continues to play well this preseason, I think it’s important to understand that there is absolutely no need to rush extending him. The contract needs to be a great value for the team, while still being reasonably fair to Portis as well. 3-years, $30 million is still good money for Portis. He will be 27 at the end of that contract, and still has a chance to make even more money later if he performs well, as I expect him too. It’s understandable if he wants to seek more money, but at that point it’s also understandable for the Bulls to wait the situation out, and let him test the market.
