Dunn The Closer, Destroyer of Foes
Kris Dunn has shown flashes of being THE point guard for this core in the long-term
Kris Dunn was a solid closer for the Bulls in the 2017–18 season. Lauri Markkanen finished with more minutes in clutch time and Zach LaVine led the team with 1.9 FTA per game in clutch time. But there was Dunn (Dunn Dunn) leading the Bulls core group in terms of shooting, 48 percent form the field in crunch time with 2.8 PPG in the closing moments of close games.
And on Saturday he brought back the same confidence and swagger that led to his dagger against the Utah Jazz on December 13, 2017.
(But seriously, look at how similar they are…)
This is a huge season for Dunn. Coming off of injury, 2018–19 should represent a great chance for he, Markkanen, LaVine and (now) Wendell Carter Jr. to build on-court chemistry. He is eligible to be a restricted free agent in 2020. But more important is the fact that the Bulls look to be headed towards a very high lottery pick in a top-heavy 2019 NBA Draft. So getting a better sense of Dunn’s development should (key word here) help the Bulls make the best possible draft pick.
His stat line through four games: 11.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 4.5 APG, 2.8 TOPG and 47.6% FG(career-high)/22.2% 3PT/ 100% FT shooting splits.
Diligently, I decided to dig a little deeper, I went through Dunn’s numbers on Ben Falk’s great site — DISCLAIMER: Cleaning The Glass is a subscription-based site — Cleaning The Glass. Dunn is absolutely destroying opponents from the midrange area of the floor.
Dunn is taking a whopping 60 percent of his shots from the midrange. This is more than usual for Dunn, who has finished above the 80th percentile in shots taken from the midrange every season of his career.
Dunn is hitting 52 percent of his shots from the midrange through four games, an elite rate that places him in the 94th percentile among NBA combo guards (by Falk’s classifications). He hot 41 percent from midrange last season, which was solid. So even if this hot midrange shooting regresses a bit, he should still be among the better midrange shooters in the league.
Dunn gets that distribution is important. Proper shot distribution is important, so it is OK for him to take majority of his shots from the midrange and virtually ignore the 3-point line for the time being. He is 5-for-5 on free throws so far this year. His free throw rate is low but that is to be expected as he works his was back from a left knee injury.
And speaking of working his way back, Cleaning the Glass’ statistics would suggest that Dunn could be headed for solid (if not career-best) offensive production. As expected, he has not been getting to the rim as much as he adjust to game speed. Dunn took around 30 percent of his shots at the rim his first two years in the league and that figure is at 19 percent right now.
As Dunn gains confidence he will creep back towards his usual numbers in terms of shots at the rim, but the accuracy is the key. He has mostly struggled at finishing in the NBA. In 2018–19 he is converting on over 60 percent of his shots at the rim. It easy to see how Dunn’s old volume of shots at the rim combined with a newfound efficiency would be a boon for the Bulls offense.
Like all of the Bulls young talent, cutting down on the turnovers is a central part of Dunn’s progression. I have mentioned before that simply having Dunn be an aggressive ball-handler helps because it takes possessions out LaVine’s hands; thereby forcing LaVine into a more effective off-ball role. If Dunn decreases his turnover rate it would result in more trips to the free throw line and positive outcomes in general, both things that these young Bulls have been short on.
So what did we learn on Saturday night, as Dunn (and Markkanen) led the Bulls to a comeback win — in which they trailed by 21 points — over the Spurs?
Dunn is getting back to 100%. He used his 6'9'’ wingspan to shoot over the top of smaller guards and bigger forwards. Dunn is getting quite proficient at using his change of space, snake-dribble to get to his midrange jumper. It is predictable but Chris Paul has shown that honing that shot to perfection is worth it. That specific move opens up lots of options as it can often result in a switch, and that will become more important as the Bulls start to focus more on Markkanen post up entries.
“Dunn effect” is real on defense. The Bulls have been in the middle of the pack in steals per game. But in their last three games — with Dunn — they have tied the Boston Celtics for the league lead in steals per game (10.7). Over the last three games they’ve had the 8th best defensive rating in the league, ahead of the Memphis Grizzlies, Celtics and Denver Nuggets. Against the Spurs, Dunn had two of the Bulls’ 12 steals and helped force the Spurs into many of their 15 turnovers.
Dunn and Markkanen are capable of having great games at the same time.
In the highlights you’ll notice the success of a couple actions that involved Dunn screening for Markkanen — Ed. note: Dope! — as well as Dunn’s penetration forcing the help defense to collapse, freeing Lauri Legened for a great 3-point look.
NBA.com has the Markkanen-Dunn duo posting a 3.7 net rating over a three-game sample. The offensive numbers aren’t great but the defensive rating of the duo is excellent (95.1 points allowed per 100 possessions).
The Markkanen-Dunn-Carter trio has a 3.6 net rating over three games.
And in a very small sample, the Dunn-LaVine-Markkanen-Carter combination has a miserable -30.8 net rating.
So with Dunn and Markkanen showing budding chemistry, Boylen could have one staple — the Dunn-Markkanen PnR — figured out to change the fortunes of this horrid offense. The next step for Boylen and co. to improve this team will be re-integrating LaVine into the fold. But they will need to do so without minimizing the roles of Dunn and Markkanen, especially in crunch time.
