Is Mike Conley to the Bulls the Right or Wrong Move?
Bulls’ President of Basketball Operations John Paxson hasn’t hid [Editor’s note: At all] the fact that he wants to see more production from the point guard position. Paxson also continues to say he wants to see this team be more competitive next season. A veteran like Memphis Grizzlies guard Mike Conley would help with both those needs. Memphis is listening to offers for him, so should the Bulls make an aggressive push?
The Memphis Grizzlies received the 2nd overall pick in the 2019 NBA draft, and reports have them drafting point guard Ja Morant with that pick.
Memphis started a rebuild this past season when they decided to trade away franchise center Marc Gasol. Rumors reported that Memphis was talking to teams about dealing Conley last season as well. The deadline passed and Conley stayed in the roster. But with Morant on the way, the Conley trade talks will be open yet again. What exactly would Memphis be looking for in a return for their franchise point guard?
- Draft Picks
- Young Talent
- Expiring contracts for Cap Flexibility
Whatever team can offer them a package that centers around those three things will have Memphis’ full attention.
Do the Bulls have those assets and is Mike Conley worth moving those assets for Chicago?
That is a list of the assets the Bulls can use in a trade for Conley. The list is pretty much all the players Bulls currently have under contract and their current picks. The Bulls can technically use their free agents in a sign-and-trade scenario but that’s unlikely and makes things more difficult. And mainly, I don’t see a Bulls free agent that would make sense in a sign-and-trade with Memphis. We will just ignore those players for now. The first thing Memphis will be looking for is draft pick compensation.
Chicago currently has the 7th and 38th overall picks in the 2019 NBA draft and I imagine the 7th overall pick would have to be included in a trade here. The Bulls also have young, affordable talent they could trade. Personally I wouldn’t move Markkanen or Carter but that is a slight issue because the Bulls don’t have much Memphis would be interested in outside of that. Kris Dunn is moveable in this trade but of course this is completely reliant on what Memphis perceives as his value.
The Grizzlies could use Dunn as a backup for Morant or Dunn could start until Morant is deemed ready, especially in terms of understanding the NBA game defensively. But Dunn definitely isn’t pushing the needle for Memphis, so will including him in a package the 7th overall pick be enough? Probably not, but let’s quickly examine what some other teams could offer before we go any further here.
There have been four teams that I have seen mentioned most in terms of interest in Conley. Those four teams would be; Miami, Utah, Dallas, and Indiana. While other teams of course can become involved, asset-heavy teams like Boston and the Lakers, teams that are primarily focused on acquiring Pelicans star Anthony Davis. And the Lakers still have ither big free agent plans. I am going to assume for now these are the four teams most interested in Mike Conley.
Dallas doesn’t have a 1st round draft pick they can trade because of the Ted Stepien rule. They also don’t have the best assets in terms of young talent so I don’t expect Dallas to be in serious conversation with Memphis. Indiana has draft picks, but they only have the 18th pick in this years draft. Likely their future draft picks won’t be that much better, especially if they trade for Conley. They have some young pieces in Domantas Sabonis and Aaron Holiday, but nothing too special for Memphis. Maybe if Indiana was willing to move Myles Turner, Memphis would be more interested but I don’t know if that’s worth it for Indiana. Indiana also has plenty of cap space so they probably wouldn’t want to give up too much anyway considering they can use that to find a point guard.
I would say Indiana is likely very interested but I don’t see a trade those two teams could do that makes a ton of sense. Utah is in a similar situation as Indiana. They have the 23rd overall pick in this year’s NBA draft and their future picks potentially won’t be much better as well. They also don’t have much in terms of young talent to offer. They have expiring contracts but is that enough? Miami has the expiring contracts along with the 13th pick in 2019 draft. They don’t have a lot of young talent but they do have Bam Abdebayo who is a nice young player. Miami of the four teams probably has the most interesting offer. Let’s look at the four team’s most realistic offers:
Dallas, Indiana, and Utah would absorb most if not all of Conley’s contract into cap space, while Miami would use the contracts of Anderson and Waiters to match salary (Memphis would have to trade more than Conley to Miami but it could work). These are just examples of the best package each team can offer. There are definitely other trades you can do. A great example of that being if Dallas forward Dwight Powell, or Miami’s Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic accept their player options, they all could be included in a trade. Teams could add more 1st round picks, with protections as well. But again, these are the trades I find to be the most realistic for each team.
The 2019 7th pick is in my opinion the best asset of the four teams. While Kris Dunn isn’t the best prospect being offered, there isn’t much better out there from the teams I mentioned. The Bulls would have to add Felicio in this trade just to make the money work, where as the Bulls could absorb the rest of Conley’s salary into cap space, but Felicio’s contract doesn’t have a significant impact on Memphis’ cap space this or next season.
Memphis is rebuilding so they don’t have a huge need for cap space anyways, so I can’t imagine that would factor heavily into their decision.
Basically the Bulls offer would look like this: Kris Dunn, Cristiano Felicio, and the 2019 7th overall pick.
While it’s not the sexiest offer out there, it isn’t much, much worse than the other four.
Maybe Memphis just keeps Conley if this is the best offer out there, but if the Bulls add additional picks (ideally protected), then it does get interesting. Like adding their 2022 1st (top 5 protected) or something along those lines. Let’s go ahead and say that Memphis and Chicago come to some sort of agreement. Would it even be worth it for the Bulls though?
The Bulls should 100 percent be interested in Conley. The Bulls are ranked 25th in the NBA in terms of AST percentage and are a bottom 10 team in TO (turnover) percentage. While Conley isn’t one of the five best playmakers in the league, you can rely on him to take care of the basketball. He can score the ball with ease and is a reliable 3pt shooter. He is well regarded for his defense. Conley’s presence in the starting lineup would be huge and while his veteran savvy is a boon, it’s also his biggest issue when it comes to his fit in Chicago.
Conley will be 32 years old by the start of next season. He doesn’t fit the timeline of the Bulls’ roster. He also makes $67 million the next two seasons. What would the Bulls cap space look like with Mike Conley?
If the Bulls were to trade Dunn and Felicio for Conley, they would not be left with much money to spend. There team would look like this:
Conley, Lavine, Porter Jr, Markkanen, Carter as the starters
Valentine, Hutchison, Blakeney, 2019 2nd round pick on the bench
The Bulls have Bird rights on Selden and Arcidiacono (Bird rights mean you don’t need cap space to resign either player). The Bulls would have $3.3–$5.3 million in cap space and they can get to $5.3 million by renouncing rights to Seldon and Arcidiacono and $3 mil more if they get Asik’s dead money removed. The can create an additional $4.7 million because of the room exception they will have as well. The bench would have to be filled out without more than $5.3 million to offer to free agents.
The following offseason the Bulls would have $13.1 million to spend on free agents, along with the room exception. But that $13.1 million isn’t factoring their future draft pick in 2020.
What this means is the Bulls will have to likely get bargain deals, or accept that they won’t have a strong bench the next season and maybe even the following the season as well. Is this worth Mike Conley?
What are your goals for the Bulls the next season or two? Paxson continues to speak about being more competitive, while seeing the young core take the next step. Does Conley help in anyway with that?
Conley is an upgrade at point guard, who also compliments Lavine well. Having a player next to Lavine you can trust to run the offense only makes him better. While Lavine has made improvements as a playmaker, it isn’t his strength. Conley takes some of that pressure off Lavine and allows him to focus on scoring and playing off ball. While Conley isn’t the best passer in the NBA, he is a clear upgrade over Dunn. Mainly because you know the turnovers will go down. Conley definitely would fit right in at point guard for Chicago. The question becomes: can you find a better use of your cap space this summer or next?
While you might not get a player better than Conley, could you get a combination of players that help your point guard needs and help fill out your bench as well?
Personally I don’t like how much trading for Conley limits you the next two seasons. It doesn’t give you much flexibility to improve the roster. The depth isn’t there and this roster has shown injury issues the past few seasons. The Bulls won’t survive a key injury or two. Conley also is on the back end of his career. He will be a two-year rental to give you some much needed stability at the point guard position, but how much better is he making you?
Chicago won 22 games last season, while arguably injuries and tanking cost them some games. The Bulls though were projected to win 27 games, so it isn’t unreasonable to think those two factors cost them no more than 5–8 wins. The point being the Bulls aren’t a good team. They are approximately a 15-win difference away from a playoff team.
Can Mike Conley bring them close to that? At his best Conley was a 10 win share player. While this isn’t an exact science, it’s hard to see Conley pushing this team into the playoffs unless other players take big steps next season. Which is possible, but not close to a guarantee. Best case scenario if the Bulls trade for Mike Conley, he helps the Bulls reach the playoffs the next two seasons. And when his contract is off the books in 2021, the Bulls will be a much more appealing team with cap space heading into that offseason. That is the only reason you are trading for Mike Conley.
Time will tell if there are more teams interested in Conley, but I have to imagine there will be. But the four teams that get mentioned the most arguably can’t outbid the Bulls. At least not significantly.
So if the Bulls want to get involved they have the picks to make it worth Memphis’ time. The Bulls front office needs to think very, very hard about if Mike Conley is worth it? For me it is a tough sell for the Bulls. It would likely cost you one more 1st, which for me is a steep price to pay for a better chance to maybe make the playoffs the next two seasons with limited cap space to improve the team further. But it is entirely possible Conley is best player the Bulls can get this or next offseason. Which if true, makes it something to think about.
