Let’s Talk Westbrook to Chicago
The Oklahoma City Thunder seem to be heading toward a full rebuild. They traded star Paul George away to the Clippers, and seemingly will be trading away star point guard Russell Westbrook. The Bulls have the assets to make a Westbrook trade happen. The question becomes should they? Well, let’s discuss that here.
What does Westbrook’s contract situation look like?
2019/20: $38,506,482 (Age: 30)
2020/21: $41,358,814 (Age: 31)
2021/22: $44,211,146 (Age: 32)
2022/23: $47,063,478 (Age: 33) (Player Option)
(Age is what he will be at the start of each season. His birthday is 11/12)
What is Oklahoma City looking for?
- Tax relief and salary relief
- Draft assets or prospects
Who is the main competition for Westbrook?
All reports have the Miami Heat as the strongest bidder, with Westbrook having mutual interest. But Westbrook’s interest don’t matter as much since he has little leverage and is locked up for the next four seasons. Oklahoma City will look for the best return no matter what.
What issues does Miami have that could prevent them from acquiring Westbrook?
Miami is hard capped at $138,627,000 because they acquired Jimmy Butler in a sign and trade. Meaning, they can not have a team salary above that number for the rest of the 2019–20 season.
The Heat are about $2.8 million away from that hard cap. Miami technically needs to trade away about $35.8 million in salary to make a trade work with Westbrook, because of the hard cap. The Thunder though are about $3.6 million above the tax. For them, ideally they won’t want to take on more than $34.7 million in salary. While it is possible for the Thunder to stay over the tax in a Westbrook trade, and worry about getting under the tax later, I would imagine by moving Westbrook they will want to get rid of as much salary as they can without having to worry about this in the future.
What would Miami’s best offer look like?
Oklahoma Trades: Russell Westbrook(MIA), Miami’s 2021 1st Round(MIA), Miami’s 2023 1st Round(MIA)
Miami Trades: Goran Dragic (OKC), Justise Winslow (DAL), Tyler Herro (OKC), Bam Adebayo (OKC), Miami’s 2020 1st Round (OKC), Miami’s 2022 1st (OKC), Miami’s 2024 1st Round (OKC), Miami’s 2026 1st Round (OKC)
Dallas Trades: 2022 2nd Round(top 55 protected to OKC)
Why do I have Oklahoma trading two 1st?
Miami as of right now can NOT trade a first-round pick. Miami owns their 2020 and 2022 1st round pick, but Miami does not own their 2021 pick(OKC owns). Plus they currently owe their 2023 pick to Oklahoma(lottery protected until 2026, unprotected in 2026). Teams are not allowed to trade future 1st round picks if they are possibly leaving themselves without a 1st in consecutive seasons. Trading either pick would do that to Miami. But because Oklahoma City owns both Miami’s 2021 and 2023 first-round picks, there is a way around this. Oklahoma would have to trade those picks back to Miami, which would allow Miami to trade their 2020 and 2022 1st to Oklahoma City. But also would allow Miami to trade their 2024 and 2026 to Oklahoma, because their protections on their 2023–2026 1st would be eliminated. Currently, those 2023–2026 1st cannot be traded because they are possibly owed to Oklahoma with 2023–2025 being lottery protected.
Since Miami is getting their 2023 1st back in this trade, those protections are lifted as Miami owns their pick again and won’t need to protect those later picks anymore. And now Miami will be allowed to move the 2024 and 2026 picks to Oklahoma as well. (Credit to Albert Nahmad for bringing this idea to my attention). A little confusing but basically this allows Oklahoma to get 4 1st round picks in this trade(which is 2 more than what they had before the trade). Basically, by trading Miami’s picks back to them, it allows Miami to trade 4 picks back to Oklahoma.
What is everyone getting out of this trade?
Breaking down the trade, the trade gets Oklahoma City under the tax. They are moving Westbrook’s $38 million in salary and taking back only 26 million. They are getting Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo as prospects, and also get the expiring contract of Goran Dragic. Plus they are getting two more first round picks. And that Miami 2024/2026 1st could be valuable(possible lottery) in 5–7 years. Dallas’ cap space helps out here as they are able to absorb Winslow into their space, allowing Oklahoma to take back less in salary.
Miami is trading about $39 million in salary here, which will keep them below the hard cap. But more importantly, they are getting Westbrook.
That is probably the best trade Miami can offer Oklahoma City. I’m not sure what else they could do to make that better. Ideally, Miami would like to give up less, and without another team bidding here it is possible they can negotiate this down. The whole point of this article is to figure if the Chicago Bulls should be that team, and get involved for Westbrook. Let’s go ahead and discuss this.
Bulls players with trade restrictions:
- Coby White(7/30/19)
- Tomas Satoranski(12/15/19)
- Luke Kornet(12/15/19)
- Thaddeus Young(12/15/19)
- Ryan Arcidiacono(1/15/20)
What does Chicago have to trade to make this a legal trade?
Since the Bulls are out of cap space, they need to salary match. The Bulls can take on 125% of what they trade out, plus $100,000. For them to take back Westbrook’s 38,506,482, the Bulls need to move about 30,800,000 in salary. Meaning any trade must involve Otto Porter Jr or Zach Lavine.
With Porter Jr, the Bulls would need to move an additional $3,549,424. With Lavine, the Bulls would need to move an additional $11,300,000. Let’s look at a few trade offers the Bulls could do that would compete with Miami’s best offer.
Trade #1(After 7/30/19)
Chicago Trades: Zach LaVine, Cristiano Felicio, Coby White, 2020 1st, 2022 1st, 2024 1st
Oklahoma City Trades: Russell Westbrook
Trade #2(After 7/30/19)
Chicago Trades: Otto Porter Jr, Coby White, 2020 1st, 2022 1st, 2024 1st swap rights
Oklahoma City Trades: Russell Westbrook
Both trades get Oklahoma City under the tax, Coby White, and at least two first-round picks. The 2nd trade gets them Otto Porter Jr. and an additional pick swap. The 1st trade gets them Lavine and an additional first-round pick, because they are taking on an almost useless 2yrs/$15million of Felicio.
Again these are just examples, but a pretty good indication of what the Bulls would have to give up in a Westbrook trade.
This is what the Bulls starting lineup would look like after the trades. As you can see either way, the Bulls will be surrounding Westbrook with more floor spacing than what he received in Oklahoma City. To me that is an appealing aspect of this trade. Westbrook at times in OKC was forced into lineups that didn’t provide him great spacing, imagine what Westbrook could do with even more floor spacing. I would love to see a Westbrook/Markkanen pick n pop action. The Bulls could also have Luke Kornet at center, iso Westbrook at top with 4 spacers on the floor. That would be tough to guard for opposing defenses in certain situations. I’m sure Westbrook would fit right into those lineups, but the question becomes is Westbrook worth it?
How much cap flexibility would be left after such a trade?
For the 2020 offseason, the Bulls would be operating over the cap in either trade scenario. But in 2021, there is a lot of flexibility:
If the Bulls were to trade LaVine instead of Porter Jr, the Bulls could enter 2021 with enough cap flexibility for someone like Giannis Antekounmpo. The Bulls would have to trade away Hutchison, Young, and Satoransky. They would have to renounce bird rights to Otto Porter Jr clearing his cap hold. And the Bulls at most would be allowed to extend Markkanen to about $28,000,000(about $3 million below his max) per season. This would give the Bulls enough cap space for someone like Giannis, and pair him with Westbrook/Markkanen/Carter Jr.
If the Bulls were to trade Porter Jr instead of Lavine, the Bulls could still enter 2021 with max space flexibility but would require the Bulls to move Lavine as well as all the other moves I mentioned in the 1st trade scenario. He could be moved in a sign and trade scenario with someone like Milwaukee(which would likely have to happen here), though those are a little more difficult to pull off. But if this off-season proved anything, those can be done if both sides are motivated to get something done.
Trade #1 scenario gives the Bulls the most flexibility moving forward, but trade #2 isn’t an impossible situation either.
Is this worth it to the Bulls?
This is the million dollar question obviously. I guess it depends on how much you value what Porter Jr. can bring to the Bulls? And/or how much do you believe in Zach LaVine moving forward? Westbrook is a star right now. Westbrook is a talent that most teams look for. There is this idea that stars don’t want to play with Westbrook, which is based off the fact Kevin Durant and Paul George left Westbrook for better situations.
That’s Paul George’s reaction to all the criticism Westbrook received after George was traded. George was quick to defend Westbrook. Take that for what it is worth. I can’t speak on whether Westbrook is the reason those players left, but this is something I’m sure any interested team is looking into. I tend to think the Westbrook slander is over hyped, but I do believe there is some truth to it. Whether it is a significant reason these players left is unclear. I will say it was just 1 off-season ago where George committed to OKC because of Westbrook. Is it fair to blame Westbrook when he was the reason George stayed? How come no one blames the teams inability to improve the roster? That could easily be a reason why George left. He didn’t see a way the team was going to get better, because they were so over the cap/tax. Perhaps George didn’t want to play the next 3 years on a team that likely wasn’t good enough to be one of the top 5 teams in the NBA.
What are the downfalls to this trade?
Besides losing the picks, the main downfall is trading away Zach LaVine. I guess depending who you ask some would say that is a blessing, my question is how much better will Zach LaVine get? While we know he is a talented scorer, can easily be a top 10 scorer in the NBA, does his limitations in other areas prevent him from ever reaching star status? That is entirely possible. Yes he still young(24), but he is entering season 6 as an NBA player. The idea of a big jump coming from LaVine is lessening each season, at what point is LaVine who he is? His jump from year 4 to 5 has a lot of people encouraged though, and that is fair.
What about Porter Jr? No he isn’t the scorer LaVine is, and probably won’t ever be the dynamic scorer LaVine is, but Porter Jr. brings more positives to the table. You saw how much better the Bulls played when Porter Jr. was brought to the team. He is an all around player in almost every category, making the game easier for the players around him. The Bulls players were at their best after trading for Porter Jr., having him on the wing is just such a positive for Chicago. Is four years of Westbrook worth it?
It is a really tough question if you ask me. Are the Bulls heading in a better direction without Westbrook? The idea of waiting for the young players blossom together makes sense if you believe in the core, but you have to be honest with yourself. That is never a guarantee. This idea that all these players will continue to progress into another tier is not for certain. The Bulls could easily be in the same position 2 years from now(missing playoffs)because they waited to see if their players can become a star versus going and getting that star.
Can the Bulls compete with Westbrook? The Bulls would be a playoff team with Westbrook. In the East you know your main competition will be the Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks for now. The defending champion Raptors just lost their best player, and the Bucks arguably got slightly worse after being cheap with Brogdon. Boston is good but it is unclear how good after their changes this off-season. Do you see any way the Bulls with Westbrook can beat those two teams in a playoff series? And even if they don’t beat them, can the Bulls play well enough with Westbrook where Giannis actually considers the Bulls in 2021? And even it isn’t Giannis, Paul George can become a free agent in 2021. Oladipo as well. Two players who played with Westbrook. Would be pretty ironic if Bulls got one of those two to pair with Westbrook/Markkanen/Carter Jr. Bradley Beal is also available that off-season. Plus, Kawhi Leonard has a player option for 2021–22 in his new contract with the Los Angeles Clippers.
I’m definitely torn on whether or not this is the right move for Chicago. I see both sides. If it were up to me I would really consider trade #1, I’m admittedly not that high on Lavine(though not as low on him as some people would suggest)so that’s why I lean toward that scenario. I’m not convinced the Bulls would win a championship, but I do believe this would increase their chances at landing a star in free agency in 2021 which is ultimately why I say I would do it. But again, I completely understand the side that says no. But it doesn’t matter what I think, what would John Paxson and Gar Forman do? I feel like we all know the answer, but I guess we will see.
