NBA Play-In Preview: Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors
This game will likely depend almost entirely on if DeMar DeRozan can handle Toronto’s aggressive, trapping defense.
Tale of the Tape:
Bulls
Offensive Rating: 112.4 (24th)
Defensive Rating: 111.5 (5th)
Net rating: +1.3 (13th)
Raptors
Offensive Rating: 114.6 (13th)
Defensive Rating: 113.1 (tied for 10th)
Net rating: +1.5 (12th)
The Bulls didn’t accomplish their goal of qualifying for the playoffs with a top-six seed and instead will be headed to the NBA Play-In Tournament. Despite the 10-seed in the Play-In representing the lowest rung on the postseason totem pole, the Bulls can take solace in the fact that they played some of their best basketball over the final stretch of the season.
Chicago went 6–4 over their final 10 games, including solid wins over the Lakers and Grizzlies. The Bulls great stretch was fueled by some brilliant, individual offense from Zach LaVine and great defensive effort for the entire team.
Heading into the final stretch of games, it was becoming quite clear that the Toronto Raptors were going to be Chicago’s opponent in the Play-In. On a recent appearance on the Rebuild-A-Bull Podcast, I expressed my concerns that the Raptors would be the most likely, and toughest matchup for the Bulls.
Toronto won the regular season series 2–1, with the most recent matchup resulting in a 104–98 Raptors win.
The main issue for the Bulls against the Raptors is their extremely aggressive defense, specifically, on DeMar DeRozan. Most of the NBA teams that employ some sort of pressure against DeRozan do so in a way that allows him to either find open teammates or get to the free throw line by drawing contact against overzealous traps and double-teams.
But not against Nick Nurse’s Raptors.
This regular season, DeRozan has averaged 14.0 points and 3.7 assists per game over three games against the Raptors.
The most shocking part however, is easily his field goal attempts. Toronto, through a mixture of creative coach and long defenders, make life so difficult for DeRozan that he only averages 8.7 field goal attempts per game against their defense. Less than 10 shots per game for the Bulls effective or second most effective offensive weapon simply isn’t going to cut it.
Because the Raptors have so many tall defenders to bother DeRozan’s midrange game, Billy Donovan and his staff will have to think of creative ways to generate looks for DeRozan.
Actions where DeRozan screens for LaVine usually catch defenses off guard because of how rare they are. Even when DeRozan half-halfheartedly sets the screen–not making contact in many cases–the fact that he is moving and cutting results in an open look for himself or others when he commits to the cut, as in the clip below.
Unsurprisingly, in the lone regular season game the Bulls won against the Raptors, DeRozan acted almost exclusively as a decoy, collecting seven assists and only six shot attempts in 36 minutes of action. Zach LaVine led the way with 30 points on 20 shots and Nikola Vucevic chipped in 15 points. But the most important stat was the fact that Toronto’s aggressive double teams on DeRozan helped contribute to the combined 34 points from Patrick Williams, Ayo Dosunmu and Derrick Jones Jr.
The Raptors (21st in 3-PT FGA), like the Bulls (28th) aren’t going to get up a lot of 3-pointers. But they have more shooting and size than the Bulls, which will be a tough combination for Chicago to overcome, but they can.
Execution will need to be crisp, as the Bulls can’t afford to turn the ball over against a Raptors team that already has a strong advantage on the offensive glass.
Chicago can and probably should start their usual, defensive-minded group with Alex Caruso and Patrick Beverley but they can’t afford to stick with it if they fall behind early. When the Bulls go down big in games, their lack of 3-point shooting creates a hole that is almost impossible to dig out of.
Zach LaVine averages around seven 3-point attempts per game but Nick Nurse and Toronto always make sure to keep him under that figure. For the Bulls to have success on Wednesday, we need to see LaVine get up 3-point attempts early and often, both off the dribble and catch-and-shoots. We also need to see more minutes for Coby White to provide more space for DeRozan or LaVine-led units to operate.
LaVine has proven time and time again that he can absolutely dominate opposing bigs on switches and mismatches in transition, getting whatever shot he wants.
The Bulls need to leverage this advantage against an aggressive defense that will likely be scrambling a lot. Vucevic, Andre Drummond and the rest of the Bulls frontcourt players need to make sure to provide LaVine and DeRozan with high ball screens that provide them plenty of space to get downhill. The further out the screen is set, the better for Chicago’s hopes of advancing in the Play-In.
Despite the Raptors winning the regular season matchup with the Bulls, the matchup was a relatively close one overall. If the Bulls avoid careless turnovers, the way they have played as of late certainly profiles a team that can go on a late season run.
