Production vs Upside: The De’Andre Hunter vs Kevin Porter Jr. debate
Bulls Confidential’s Michael Walton II continues our “Production vs Upside” series, going back and forth on who you should select between two elite wing prospects.
De’Andre Hunter was on the radar of NBA Draft experts for years now but there is no doubt that he took a huge step forward in his sophomore season. What separates Hunter from most prospects — but especially the one we will compare him against in this post, Kevin Porter Jr. — is his ability to execute all aspects of defense at an extremely high level.
Hunter has massive hands, stands at 6-foot-7 with a 7-foot-2 wingspan. He can switch onto smaller guards for stretches but also has the strength to hold up against most power forwards and centers.
Staying in front of smaller guard:
Protecting the rim:
On top of that, Hunter is attentive when it comes to boxing out and again, he never he always keep his man and the ball in his line of vision.
But Kevin Porter’s defensive profile was interesting enough for me to play a game of “guess who?”
Player A: 1.2 steals, 1.2 blocks per 100 possessions
Player B: 2.1 steals, 1.3 blocks per 100 possessions
If you guessed that Player B was Porter, you must’ve watched a lot of Pac-12 basketball. Despite the fact that Hunter is unequivocally a superior defender to Porter, you can see that Porter was slightly ahead this season in terms of generating turnovers. And while he is behind in terms of defensive IQ, his superior athleticism allows him to block shots a wing has no business getting to.
Of course, Virginia plays their trademark pack-line defense that emphasizes keeping your man and the ball in front of you rather than gambling for particularly risky steals or blocks.
So, as the wonderful folks over at The Stepien have pointed out, Hunter could generate more turnovers at the NBA level depending on the defensive style of the team he gets drafted to. But ultimately old habits die hard, meaning that why Hunter is excellent on D, he won’t suddenly become a steals/blocks machine from day 1 in the league, if ever. So while I have no doubt Hunter will be a great and versatile NBA defender, he probably doesn’t have much untapped potential on that end of the floor.
Kevin Porter Jr. is one of my favorite prospects in the draft. Not because I necessarily he will become an NBA star, but because his path to becoming an NBA star is so intriguing and different from most. Before I get to his elite tools, it is only fair that I paint a quick picture of what Porter’s season was like at USC.
Coming into the year as a highly touted prospect expected to help change USC’s middling ways, Porter ended up having a rough year clouded by injuries, suspensions and being stuck in a system that definitely did not view him as the primary scoring option (that would be Bennie Boatwright). But even with raw numbers of PPG, RPG, APG, his flashes of brilliance are enough to warrant him being a top lottery prospect.
For starters, Porter’s stepback jumper is insanely effective. Devastating would be a great way to describe his signature move.
I started with Porter’s stepback because his ability to create shots for himself is the most obvious thing that separates him from De’Andre Hunter on offense.
Hunter possesses the ability to attack a closeout with a straight line drive but has little separation ability when it comes to intense on-ball pressure.
But NBA teams won’t be drafting Hunter for his shot creation. He is a very efficient offensive player, who scored quite a bit off of great setups from his teammates. Via data available at The Stepien, over 96 percent of Hunter’s NBA-range 3-pointers were assisted and over 34 percent of his shots at the rim were assisted. And he was lights-out from both areas, shooting 68.0 percent at the rim and 44.6 percent on 3s. Hunter gets the majority from the aforementioned shots at the rim, NBA 3-pointers, and long mid range shots, all areas with an established two-year track record of success for the Virginia forward.
Porter is a different breed. The James Harden comparisons seem ridiculous off top, but the numbers reveal an 18 year old who is scoring quite efficiently on shots with a high-degree of difficulty.
The data available at The Stepien has Porter taking the majority of his shots from (NBA) 3-point range but with only 50 percent of those 3-point makes coming via an assist. While he shows a penchant for scoring on jumpers off the dribble, Porter shoots an extremely high 70 percent at the rim with over 51 percent of those makes came off of an assist. But Porter took almost just as many mid range shots at shots at the rim, leaving a ton of efficiency on the table. This supports what the eye test shows, which is that he settles for his mid range jumper too often.
Both Porter and Hunter are decent playmakers, with obvious room to grow. Porter’s slick ball handling ability should give him a good chance to develop into an above average passer, but his playing style can result in many mistakes. The fact that he finished the year with 30 assists and 39 turnovers is deeply concerning.
Hunter’s ceiling has a lot to do with improving skill moves. He is a great finisher, and especially when fighting through contact after collecting an offensive board. Hunter doesn’t have the greatest burst off the floor but he uses his length well on offense. As he adds (potentially) even more strength and cleans up his ball handling skills, he could develop into a solid secondary play initiator who also can guard positions 1-through-5 on the floor.
Porter has that intense range of outcomes that could see him become anything from the second-best player in his class, to out of the league in several years, and it just depends on how hard he locks in on the defensive end of the floor from day one of NBA training camp. Though his low jumpshot release is concerning, Porter figures to get buckets in the NBA. And though he possesses the effortless ability to score at all three levels, it will be up to he and his next coaching staff to make sure he seeks out the right shots.
Ultimately, the USC coaching staff is what swings me in favor of Porter over Hunter more than anything. Not that the USC staff was awful — that being said…. — but the NBA will represent the best coaching he has received in his career without a close second.
Hunter has a high-floor and will likely be a plus defender as a rookie, an incredibly tough feat. His elite 3-point shooting (career 41.9 percent from 3-point range) will make him an obvious candidate to space the floor, but the fact that he is unlikely to get many reps as a pick-and-roll ball handler puts an obvious cap on his upside.
Porter is the prospect who is most likely to make me look ridiculous, as elite tools don’t necessarily project to NBA success. But he shows the ability to make the obvious dump off pass, and that pass will be available often at the NBA level considering how often he can beat his man off the dribble.
Porter reminds me of Zach LaVine a decent amount and not just because he is from South Seattle, WA. He reminds me of LaVine because the chunk of Porter’s offense — which means 30.52 percent of his field goal attempts — comes from the NBA 3-point range. Again, Porter is converting at an insane 70.73 percent rate at the rim but only had 41 attempts at the rim on the season.
If he gets the opportunity to be at least the secondary ball handler with an NBA squad, the added spacing and capable lob threats will unlock the full potential of Porter, allowing him to become a high-volume scorer with above average playmaking and defense. Though his track record of team suspensions and the inefficient nature of his shot selection leave a decent chance that he becomes an obvious bust, I would have no qualms about selecting Porter over Hunter, or very high in the lottery in general.
