Rudy Gobert Gives the Bulls a New Ceiling…but Does he Make Them Title Contenders?
The Rudy Gobert-to-Chicago rumor mill has started, so we address the elephant in the room: Is Gobert the missing piece to put the Bulls over the top?
If you are here, then you probably have seen the rumors connecting the seemingly soon-to-be-traded Rudy Gobert to the Chicago Bulls. On paper, it all makes sense. The Bulls have an aggressive front office that has not been shy about making big moves.
Chicago acquired former All-Star center Nikola Vucevic at the 2021 NBA trade deadline for Wendell Carter Jr., Otto Porter Jr. and two first round picks. That deal, of course, looks a lot more favorable to the Orlando Magic. That’s due to the semi-breakout season by Carter and the All-Rookie First Team season by versatile forward Franz Wagner. But that’s underplaying how central Vucevic’s contributions were to the most successful Bulls’ season in quite some time.
Vooch averaged 17.6 points, 11 rebounds and 3.2 assists across 73 regular season games. The big issue was that acquiring the Montenegrin center was as much about his floor spacing as his playmaking and rebounding. Vucevic shot 31.4% from 3-point range in the 2021–22 season, his work mark since 2018. He also shot 31% from 3-point range during the Bulls five-game series loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. If Vucevic can’t stretch the floor with his 3-point shooting as he used to, it makes him a bit more of a complicated fit with DeMar DeRozan and (possibly) Zach LaVine, who both need space to attack the rim.
So with Vucevic’s atrophying 3-point shooting being a reason to trade him…why bring in another non-floor spacer in Gobert?
The obvious answer is that Gobert is a three-time Defensive Player of the Year and that he would legitmately make the Bulls a top-10 defense. But even that is simplifying things a bit too much. His offense — albeit in a much different way — would be just as beneficial to Chicago and could provide a new offensive ceiling for the Frenchman’s game.
But first, the defense. Gobert led the league with a robust 14.7 rebounds per game. That figure was almost a full rebound more than the second place finisher, 2022 MVP Nikola Jokic. Gobert averaged 2.1 blocks per game and hasn’t averaged less than 2.0 blocks per game in any season where he received significant playing time.
Gobert makes the Bulls a top-10 defense because no matter what they give up in a deal because unlike Utah, they can pair a solid perimeter defense with the generational rim protector.
Over the 2021–22 season Gobert and Vucevic both finished in the top-10 of field goals defended per game among starting centers. Vucevic made opponents shoot 0.2% worse, while unsurprisngly, Gobert forced opponents to shoot 6.9% worse when defended by him. That dramatic difference is obviously significant and is something that Arturas Karnisovas and Marc Eversley are no doubt looking at when they ponder a possible deal.
Assuming a Gobert to the Bulls trade costs Chicago some combination of Patrick Williams or Coby White, Javonte Green, Nikola Vucevic and significant draft compensation, that leaves the Bulls with the makings of a potentially dominant defense that still has room for two offense-first players in LaVine and DeRozan.
A rotation with a healthy Lonzo Ball, Alex Caruso and Ayo Dosunmu provides you with plenty of guards to fight over screens, making drop coverage extremely viable with Gobert locking down the paint.
Chicago’s defense with Caruso, Dosunmu, Ball and Gobert would be able to pretty much force every opponent’s offense to become extremely midrange heavy. While some teams can punish this most opponents will miss a bevy of these shots, leading to the oh-so-valuable transition offense for the Bulls. But Gobert provides value on offense in the halfcourt too.
The “Gobert is great at accumulating screen assists” point has become a meme at this point but the point does still stand. Gobert is a much more physical screener than Vucevic and would free up LaVine and DeRozan with a ton of space at the 3-point line or in the midrange areas of the floor. Gobert does clog the paint by standing in the dunker spot otherwise, but his effectiveness as an offensive rebounder makes me less concerned about that weak spot. And, of course, Gobert’s ability as a lob threat could shine with Ball and Co. feeding him in the pick-and-roll.
Gobert was extremely efficient as the roll man in 2022, as he has been his whole career. Even when he doesn’t set a hard screen, he has become extremely adept at slipping the screen and quickly elevating for an easy finish.
What is interesting when projecting his fit with the Bulls is the fact that Vucevic had 6.6 possessions per game as the roll man, which led the NBA in 2022. Vooch’s success as a roll man came because he is such a talented passer, able to find open shooters while rumbling down the lane. On the flip side, Gobert’s effectiveness as the roll man comes from the more traditional big man ability to easily dunk or finish anything within five-feet of the basket.
Gobert shot 71% as the roll man and drew free throws on a whopping 25% of those pick-and-roll attempts. It is quite easy to see a team with DeRozan, LaVine and Gobert spending a lot of time in the bonus on offense, which would help mitigate the drop off in 3-point shooting with Vucevic out the door.
With a core of Gobert, DeRozan and LaVine, I legitimately think the Chicago Bulls are a top-3 team in the Eastern Conference. The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks have deep and talented cores but beyond those to two teams there are more questions than answers.
No one knows what to expect from the Brooklyn Nets, the Philadelphia 76ers have a massive decision to make on James Harden and the Miami Heat seem destined to shake up their roster following a gritty seven-game series loss to Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals. With Gobert operating in the paint on defense, Chicago could make a serious run to the Eastern Conference Finals as most teams in the East have an essential big man that they can not take off the floor (i.e. Bam Adebayo, Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokoumpo). This gives Billy Donovan a way to keep Gobert on the floor, simply matching up with those fellow behemoths one-on-one. On paper, the Boston Celtics are the one elite East team that seems extremely capable of downsizing and still retaining the most talent on the floor. With all of this being said, I am extremely in on the Gobert acquisition for Chicago but the remains one important point: the Chicago Bulls should NOT give up Patrick Williams in any Gobert deal.
Patrick Williams hasn’t played like a superstar but over an extremely limited 88-game career has shot 41.3% from 3-point range while showcasing flashes of being a physical and impactful defender. Williams’ numbers during the Bulls playoff series vs. the Bucks weren’t very noteworthy but he did finish up the postseason with back-to-back 20 point games including a double-double (with rebounds). If the Bulls keep Williams while adding Gobert, it increases the probablity that Williams can still turn into the Kawhi Leonard-lite of Bulls’ fans dreams, through scheme if not talent.
That is why if I’m Karnisovas and Eversely, the offer (or counter offer) to the Jazz is simple: the Bulls will give up Vucevic, Coby White and any legal combination of draft picks to get the deal done. The Jazz would surely understand that the Bulls are playing hardball in trying to not give up Williams.
But if Chicago was to give up two unprotected firsts — including this year’s 18th overall pick — with the Vucevic-White package, would that be enough to entice the Jazz to make the trade? Utah likely says no and requests that Chicago gets a third team involved to add more draft compensation, something that Karnisovas and Co. no doubt would be able to do.
But at that point, is it worth it for the Bulls to do that much work to add Gobert’s salary — which is over $40 million for three of the next four seasons — to their books? They would now have the talent to compete with the best among their starters but would have the unavoidable depth issues that comes with having (possibly) two players on a max contract.
In the end, I believe the Bulls should strongly pursue a Rudy Gobert deal as long as it doesn’t cost Patrick Williams.
Despite many people feeling that the general Bulls’ fan overrates Williams, it is undeniable that having a young player with potential on a rookie deal is key to presevering the longevity of a veteran-laden team.
Ball-DeRozan-LaVine-Williams-Gobert makes you a top-three team in the East on the fringes of title contention. However, giving up Williams in a Gobert trade makes the same impressive win-now team but leaves the Bulls without a surefire answer to the question of who becomes LaVine’s offensive running mate when (if?) DeRozan’s game declines? This becomes a moot point if Williams doesn’t develop into the solid secondary scorer that I believe he will eventually become, but either way it is bet that I would not be willing to make.
