Sensible Switch: Wendell Carter Jr. & Daniel Gafford poised for breakout years due to drop coverage scheme
The Bulls’ pick-and-roll defense will look a lot different in the 2020–21 season.
The Bulls' defense was solid in the 2020 season despite the obvious lack of wins. It was, of course, an odd, abbreviated season due to the COVID-19 pandemic that is still ongoing. But over their 65 games played, the Bulls were 9th in the league in defensive rating — 108.9 points allowed per 100 possessions — and possessed quite an impressive ability to force turnovers at a seemingly unsustainable rate. Thankfully, that system — at least in terms of being the “only” gameplan — seems to be headed out the door in favor of a more sensible and conservative defense:
Good news indeed, as Chicago’s gimmicky, trap-heavy scheme was figured out rather quickly by the elite teams in the league. Despite producing an extremely impressive 10.0 steals per game last season, the Bulls’ defense oftentimes left their big men in tough positions on the perimeter. This further exacerbated the Bulls’ bigs issues with defensive rebounding, which also extended to personnel [Editor’s note: LOOKING AT YOU LUKE KORNET].
The two players who will benefit the most from this shift are Carter and presumable backup center, Daniel Gafford.
Carter Jr. has no NBA accolades to speak of — All-Rookie team anyone? — but a clear reputation as a high-IQ prospect who can man the back end of a defense. With Jim Boylen and Co.’s super aggressive scheme gone, expect Carter (and Gafford) to often be executing a “deep drop”. The deep drop has the big man guarding the screener drop back far — often 10+ feet — and encourages the ballhandler to shoot a mid-range jumper or a difficult pull-up 3-pointer.
The Chicago guards and wings will have to be a lot more aggressive when it comes to sticking tight to their man and chasing them down from behind to bother shots. This will make life easier on Carter and Gafford, as we have clear evidence that these two can excel as big-time shot blockers:
A big plus of the drop coverage scheme is that the defensive rotations become a lot more simple for the players not directly involved in the pick-and-roll action. In drop coverage, if the ball-screen is moving away from you and you are the closest perimeter defender, you are the help defender (on the roll man, often a big). Compare this to last season, where Chicago’s defense was often scrambling with help coming from every direction due to the hyper-aggressive nature of their on-ball traps. It’s not hard to see how this will likely be a welcome adjustment from a (still) very young Bulls’ roster.
Many fans are bemoaning the loss of scrappy guard Kris Dunn, who is coming off of an All-Defensive-caliber season. But last year’s trap-heavy scheme was perfect for a player like Dunn who is so aggressive when going for steals. He can no doubt succeed in any defensive system, but drop back coverage puts less importance on guards like Dunn and Shaq Harrison, and more pressure on the bigs (Lauri Markkanen, Carter, Gafford, etc.).
Perhaps the most important team to look at when visualizing the Bulls utilizing this strategy is the Milwaukee Bucks:
Mike Budenholzer’s Bucks execute drop coverage better than any team in the league. It is no coincidence that Milwaukee had the best defensive rating (102.5) in the league last season.
The Bucks had plodding big man Brook Lopez in the middle, and he racked up a career-high 2.4 blocks per game while making the All-Defensive Second Team. Three of their five starters made an All-Defensive team. Carter is smaller than Lopez but more mobile.
Carter obviously doesn’t have the same experience level, but with his massive 7'3'’ wingspan, it is easy to imagine Carter having a trajectory that leads him to make several All-Defensive teams over the next three-to-five seasons (under Donovan). And Gafford — a defensive beast in his own right — led the Bulls in block rate (8.7%) and total blocks (56) by a wide margin at just 21-years old. Expect him to improve just as much as Carter over the 2020–21 season.
Everything the Bulls have done this offseason lines up with the idea that Billy Donovan, Marc Eversley, and Arturas Karnisovas are working in unison to build the Bulls into a winner again. And though it might not be obvious, their personnel decisions — or lack thereof — and schematic changes on defense signal much more interesting and competitive Bulls basketball in 2021 and beyond. Stay tuned.
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