Wendell The Wise
Wendell Carter Jr. will be the backbone 2019–20 Bulls defense but could be much more if empowered by the coaching staff.
Wendell Carter Jr. was a 19-year-old center last season. This is the first thing that needs to be pointed out when breaking down Carter’s rookie year and discussing his future. When you look at Carter on film, you immediately notice that he moves with purpose, a player who knows what he is supposed to do. This feel for the game shows up at various times throughout the course of a game but especially on defense.
Per FiveThirtyEight’s new defensive stat DRAYMOND, Wendell Carter ranked as a positive defender (+0.65 DRAYMOND Rating), a few spots behind Robert Covington but a few spots ahead of Jimmy Butler (!!). This, of course, does not mean that Carter is a better defender than Jimmy Butler but it is an accurate reflection of the great defensive effort Carter gave despite the Bulls being a terrible defensive team. His effort on that end of the floor produced plenty of highlights that showed his awareness.
Carter’s raw numbers showcase his defensive ability just as much. He averaged 1.3 blocks and 0.6 steals per game while leading the Bulls in defensive box plus/minus. Carter is a year older and will get to share minutes with Thaddeus Young (-.08 DRAYMOND Rtg, 2.1 Defensive BPM), whose versatile defensive will allow him to focus even more on deterring shots at the rim.
Carter grabbed just under 29 percent of the Bulls defensive rebounds when he was on the floor and without Robin Lopez on the roster, there will be even more pressure on him to clean up the defensive glass.
I fully expect Carter — who will play more than 25 minutes per game this season — to be more active on the boards, even if his raw rebounding stats don’t improve. He will spend ample time boxing out (oftentimes bigger) centers and leaving uncontested rebound opportunities for relatively big guards Coby White (6-foot-5) and Tomas Satoransky (6–foot-7).
I’ve laid out how Carter is already a solid defender with great feel and will improve on that end of the floor with new personnel and coaches surrounding him. Boylen — as we all know — is a defense-first coach and both Young and Satoransky will fight over screens, providing even more time for Carter to corral guards who get downhill in pick-and-roll action.
But the offensive side of the floor was where we saw Carter misused. If the Bulls empower Carter with some more playmaking responsibility, we could really see his game take off.
Post-up shots made up about 18 percent of Carter’s total offense but he was a lackluster enough post scorer for that part of his game to be subdued in favor of more spot-up jumpers and pick-and-roll opportunities.
Carter’s 0.625 points per possession (PPP) on post-ups ranked in the 10th percentile, AKA “not very good at all, in fact, bad”. He lacked the strength to deal with burlier bigs and as Cole mentioned, his small hands (for the position) can lead to difficulties catching tough passes but he is a smart enough player to work around this issue.
As his post-game improves over time with added strength, the best way for the Bulls to continue to build Carter’s confidence on offense is with more involvement through Dribble Handoff (DHO) plays.
He only averaged 1.8 assists in 2018–19 but according to data from NBA.com, he averaged 3.4 “potential assists” per game, showing that there were some playmaking opportunities left on the table. If Carter was able to get those 3.4 assists per game he would have been part of an exclusive club.
Last season only eight players averaged over 10 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists and 1 block per game and of those eight, five were All-Stars. Carter’s defense will not drop off, so all signs point to him becoming an All-Star caliber big man as long as those opportunities to handle the ball on offense come around.
With players like Satoransky, Markkanen, White (NCAA) and Denzel Valentine all being better than 35% shooters from 3-point range for their career, Carter will be able to take even longer when processing what options are available to him in the post, as defenses won’t want to provide clean looks for any of those mentioned shooters.
Carter is a gifted playmaker and even without ample opportunity in the 2018–19 season, the numbers bear this out. Carter had a higher assist percentage (10.7%) than all five of the bigs drafted ahead of him in 2018 (Ayton, Bagley, Jackson and Bamba) but also had the second-lowest usage rate of this group. That needs to change big time in 2020.
Notice that I haven’t mentioned Carter’s 3-point shot yet. While I desperately want him to get back to the player he was in college (41.3% from 3-point range) or even the player he was in the month of October last season (33.3% from 3), Carter’s ability to space the floor isn’t as crucial with Kris Dunn likely out as the starting PG. But the fact that WCJ possesses the ability to shoot it — however little used — adds more value to his ability to initiate offense.
In an ideal world, Carter is used more like Nikola Jokic in the 2019–20 season and beyond.
Carter can be used in a DHO from anywhere on the floor, but the middle of the floor with LaVine flying off of another screen first is usually the best call. Boylen isn’t likely to encourage him to shoot jumpers if the defense stays tight on the handoff but he certainly would encourage him to get “downhill” and attack the rim. Carter shot 79.5% from the free throw line in 2018–19 and being an aggressive free throw-magnet will make life easier on the Bulls in general.
With his potential to be a high-efficiency, low-usage player on offense and the reality of him being the backbone of the defense, Wendell Carter Jr. will be the key to the Bulls being a playoff team in the 2019–20 season.
