What’s the blueprint for a successful 2018–19 season from Jabari Parker?
The former No. 2 overall pick has taken an incredible amount of heat but has been disappointing through 24 games. What’s the best he could possibly play with the Bulls?
Jabari Parker is an incredibly talented basketball player, one who can be incredibly frustrating but is still working his way back after an abbreviated 2017–18 season. In 2018–19, Parker is averaging 16.6 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 2.7 turnovers and shooting 45.5 percent from the field.
His field goal percentage is at a career low but he has slowly been rounding into form. Parker is averaging 19 points, 8 rebounds and 2 assists on 47 percent shooting over his last 10 games.
Here is the blueprint for a successful 2018–19 season for Jabari Parker.
1. (Only) Attack off of mismatches on offense
With Parker, you can often find moments of offensive brilliance sandwiched between awful defensive efforts and terrible turnovers. But when he has everything working on offense, he can still get buckets in a hurry:
There are specific plays that allow Parker these opportunities: 1–3 (point guard/small forward) pick-and-rolls where Parker can get a smaller guard on him.
Dribble handoffs with Lauri Markkanen, where defenses have to respect Markkanen’s jumper, opening up the middle of the floor for Parker to attack.
Post ups against Parker’s natural defensive assignment if it is a traditional small forward (think Jae Crowder, Miles Bridges, Wesley Johnson). Just take a look at what happened to Trevor Ariza when he tried to contain an aggressive Parker down-low:
Parker is averaging 1.25 points per possession on post up plays. It’s one of the most effective ways for him to generate a good look for Parker and Markkanen’s return could actually open up the floor for more post-up chances.
2. Stop trying to be a point-forward (AKA make the simple play)
This one may seem a little counter-intuitive at first glance. Yes, it sounds awful to say Parker should look for his teammates less, but let me clarify this point. Parker needs to look for more “hockey assists” and make sure that he is always making the simple play. Hitting singles, as Warriors head coach Steve Kerr likes to say.
Parker is an extremely talented passer and listened to coach Fred Hoiberg, who has wanted the Chicago-native to think of himself in that role. But the problem for Parker as a primary playmaker is that he is still too turnover-prone to make his passing skills a serious asset.
He is averaging just as many assists (2.4) as turnovers (2.7) per game and a big part of this comes from his dribble-drive game.
So far in 2018–19, Parker is 2nd on the Bulls in terms of drives per game (7.9) but is also 3rd in turnover percentage on drives. He is looking to drive-and-kick but is firing a reckless pass into the stands for every awesome dime he drops.
Parker is at his best when he is thinking of himself as a “score-first” player. In his best season in 2016–17, his 2.8 assists and 1.8 turnovers per game were a result of him balancing attacking off the pass and off the dribble. He made quick decisions and feasted on shots at the basket.
In Chicago, he would be wise to focus more on big man skills rather than playmaking and ball-handling. If Parker improved at boxing out, screen setting and sealing his man early in the post, he would be a much more effective (and therefore valuable) player.
Teams aren’t respecting his 3-point shot but Parker deserves a ton of credit for actually shooting more 3-pointers, which so many players — who haven’t relied on the shot heavily at other stages of their career — are reluctant to do.
But while Parker’s 3.7 attempts per game from 3-point range are great, I would like to see that number even higher. He is still a solid finisher and bombing even more 3-pointers would make him a tougher cover even if his percentage didn’t improve. It’s the threat of taking the outside shot that keeps defenses honest.
And when driving to the basket, cutting down the number of times he pass out should (theoretically) increase the number of free throw attempts he receives. Parker still looks tentative when attacking the rim despite his moderate success rate.
He doesn’t have the bounce to finish over the top of elite, athletic shot-blockers anymore but simply getting his body into opponents would force the referees to make a call one way or the other. Parker — at a listed 250 lbs — has the size to be a very physical matchup for most small forwards and a decent number of power forwards. But his penchant for passing out of drives and pulling up for mid-range shots bails out opponents who don’t want to (or can’t) matchup well with his strength finishing through contact.
3. EXCLUSIVELY play Jabari Parker as a power forward
With Lauri Markkanen back in the rotation, it will obviously be hard for Hoiberg to resist having the trio of Markkanen, Carter and Parker on the floor for stretches, but he should.
Parker is no longer a 3 in today’s NBA. It seems obvious…..because it is. He has nowhere near the foot speed to be a reliable switch defender but his solid defensive rebounding is more than enough to make him a capable drop-coverage option.
The Bulls (relatively) new starting lineup of Ryan Arcidiacono, Zach LaVine, Justin Holiday, Jabari Parker and Carter has a defensive rebound rate of 74.5 percent. This mark would be 6th in the league and that great defensive rebounding rate with that group is a big part of what has made the Bulls a top-12 defense in November.
Final Verdict:
The ceiling for 2018–19 Jabari Parker is an elite backup power forward. The issue of course being whether or not the Bulls view the returning Bobby Portis as a power forward, center or both.
I see Parker finishing the year with a stat line of 16 pts/6 rebounds/3 assists, which would be awesome bench production as long as the turnover go down and the shooting percentages go up. He is not a small forward in any shape or form, which gives the Bulls front office an interesting decision as the trade deadline approaches.
Portis will be a restricted free agent this offseason, while Parker will have the $20 million team-option. The Bulls gave themselves an a solid — though it may not seem like it now — option for backup PF should Portis get an offer that is too rich for their blood. Right now, Parker would have that option declined and would re-negotiate at a lower annual salary but there is still a ton of season left.
It obviously sounds crazy now, but there is still very much a path to Parker being a player worth that $20 million option, it just isn’t extremely likely.
But that doesn’t mean the Bulls should just give up trying to maximize his value. Whenever you sift through Parker’s numbers you can find figures showing off his skill level. He is shooting 72 percent on his paint touches but does not get nearly enough at 2.7 per game. That is a nugget I pulled specifically to show how Markkanen’s arrival benefits him. Lauri is a player who will be doing most of his work from beyond the arc — even if his post game is improved — and that should allow Fred Hoiberg to get creative with his high-low offensive sets.
Getting back on defense in transition and being aware off-ball are things that Parker can get better at, he just has to want to. And that difference between being able to get better and wanting to get better is a big one, one that makes or breaks careers. Hoiberg can’t increase Parker’s effort level — beyond raising his voice and/or taking minutes away, both things that don’t sound like great options — but he can put the forward into more advantageous positions, while still keeping Markkanen’s development as the top priority.
