Where Does Patrick Williams Fit In With The Bulls Next Season?
There are high expectations for the 2nd year forward but can his game grow next to three high-usage All-Stars?
Patrick Williams made the most of limited touches last season. He made 2nd Team All-Rookie with averages of 9.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game with shooting splits of 48/39/72 (FG/3PT/FT).
Williams spent his first year guarding the best wing scorers on opposing teams and spent his fair share of time bruising low post scorers. His defensive versatility — as expected — didn’t result in dominant Year 1 on defense, but he still showed promise on that end on the floor, no small feat for a 19-year old.
Offensively, Williams was extremely efficient on a very small usage rate. He scored 16 points per 100 possessions and overall showcased that he could clearly be a double-digit point scorer under the right circumstances.
Next season — with Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic all vying for touches — doesn’t appear to be the right circumstances for Williams to become a potent scorer. However, with some help from Billy Donovan, I believe we will still see some important growth from Williams with the new-look Bulls.
Here are the key things to watch in Patrick Williams’ 2nd year in the league:
Defense (A Whole Lot Of It)
Williams will be depended on to bring almost All-NBA level defense on a nightly basis for Chicago in the 2022 season.
The main reason to have some concern for the DeMar DeRozan move is that he has never been known as an even close to average defender. Billy Donovan can play around with putting DeRozan on the weakest offensive player on the opposing team due to Williams existence, but either way teams will still hunt putting DeRozan and Vucevic in pick-and-roll actions.
This will put a ton of stress on Williams, Lonzo Ball, Alex Caruso, and others when making rotations off-ball. But all three of the players I just named are skilled when it comes to forcing turnovers, something that could become quite important to what looks like a defensively-deficient Bulls team.
Players guarded by Patrick Williams shot 1.7% worse in the 2021 season. He produced a 1.2% block rate and a 1.4% steal rate — both above average marks — over 71 games.
As a player with average speed for a wing but above-average speed for a PF, incredible strength and a high basketball-IQ, it easy to see how Williams biggest improvement could come on the defensive end of the floor.
Defending seems to rank among one of Williams’ favor things to do on the court and next season the Bulls will depend on his for that skill.
The offense will likely come easy for Chicago but their overall success could quite literally hinge on Williams’ ability to be a difference-maker on the defensive end of the floor.
Efficiency On Spot-Ups/Catch-and-Shoot Opportunities
In the 2020–21 season, Williams took just under two catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts per game, making them at an impressive 39% rate. He needs to shoot more in general, but catch-and-shoot 3-pointers appear to be the easiest way to boost Williams’ offensive efficiency.
In his role with the 2021–22 Bulls, there will be more than enough catch-and-shoot opportunities for Williams to make significant strides in the shooting department. Take a look at Williams’ highest-scoring game from last season, a 24-point outburst against the Brooklyn Nets.
Williams takes smart shots and only smart shots. But the key is, Williams needs to get a bit outside of his comfort zone.
In the above highlight video, at 11 seconds you see Williams turn down an open 3-point shot with James Harden closing out on him. Williams decides to take a one-dribble pull-up midrange shot that he makes. Despite the fact that he makes the shot, you can see where the next part of the process will come.
If Williams takes the 3-point shot instead of the midrange jumper, there is still a solid chance he knocks it down. Again, he is a 39% 3-point shooter and in that above specific instance, Harden was doing more a “stunt”/lunge than a full closeout.
It’s a lot to process all at once but the more Williams confidently takes 3s rather than hunting shots in the midrange, the higher his overall efficiency will be (even if his numbers don’t seem as impressive).
The 2021–22 season will provide plenty of opportunities to see if Williams is more comfortable attacking from the 3-point line rather than the midrange area.
By adding Vucevic last season and DeRozan this offseason — two players who spend a ton of time in the midrange area — the Bulls’ front office has literally forced Williams into a situation where he will have to work on sharpening up his weaknesses.
His Role In The Pick-and-Roll (Roll Man or Ball Handler or Both?)
According to Play-by-Play information from Basketball-Reference.com, Patrick Williams spent 57% of his minutes at small forward and 41% of his minutes at power forward in the 2021 season. This put Williams at a slight disadvantage as he spent the majority of his time guarding wings who are much quicker than him on the perimeter.
The addition of DeRozan — who will likely play a lot of SF — will push Williams to what I feel is his natural position of power forward (PF).
Entering the 2022 season, Chicago will likely start games with four players who can run the pick-and-roll as the ball handler in LaVine, Ball, DeRozan, and Williams.
Despite his past as a high school point guard and the ball skills he has already shown, Williams was very limited in the pick-and-roll last season. Williams was the pick-and-roll ball handler for 10% of his possessions and the pick-and-roll screener for a mere 1.5% of his possessions per NBA.com.
Williams got to the rim for a decent chunk of his offense last season despite not really functioning as a roll man. He shot 65% at the rim in 2021 per Cleaning The Glass, which ranks in the 60th percentile among forwards.
The fact that Williams is a great finisher at the basket and a proficient 3-point shooter makes him an obvious threat to pick-and-pop or roll as a screener.
Screening is a physical and taxing skill, so obviously the Bulls won’t want to overdo it in terms of utilizing Williams as a screener. But, it is just as possible that Donovan allows Patrick to function more as a pick-and-roll ball handler next to Vucevic and/or Tony Bradley, which develops an entirely different skill set. The new shape of the Bulls roster allows Donovan to push Williams’ development into interesting directions.
More Attacks In Transition + Better Free Throw Shooting
The Bulls finished the 2021 season 13th in the league in pace but it wasn’t really reflective of how they played in their final iteration.
Chicago started the season playing relatively fast with their core group of Wendell Carter Jr., LaVine, White, Markkanen, and Williams. Post-Vucevic trade, the Bulls ranked 25th in the league in pace.
The Bulls were clearly two different teams at points last season but Williams was a beast in transition whether Chicago was playing fast or slow.
Patrick Williams finished the 2021 season with a 16.7% free throw rate in transition, which is third on the Bulls behind LaVine and Tomas Satoransky.
He also shot over 56% from the field in transition, scoring 1.13 points per possession.
While Williams isn’t the quickest player, he has an impressive amount of strength packed into an already large 6-foot-7, 215 lb.-frame.
When he is headed downhill with a full head of steam, Williams is tough to stop without fouling.
The main issue here is that Williams’ 72% free throw percentage left a lot on the table. It’s tough to imagine a player with a capable 3-point shot being a below-average free throw shooter for long, but nonetheless, Williams needs to prove that he can shoot it better from the charity stripe. Better free throw shooting from Williams will simply help his confidence and be a boon to his already effective transition offense.
Could Patrick Williams Turn into the Best Cutter In The NBA?
Williams could easily turn into one of the best cutters in the league next season. All of the ingredients for this development are already in Chicago.
The main issue for Williams in his rookie season was his sometimes frustratingly low usage rate. Of course, we don’t know whether this was his choice or the coaching staff’s idea, but more Williams involvement on offense certainly would’ve been great overall.
The average usage rate usually hovers around 20% and Williams was at 13.6% in 2021, a figure that put his involvement on offense closer to players like Ryan Arcidiacono and Daniel Gafford than LaVine and others. While the DeRozan addition specifically makes it seem like Williams will never get shots or touches, but honestly, the end result could be the exact opposite.
With DeRozan initiating pick-and-rolls with Vucevic and others, defenses will be keying in on stopping this action. This allows Williams to sneak in behind set defenses for an easy layup.
This is something that Williams has shown an ability to do at a high level, even dating back to his time at Florida State (Williams is #4 in the clip below.)
Williams shot 75% from the field on cuts, scoring an impressive 1.35 points per possession. If Williams is able to build off of his scoring efficiency on cuts from 2021, he would rank among players like Kevin Durant and LeBron James in terms of points per possession.
Throughout the 2022 season you will see opposing defenses concerned with Ball’s dynamic passing, Vucevic’s inside-out game, DeRozan’s mid-post scoring, and LaVine’s shooting. Chicago’s core now gives opposing defenses quite a bit to think about and Williams’ ability to find empty spaces on the floor for open shots will likely be his best route to contribute to winning halfcourt offense this upcoming season.
