Which Teams Have Ability to Make Zach LaVine a Serious Offer?

Sunday marks the day other teams can negotiate a contract with Bulls restricted free agent Zach LaVine. Restricted meaning if Lavine signs a contract with another team, the Bulls will then have two days too match that contract and keep LaVine. The Bulls have until Friday to make LaVine restricted by offering him the qualifying offer, which I will say is 100 percent guaranteed to happen at some point up until that date. He will get opportunity to talk to teams who are interested in signing him, but the 2018 market will not be friendly. One, LaVine is not coming off a great season. He only played in 24 games coming off ACL surgery. While expected, LaVine looked rusty and struggled getting into a rhythm. While at times played really well and flashed high offensive potential, he didn’t exactly make himself a can’t miss free agent this off-season. Then there is the market for 2018. There are not many teams who will have significant cap space, significant meaning over $15 million. LaVine will enter a market that won’t have many offers thrown at him. Cap flexibility is bad for a lot of teams, which is what is needed to make a serious run at LaVine. But all it takes is one team. One team who does have flexibility with their cap space, and can sign LaVine to a contract that can look like four years, $90 to 113 million. Those figures are high, but likely the type of money it would take for the Bulls to even consider not matching. Let’s look at some teams who have cap flexibility, and could make LaVine an offer like that.

Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta will begin the off-season with about $14 million in space, and will have the ability to open about $23 million in space. Atlanta can choose to renounce some of their holds or waive some of their nonguaranteed contracts to open more space. Atlanta is early in their rebuild, and I’m not sure they are looking to be aggressive this off-season. I see them as more of a team who will likely use space to take on contracts for other teams looking to open space, or easing tax bill. Of course if the front office sees value in LaVine, it is possible Atlanta could show interest. They can offer a contract with a starting salary starting at around $23 million, and could make roster moves to offer LaVine’s max. I would say though Atlanta is unlikely to offer LaVine a contract.

Brooklyn Nets

Brooklyn will not have much cap flexibility to start the off-season, but it is possible for them to create more. I have them projected at about $6 million for their likely space, which won’t be enough to make a run at LaVine. But if Brooklyn can move contracts like Carroll and/or Lin into space, then they can get to about $20 million or more in cap space. There is also the report the Nets will look to work a buyout with center Dwight Howard, which will give them more space if they can agree to one. Though the buyout of Dwight could mean the Nets aren’t really looking to be competitive next season, and perhaps will be more concerned with developing their player next off-season. They do finally have rights to their own draft pick in 2019, so they finally benefit from losing in theory. I think the Nets are more focused on using space in 2019 and 2020, so I don’t think the Nets will be aggressive this off-season. But there have also been rumors of Brooklyn trying to move Lin this offseason, so perhaps they are keeping their options open for the 2018 offseason as well. I say unlikely for now.

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas is starting the 2018 offseason over the cap, but has the ability to open around $27 million in space. Dallas has a lot of cap holds that will count against their salary, and they will need to renounce those to get under the cap. Dallas seems like they will be aggressive this off-season, as you are hearing them interested in players like DeMarcus Cousins and Julius Randle. Dallas has the money for not only those two, but LaVine as well. If they see value in LaVine, this could be a team to look out for. Dallas is a team that can offer LaVine a contract up to his max, and has a owner who likes to be aggressive in free agency. I say there is decent chance Dallas offers LaVine a contract.

Indiana Pacers

I project the Indiana Pacers to start the off-season over the cap, but the ability to get to $30 million in space is there. That will mainly depend on what Thaddeus Young does with his player option. If he opts in, then that likely hood of space drops to about $17 million. Young has to decide by Friday if he wants to return or test free agency, and there are rumors he is considering opting out. But with Victor Oladipo, would Indiana want LaVine? Again, it really comes down to how much their front office value’s LaVine. If they do, then they can get aggressive when it comes to pursuing LaVine. Whether Young opts out or not, Indiana could be a team that will pursue LaVine. Young opting out, makes it more likely and gives them ability to offer up to LaVine’s max. If Young opted in, they could try to trade Young or make other moves. I think if Indiana was to pursue free agents, then I think they would go more the Aaron Gordon or Jabari Parker route over LaVine.

Los Angeles Clippers

Whether or not the Clippers will have cap space this off-season depends heavily on DeAndre Jordan opting out. If he doesn’t, then the Clippers aren’t really in the conversation without multiple roster moves. But if he opts out, then the Clippers are projected to have about $14 million in space possible. While that won’t be enough to make a significant offer for LaVine, if they really value LaVine they can create more space. They would have to find a team to take on players like Rivers or Boban while not taking back much salary, which is definitely possible. Or even waive and stretching Boban’s contract and moving a player like Dekker into space. If Jordan opts out by Friday, the Clippers are a team I could see getting aggressive for LaVine.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers have the most cap flexibility this off-season. With Randle’s hold they can get to $48 million in space, without the hold they can get too 60 million. Only $25 million is needed to make LaVine a max offer. The Lakers have been heavily rumored around the higher level free agents, Paul George and LeBron James. And rumor has it if Lakers miss on those two, they will reserve space for 2019. Meaning them pursuing LaVine at this point is unlikely. But if Magic Johnson likes LaVine, the Lakers are easily a team that could make LaVine a max offer. I don’t see the Lakers likely to pursue LaVine, as they seem to be more interested in bringing in an established star. But you never know.

New York Knicks

The Knicks cap flexibility will depend on one thing, and that is if Enes Kanter is opting out. The Knicks need Kanter to opt out for space to be possible, if he opts out then the Knicks can open up about $20 million in space. But with Hardaway Jr and Courtney Lee making a lot of money at LaVine’s position, I’m not sure how interested New York would be in offering another shooting guard near $20 million a season. But again, if New York thinks highly of LaVine and Kanter opts out, then it is possible. I say unlikely though.

Philadelphia 76ers

I project the 76ers to be over the cap to start the off-season, but the ability to get to $26 to 28 million is there. Again, $25 million is what is needed to offer LaVine a max, and the 76ers have that space. For them to get to that much space they would have to renounce all holds and waive all nonguaranteed money, something they would only do until needed. 76ers are one of those teams also rumored to be targeting higher level free agents like LeBron and Paul George. But if they miss on those two, it is possible they can look at LaVine. I personally don’t think LaVine really fits what Philadelphia should be looking for with that space, but if they value LaVine, they could make it interesting.

Phoenix Suns

Phoenix will start the off-season over the cap, but if they waive their non-guaranteed contracts and renounce their exceptions then they can get to about $17.5 million in space. If they can move someone like Dudley or Daniels, then Phoenix can offer a contract starting at $20 million or more. Waive and stretch would work as well. Phoenix does already have a shooting guard with tons of potential in Devin Booker, so I’m not sure if Phoenix would want to pursue Lavine. Phoenix has other needs, that LaVine doesn’t really fix. But Phoenix could use talent, and perhaps LaVine is a talent they like. I say unlikely though unless they make a significant offer.

Sacramento Kings

Sacramento will start the offseason over the cap, but another team with flexibility to create cap space. If they renounce Carter and Caboclo and their exceptions, then Sacramento will have about $17 million in space. If Temple opts out, then they would have about $25 million in space. If Temple opts in, then Sacramento would have too trade Temple or Koufos into space, or waive and stretch one of their contracts for them to offer LaVine a starting salary at $20 million a season. Simply put, the Kings are a team to worry about when it comes to offering LaVine a significant contract. While Kings have Buddy Hield at shooting guard, he hasn’t shown he should be locked in at the starting position. If Sacramento thinks highly of LaVine, this is a team that I could see making LaVine a significant offer.

Utah Jazz

The Jazz will not have cap space to start the offseason. For them too have space, the need to renounce most of their cap holds and waive most of their nonguaranteed contracts. Basically creating space will cost them Favors and Exum. Theoretically possible Utah agrees to a new contract with those two, with the first season season’s salary significantly less than what their holds are now. Which in theory could let Utah keep both, waive nonguaranteed money and get to about $6 to 8 million in space. And the try to move someone like Alec Burks into space, to get to about $18 to 20 million in space. But if Utah is looking to create cap space, I don’t see them doing it to pursue LaVine. Donvoan Mitchell seems to do just fine at the position.

Looking at these 11 teams, there aren’t many I see being interested in LaVine. But seems to me the teams the Bulls have to worry about are the Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Clippers (if Jordan opts out), Philadelphia 76ers, and Sacramento Kings. Those four teams I could see offering LaVine a significant contract. Maybe even his max. If I had to predict, I think the Kings are a team the Bulls should look out for the most. One thing to keep in mind is they don’t have their pick next draft (unless it’s the top pick). This could make them more aggressive this off-season.

1. Sacramento Kings
2. Los Angeles Clippers
3. Dallas Mavericks

Those three teams in that order are who I think will be the most aggressive going after LaVine, while Philadelphia could become more desperate if they miss on higher level free agents.