Zach LaVine’s Bird Rights Give Bulls Opportunity to Rebuild Aggressively

Zach LaVine is a restricted free agent at the end of this season, and his value as a central figure in the Chicago Bulls rebuild makes his restricted free-agency an interesting one. There will most likely be few challengers for LaVine’s services.

Among the teams who project to have the cap-space to make a sizable offer for LaVine, only the Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Lakers could use the talents of a score-first guard. The Lakers have openly stated their preference to land a star in free agency, and the 76ers have to figure out how what to do with Markelle Fultz before making big additions. Philadelphia can also add help through the draft or free agency, where players will obviously cost them less than LaVine.

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Unlike free agency in past years, teams are being more patient with their cap-space. One bad contract can cost you a first-round pick, and perhaps much more in today’s NBA market. But the Chicago Bulls are in a place where they are looking to establish continuity. And with Chicago having Bird Years on LaVine, he will surely be in Chicago for a awhile. Here is a great explanation of “Bird Years” from HoopsHype.com:

The Bulls, for instance, will have a cap hold worth about $9.6MM for Zach LaVine on their 2018/19 books — 300% of his $3.2MM salary for 2017/18. Chicago could renounce LaVine and clear an extra $9.6MM in cap space, but the Bulls would lose his Bird rights if they did that, which would force them to use either cap room or a different cap exception to re-sign him.

Instead, the Bulls will likely use LaVine’s Bird rights and his cap hold strategically, perhaps using their cap space on other free agents and/or trades while LaVine’s $9.6MM cap hold remains on the books. The Bulls could then circle back and use Bird rights to sign LaVine to a contract with a starting salary much higher than $9.6MM.

Ultimately, the Bird exception was designed to allow teams to keep their best players.

Only Gar Forman and John Paxson truly know the blueprint for this current iteration of the Bulls. But with a nice futures draft pick situation, the second-lowest payroll in the league, and Bird Rights on LaVine, there is no reason for this situation not to result in a Michael Scott-level win-win-win, where the not only do both the Bulls front office and LaVine win, but the fans do too.

Table the Tank-Talk

As of the day I am writing this, Zach LaVine is starting to round into form. In 13 games he has produced 17.3 points per game on 40.8 percent shooting, and 37.9 percent from the 3-point line. He is currently averaging 20 ppg over his last 10 games. LaVine has also amassed a worthy collection of dunks as a Bulls in a short span of time. Early indication is that he wants to be a Bull for the long haul. Assuming a lack of suitors, the Bulls will be able to give a serious look at free agents who fit their timeline.

Expect clear-cut fits to get offers from the Bulls. This list would include players like restricted free agents Clint Capela and (Chicago native) Jabari Parker. Both these players could feel holes at center and small forward respectively. However, past history indicates that Gar Forman would give wildcards like DeMarcus Cousins a look if he thought the move had real traction and support from Fred Hoiberg. Of course, something like Cousins to the Bulls is the unlikeliest of unlikely situations, but the overall point is the Bulls can add a serious piece to an already impressive core and retain LaVine.

Ultimately, I expect to see the Bulls work some free-agency deals as LaVine and his team patiently wait for the details to be worked out. His agent is Bill Duffy, the same man who infamously negotiated a max, five-year $148 million deal and then was fired shortly thereafter. So Duffy will make the argument that LaVine is the Bulls star player — which arguably he is, though my favorite Bull is Kris Dunn no doubt — and that he should paid accordingly.

LaVine falls into the zero-to-six years experience range, and thus will be eligible for up to 25 percent of the maximum projected 2018–19 NBA salary cap of $103 million, which would be $25.75 million per year. Unless the Milwaukee Bucks are completely disinterested in retaining SF/PF Jabari Parker, I don’t see the Bulls doing much in free agency. If they don’t take a big man in this upcoming draft, they will likely be making Capela a handsome offer to be their long-term center.

Looking at players in LaVine’s age-range helps us estimate his likely deal. Gary Harris is signed for $84 million over four years, Otto Porter for four years, $107 million, and Wiggins for five years, $150 million.

By my own calculations, I believe Zach LaVine will end up with a maximum contract extension that is approximately five years, $149.35 million. His salary would start at $25.75 million in 2019–20, with 8% percent annual raises moving forward per the new CBA. It is comparable to his former teammate Wiggins, and accurately represents his value as the center piece of the team.

If things go as I expect, the Bulls will move forward and have a great amount of cap-space in 2020–21. In that season, LaVine will be aking max money, but Markkanen will be under a team-option, and Dunn will be the only core player due for a new contract. This is critical because it puts the Bulls in great position to be one of the more attractive options of the many, many teams in the running for Chicago-native and NBA-All Star Anthony Davis.

A Bulls fan can dream right?

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