Book review: The Expectation Effect

How our beliefs and expectations shape our future

This will be a relatively short review since the book is not long and the message can be conveyed quickly. To summarize in a sentence: The Expectation Effect uses scientific studies to prove that our expectations about the future can have a surprisingly large effect on eventual outcomes.

Recently I published a well-received article in which I explained how spending time with a wealthy financier forced me to reevaluate my beliefs about money. Observing this multi-millionaire interacting with the world subconsciously reshaped my own beliefs about how I think about wealth. Call it a transition from working class expectations, to wealthy expectations.

The Expectation Effect is replete with examples of how our expectations shape our future. My favorite example has to do with aging. According to the book, people who believe that old age will be filled with maladies and misery, they bring that reality onto themselves! When a younger person expects that their body will break down in their 70s and 80s, it often turns out to be true.

On the other hand, when someone believes that they’ll remain physically robust and unencumbered by ailments in their golden years, this outcome tends to manifest! Obviously, having a certain set of beliefs is no magic pill with a 100% success rate. Anyone can get sick at any time. However, the data paints a compelling picture that our beliefs about old age have a statistically significant effect on how we age (or don’t age, you could say).

There are many other examples like this in the book. Themes such as visualization, believing in an outcome, manifesting your goals, etc. Are all widely covered in new age literature, and indeed in many historical texts of a spiritual bent. However, The Expectation Effect’s claims are backed by empirical evidence.

Here’s another example from the book. Researchers approached a group of hotel maids and asked them how much exercise they got on the job. Most of the maids answered that they got little exercise, I.e. their expectation was that they would burn few calories while working. The researchers then conducted an A/B study.

• Group A — They had the cleaners list all of the physical activities they do on a daily basis. The researchers then quantified all of this exercise and explained how many calories a maid burns in any given day. Turns out, it’s a lot!
• Group B — The researchers told the maids nothing.

After a month (several months? I forget exactly) the researchers checked in on the cleaners. They found that the maids from group A, despite claiming to have made no changes to their work routine, had lost a noticeable amount of weight! This was determined to be statistically significant even after accounting for any other factors, I.e. new diet, new exercise regime, etc.

Merely informing the maids about how many calories they were burning on the job was enough to create the expectation of weight loss. I find that bloody fascinating. Our expectations shape our reality more than any of us might imagine.

Finishing touches

While there are a few claims in this book that I take exception to, by and large I’m giving The Expectation Effect a strong recommendation. The book is short, interesting, and you’re almost guaranteed to learn something that will have a positive impact on your life. I for one have decided that I’m going to be healthy and spry into my nineties. I’m more than happy to let my expectations shape that reality for me.

Every Sunday I publish a recap of all the investing articles and YouTube videos that have really made me think… Here’s 👉 the latest edition.