Universal Basic Suffering
You can’t fix society with more money
The following is a quote from Superintelligence (see my review of the book).
In a moderate takeoff scenario where cheap and capable emulations or other digital minds gradually flood labor markets over a period of years, one could imagine mass protests by laid-off workers pressuring governments to increase unemployment benefits or institute a living wage guarantee to all human citizens, or to levy special taxes or impose minimum wage requirements on employers who use emulation workers.
I believe UBI is coming to the western world this decade. My purpose with this article isn’t to argue whether that’s right or wrong. Rather, I intend to propose how we can launch this program such that its net impact on society is positive. While I’ve never received ongoing government support, such as unemployment insurance, I am nonetheless in an unusually qualified position to speak on the topic of UBI.
As a freelancer of nearly a decade I have extensive experience dealing with an absurd amount of free time, the type that many millions will have to confront if they’re to start receiving universal basic income. While having weeks or months of an empty schedule may seem appealing, without careful management a blank calendar can quickly turn into hell. So without further introduction, let’s take the plunge into the inner circle.
The technology hype cycle
I’m writing based on the assumption that UBI will happen. This is not a done deal, but I believe that the probabilities are high enough that it warrants some thought. What’s not obvious is when it will happen.
Previously I wrote about how ChatGPT would have replaced my first online job, which was menial and boring, and kept me out of the highly lucrative field of freelance writing. I stand by that assessment, however it’s unclear just how quickly the transition to automation will take place.
Right now it feels like we’re somewhere close to the “peak of inflated expectations” phase of the technology hype cycle. ChatGPT can do it all! Lawyers, accountants, programmers, writers and marketers are all doomed. You might as well just quit because the AI is going to take your job anyways.
Well, probably not… As Bing recently found out the hard way, incorporating a new technology takes time and as more people use the tech the vulnerabilities are increasingly transparent. For example, ChatGPT frequently provides wrong information. However, the AI presents these falsities with such compelling conviction that it’s easy to believe what you’re reading.
Annoyingly there is no way to see where ChatGPT gets its information from, so checking its work is impossible. Once these downsides become well-known we’ll fall into the trough of disillusionment. All of the hype will seem to have been unjustified and AI companies will be viewed with derision rather than heaped with praise (the same thing happened to blockchain companies).
However, over time we’ll move to the plateau of productivity, at which point I believe millions of people will be displaced from their jobs in relatively short order. Here’s a heart-warming quote from The Great Rupture.
Ultimately, perhaps only 5 percent of the population might still be making a major contribution, and the real question is how to make the other 95 percent feel happy and satisfied.
My frontline experience
I’ve been freelancing since 2015. Apart from a summer working construction on my father’s house, and my unusual job with the wealthy New Yorker, my normal schedule is 10–20 hours of work per week.
During these periods of employment I still have more free time than most people, however, that’s not even the full story. On multiple occasions I’ve had no work at all which means waking up every morning to nothingness…
That experience has given me a keen understanding of what life will be like for a person living on UBI. The first few months are just dandy. You binge watch Netflix, read books, go to the beach, visit family, whatever. It’s jolly good fun until you wake up on day 173 and realize that with no demands on your time, and no self-esteem from receiving money in exchange for your talents, you feel like shit.
It took me several years to develop the necessary skills and habits to overcome that tendency towards existential depression. I volunteered for this life and even I found it difficult to adapt! Now imagine the millions of people who don’t want their days to be empty, and who would much prefer to stay at their job if only AI hadn’t put them on the dole.
If we do nothing to help people find meaning in their lives we’ll get more depression, anxiety and drug abuse, and less satisfaction and joy. I make this assertion with confidence because all of these nasty things happened to me. Is there a solution?
UBI, let’s do it right
My proposal reeks of government intervention and the state slithering into affairs that ought not concern it, and for that you can criticize me. However, I believe that only the state is capable of carrying out this function and if we opt for zero intervention the results may be far worse. All of the remaining quotes in this article are from the Great Rupture.
Our societies must create a different set of yardsticks to make people feel fulfilled and happy. If it is not money, jobs, or power, what is it that would satisfy people?
My proposal focuses on reinvigorating the forgotten community institutions that once bedrocked our society. To summarize in a sentence, I suggest mandating that before you can qualify for UBI you must participate in a local organization for at least one month.
- The Elk club
- 4-H
- Debate club
- Book club
- Church organization
- Public speaking club
- Car club
- Volunteering at a soup kitchen
- Habitat for Humanity
- Etc…
The state should distribute billions of dollars to bailout the clubs’ balance sheets so that they can start operating and scaling up their organizations. Once there is sufficient capacity there must be a law that before you can qualify for UBI you need to participate in a local organization for at least thirty days.
Just one month, that’s it. After that if you want to go back home and drink yourself to death, hang out with your kids, learn to play the clarinet or eat potato chips until you get congestive heart failure, well that’s your choice. But before you go solo you have to experience what it’s like to spend time with everyone else.
Here’s what I think would happen. A certain percentage of the extroverted population would continue showing up even after the month was over, and the clubs would become self-sustaining staples in the community.
Everyone else would leave after their mandatory month was over, but based on my own experience I believe that many people would return after six months or a year. I’m introverted and even I would have joined a local community organization if I had that opportunity.
As wonderfully described by Abraham Maslow, “a musician must make music, an artist must paint, a poet must write, if he is to be ultimately at peace with himself.” While undoubtedly true, it does not describe today’s real-life experience of the bulk of humanity. Most people work because they must, rather than for a sense of fulfillment; but life without work is also a torture, as much psychological as it is financial.
There are both upsides and downsides to UBI. Being dependent on the government for your daily bread strikes me as the most troubling disadvantage. Will people still protest horrible policy if they’re getting their paycheck from the policy makers? Will the government use their power to threaten the populace into conformity? Given everything we’ve seen in the last few years the answer appears to be yes…
However, it’s not all downside. People will have more free time to pursue their higher ideals. Create art, pursue a passion, take up a new hobby and participate in the community. I can imagine a wonderful flourishing of neighborhoods and a rejuvenation of towns across the country.
The third argument is that basic income guarantee and the accompanied higher taxation would create strong disincentives to work, contribute, and innovate. Again, as with other objections, there is a plethora of controlled experiments that show that the need for social hierarchy and interactions is so deeply ingrained in the human psyche that dropout rates are usually low, as humans are wired to compete (as do other primates) for the “highest branches while munching better and juicier leaves.”
However… If we throw a bunch of money at everyone and demand nothing in return, I believe the results will be disastrous.
I grew up several miles from an Indian reservation, one that was unusually wealthy thanks to a bustling chain of casinos. The profits were shared with everyone on the reservation, and the outcome was far from stunning.
The most visible purchases were new cars, ATVs and unwholesome amounts of liquor. Of course there were many people who put the money to good use, but driving through the reservation it was strikingly obvious that a constant source of income wasn’t lifting the community into prosperity.
When my best friend turned eighteen he “inherited” $25,000 from casino fund, money he had no idea how to use. He bought a lot of beer, refreshed his wardrobe and started dealing pot. A year later my friend was murdered, the circumstances of his death directly related to his richly padded wallet.
While we can never know the alternate paths of history, I believe he would almost certainly be alive today if it weren’t for that cash infusion. I miss him deeply, and my hometown was never the same once he was gone.
This is anecdotal evidence and past performance does not guarantee future returns. And trust me, I feel awkward even mentioning government intervention given how our political leaders seem to blunder from one tragedy to the next. However, I think that we have to do something. If we give money to people with no strings attached, all we’re going to get back is universal basic suffering.
Every Sunday I publish a recap of all the investing articles and YouTube videos that have really made me think… Here’s 👉 the latest edition.
