11PM Matthew Update
Hurricane Matthew is making its presence felt in the Lowcountry tonight, with numerous reports of power outages and downed trees and power lines from the initial bands of rain. While the storm is encountering wind shear and some dry air to aid in its weakening, the surge and heavy rainfall continues to be a major concern for the Charleston area tonight into tomorrow.
Winds have been steadily on the increase this evening; as of this writing, WeatherFlow stations on the coast have been recording solid tropical storm conditions with gusts as high as 60 MPH on the Folly Pier. Conditions will continue to deteriorate as the night goes on.
What to Expect
Tides
Tidal departures in the harbor are now over 3' and continue to grow as the effects of storm surge continue on the area. High tide is after 1am; with heavy rain looking to continue and tides potentially topping out near 9', there could be serious inundation of many parts of downtown Charleston. It is imperative that people in downtown Charleston find safe shelter now!
Note that a 9' tide would set the third highest crest on record at Charleston Harbor. The list of the top 5 is as follows:
- 12.52' on 9/21/1989 (Hugo)
- 10.23 on 8/11/1940
- 8.81' on 1/1/1987
- 8.65' on 10/27/2015
- 8.63' on 5/28/1934
Winds
It is increasingly likely that there will be a period of strong tropical storm-force to hurricane force winds (especially along the coast) starting early Saturday morning in advance of the center. NHC’s forecast has the center coming extremely close to Charleston around 8am. The hurricane force wind field could extend as far inland as Summerville and Goose Creek. Widespread tree damage and power outages appear likely across the area. Be ready to move into an interior room away from windows if hurricane force winds develop.
Note that if the western eyewall impacts the area, gusts near 100 MPH may result.
Rain
Many locations in the SW part of the Tri-County have received over 3" of rain so far, and it is conceivable that another 8–10" of rain could fall. This alone will produce significant flash flooding concerns well inland from the coast, regardless of surge.
Tornadoes
The risk for tornadoes is decreasing as the night goes on but they can’t be completely ruled out until the center passes us by. That being said, the tornado watch which was in effect for much of the day has been allowed to expire.
Be Safe
If you are still in town and have not gone to a shelter, now is the time to shelter in place at home. Do not drive or otherwise venture outside during these conditions. Many counties have curfews in place starting at midnight (Dorchester started at 6PM) through dawn. Please heed them.
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