Time to Prepare
Hurricane Matthew remains a dangerous Category 4 system with winds of 145 MPH. As of this writing, it is bearing down on Haiti with the worst it has to offer. Unfortunately, the westward trend in the modeling continues, and as such the National Hurricane Center has adjusted the track a little further west as of the 5am update.
While the official track keeps the center of the storm offshore, expect effects to be felt a few hundred miles either way. Also, keep in mind that the track error at day 4 is around 170 miles and at day 5 expands to 230 miles, so a direct strike is well within the margin of error at this point. Similarly, hurricane intensity forecasts are notoriously uncertain; average error here in the long term can be plus or minus 20 MPH. In the case of Matthew’s forecast, that could be the difference between a Cat 1 and a Cat 3.
Out of respect to these uncertainties, I recommend that you begin your preparations for a possible major hurricane strike today. The forecast is too close to take chances on. Even if the worst-case scenario doesn’t verify, you’ll be very glad you were prepared. (And if it does, you’ll be very, very glad you prepared.)
We in #chswx do not say this to scare you. We say this out of respect to the uncertainty that is prevalent in these sorts of situations.
This much is certain: We will get through this together.
The next track and intensity update on Matthew is expected from the National Hurricane Center at 11am.
