Watching Florence: Still Many Questions
Florence’s ultimate destination is still very much up for debate, but the East Coast should be preparing
Tropical Storm Florence is continuing its trek westward in the Atlantic, taking a very unusual path toward the U.S. East Coast around a strong ridge of high pressure to the north. It is fighting off a lot of wind shear, but seems to be coming through the worst of it, and is moving into a much more favorable environment for intensification. As a result, it should be a hurricane again by late tonight.
There is still tremendous uncertainty in the forecast beyond the weekend. The track guidance spreads from roughly the GA/FL border into the Mid-Atlantic — quite a distance still. The key is the strength of the ridge of high pressure to the north. We’ll get much more direct sampling of the environment starting today as NOAA research aircraft begin to fly missions around Florence. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters begin missions into Florence on Monday. With this aircraft data, we should hopefully begin to see a consensus solution in the guidance come into focus.
For its part, the Hurricane Center is relying on the ECMWF (European) and UKMET model suites to construct its track forecast and is having decent success with this thus far. Overall, the trend is for other models (particularly the GFS) to gradually shift southward toward these solutions.
Take these models with a grain of salt, though. Once recon flights begin into and around Florence, we’ll have much better data to ingest into the models. Changes could and likely will yet occur. Don’t latch onto a model run or two and panic! Follow National Hurricane Center official forecasts, the Charleston National Weather Service office, and your local emergency management agency to make your decisions.
The only sure thing…
Right now, the only sure bet from impacts on Charleston from Florence will be rough surf, rip currents, and beach erosion starting by early next week. This will make for some really nasty beach conditions.
Everything else is still up for grabs, unfortunately, and nobody can say with any confidence exactly what other effects, if any, we might experience. It’s a crappy answer, and not what anyone wants to hear, but such is the limits of the science right now. Complicating matters is Florence’s unusual path
Respect this uncertainty with proper preparation!
What to do today
Everyone on the East Coast, particularly in the Southeast (including the Lowcountry) should use today to begin some preparations for at least some bad weather later in the week. This includes:
- Staying informed about the forecast. A lot can change still, and it’s important to stay on top of what’s happening. By the same token, though, you don’t have to watch every single model run. Let the meteorologists synthesize that data into a forecast that you can use to make decisions. Never, ever make decisions based on a single run of computer model guidance!
- Sharing vetted, reliable information. There’s a lot of “raw material” out there from which forecasts are generated. Much of it looks scary, and much of it may turn out to be wrong. Stick to sharing official Hurricane Center forecasts on social media and refrain from sharing model guidance unless you know how to interpret it and can provide context.
- Refreshing your hurricane kit. This isn’t a bad idea this time of year anyway, given that we’re at the peak of the season. You can get ahead of what will inevitably be quite a crush and a run on supplies (water, non-perishable foods, etc.) if watches and warnings are issued later in the week. Get advice on what to pack in your kit at ready.gov.
- Clean up loose debris, prune back unwieldy branches, etc. You’ve got a good opportunity to get ahead of any potential wind damage by ensuring debris is cleared — essentially reducing the number of possible projectiles. (And if it doesn’t hit, your HOA will be extra-pleased with you. They may even award you Yard of the Month.)
- Ensure your important documents are in a safe place. Birth certificates, marriage licenses, insurance information should be in a fireproof box if at all possible.
- Take photos of your property. If, God forbid, you need to make an insurance claim, this is good documentation to have.
- Learn your evacuation zone. Know your zone — if officials need you to leave, they’ll call your evacuation zone rather than specific geographical landmarks. Evacuation zones were recently updated for parts of Dorchester County, so be sure you’re up to date on the latest changes. I also am a big fan of the SCEMD mobile app.
Also, I’m a big fan of this life hack:
The bottom line
- There’s still plenty of time to watch Florence.
- There is still a lot of margin of error in the forecast, and the devil is in these details. There is much uncertainty and it requires preparedness.
- Preparedness never hurts! Hopefully this ends up being a whole lot of nothing for SC. If Florence misses us entirely, you’re a leg up for the next one — we’ve still got two and a half months of hurricane season to go, after all.
I don’t expect much to change throughout the day. I suspect things will become clearer beginning Sunday into Monday. I’ll have breaking updates where appropriate on social channels, leaving Medium for longer-form analysis. Follow me: Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.
Follow Jared Smith’s Charleston Weather updates on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook. An updated forecast and current conditions are always available at chswx.com, too. Bookmark it on your home screen! To support independent, hype-averse weather journalism, consider becoming a patron on the Charleston Weather Patreon page.
