Watching Florence: Still Many Questions

Florence’s ultimate destination is still very much up for debate, but the East Coast should be preparing

Jared Smith
Sep 8, 2018 · 4 min read
GOES-East “sandwich” of Tropical Storm Florence at 8am September 8, 2018. Image created with Unidata AWIPS.

Tropical Storm Florence is continuing its trek westward in the Atlantic, taking a very unusual path toward the U.S. East Coast around a strong ridge of high pressure to the north. It is fighting off a lot of wind shear, but seems to be coming through the worst of it, and is moving into a much more favorable environment for intensification. As a result, it should be a hurricane again by late tonight.

Advisory 36 on Tropical Storm Florence, issued at 5am on September 8. Not a fan of that projected path, but a lot can still change. Source: National Hurricane Center

There is still tremendous uncertainty in the forecast beyond the weekend. The track guidance spreads from roughly the GA/FL border into the Mid-Atlantic — quite a distance still. The key is the strength of the ridge of high pressure to the north. We’ll get much more direct sampling of the environment starting today as NOAA research aircraft begin to fly missions around Florence. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters begin missions into Florence on Monday. With this aircraft data, we should hopefully begin to see a consensus solution in the guidance come into focus.

For its part, the Hurricane Center is relying on the ECMWF (European) and UKMET model suites to construct its track forecast and is having decent success with this thus far. Overall, the trend is for other models (particularly the GFS) to gradually shift southward toward these solutions.

Take these models with a grain of salt, though. Once recon flights begin into and around Florence, we’ll have much better data to ingest into the models. Changes could and likely will yet occur. Don’t latch onto a model run or two and panic! Follow National Hurricane Center official forecasts, the Charleston National Weather Service office, and your local emergency management agency to make your decisions.

The only sure thing…

Right now, the only sure bet from impacts on Charleston from Florence will be rough surf, rip currents, and beach erosion starting by early next week. This will make for some really nasty beach conditions.

Everything else is still up for grabs, unfortunately, and nobody can say with any confidence exactly what other effects, if any, we might experience. It’s a crappy answer, and not what anyone wants to hear, but such is the limits of the science right now. Complicating matters is Florence’s unusual path

Respect this uncertainty with proper preparation!

What to do today

Everyone on the East Coast, particularly in the Southeast (including the Lowcountry) should use today to begin some preparations for at least some bad weather later in the week. This includes:

  • Staying informed about the forecast. A lot can change still, and it’s important to stay on top of what’s happening. By the same token, though, you don’t have to watch every single model run. Let the meteorologists synthesize that data into a forecast that you can use to make decisions. Never, ever make decisions based on a single run of computer model guidance!

Also, I’m a big fan of this life hack:

The bottom line

  • There’s still plenty of time to watch Florence.

I don’t expect much to change throughout the day. I suspect things will become clearer beginning Sunday into Monday. I’ll have breaking updates where appropriate on social channels, leaving Medium for longer-form analysis. Follow me: Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.


Follow Jared Smith’s Charleston Weather updates on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook. An updated forecast and current conditions are always available at chswx.com, too. Bookmark it on your home screen! To support independent, hype-averse weather journalism, consider becoming a patron on the Charleston Weather Patreon page.

Charleston Weather

Weather forecasts and discussions for the Charleston, SC Tri-County area (Berkeley, Charleston, and Dorchester).

Jared Smith

Written by

Software engineer and weather geek. Dev team manager @BoomTownROI, principal nerd @chswx.

Charleston Weather

Weather forecasts and discussions for the Charleston, SC Tri-County area (Berkeley, Charleston, and Dorchester).

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