What’s up with Hurricane Matthew?
Alright friends: Let’s talk about Hurricane Matthew. There’s quite a bit to go over, thus my Medium debut as @chswx.
Vitals
Hurricane Matthew is a nasty beast of a storm. It’s packing 140 MPH winds and appears to be strengthening based on latest recon. It’s headed toward Haiti, which will likely be catastrophic for the island nation.
Where’s it going?
The official National Hurricane Center track for Matthew unfortunately shifted west today in response to a westward trend in the forecast models, which started with the ECMWF (Euro model) and eventually was picked up by a vast majority of the modeling suite today. This westward trend appears to be continuing with the early run of this evening’s models; we’ll wait and see what the GFS and ECMWF have to say about Matthew when their runs come in around 11PM and 2AM, but the trend is very concerning.
Why is the forecast track shifting west?
Long story short, high pressure in the northeast will impede the progression of a cold front from the west that will help eventually steer Matthew away from the coast. The sooner the front arrives, the better for us, but indications in today’s models are that it is going to have a tough time getting close enough to make the turn before we get a solid brushing.
With that in mind, though, there is a lot of spread in the computer guidance beyond Wednesday. There are solutions that run the gamut from a Florida landfall all the way to recurvature out to sea (but still a very close pass to the Outer Banks). While it seems unlikely, one cannot totally rule out a landfall close to us, either. That’s why it’s important to stay up to date, because there are still more questions than answers at this point and the forecast will see refinements that may impact you.
What can we expect in Charleston?
First off, it’s still too early to dive into specific impacts. As I mentioned above, there are plenty of questions in the forecast:
- How strong will the high pressure be?
- Will the frontal system get here in time?
- How strong will the storm be when it approaches the Southeast coast?
- How close will Matthew pass to Charleston?
- How far out will the wind field extend?
With that in mind, based on the current forecast track, expect Friday afternoon into Saturday to be increasingly hazardous on the beaches with high surf, rip currents, and erosion. Salt water flooding will be a possibility around times of high tide. Some rain seems like a good bet near the coast, and it’ll at least be breezy at times.
What should I be doing to get ready?
It’s time to review your hurricane plan; the uncertainty of the situation demands it. Make sure that you know your evacuation zone in case the worst-case scenario unfolds. Ensure you have a good hurricane kit with plenty of non-perishable food (bread and milk are perishable, FYI), bottled water, batteries, a weather radio — among other things. Keep close tabs on local media and emergency management for updates on the situation. Stay away from questionable sources of information that are more interested in garnering likes and shares through trumped-up fear than informing the public (unfortunately they are out there).
Finally, don’t panic. Stay calm, cool, and collected, and you’ll get through this — whatever “this” ends up being — just fine.
