Where We Stand

To say that today has been eventful is underselling the point pretty spectacularly. Let’s try to make some sense of it all, shall we?

Evacuation

For starters, the Charleston area is likely to be evacuated for the first time since 1999’s Hurricane Floyd starting tomorrow at 3PM. This is never an easy call for government officials. This is a highly inconvenient, stressful, and expensive process and it is not done lightly. Please take heed of all emergency management instruction and if you are asked to leave, do so. Schools are closed and shelters will be opening as a refuge of last resort. If you can get 100 miles inland, do so. Take tonight to make sure you know your evacuation zone and route so you can evacuate in an orderly fashion if and when the call comes to do so. Governor Haley will be making an announcement at 9am.

Storm Status

8PM advisory for Matthew from the National Hurricane Center.

Matthew remains a strong Category 4 storm with winds of 140 MPH as of the 8PM intermediate advisory. It made landfall earlier this evening on the eastern tip of Cuba and is making its way to the Bahamas. The Hurricane Center expects the storm to weaken slightly as it approaches the Bahamas (and eventually Florida), but it will still be a category 3 storm as it moves through there.

Impacts

Discussing impacts is still somewhat tricky at this point. Many of them are track-dependent; shifts 20 miles east or west could mean significant changes to what we feel from the storm.

The NHC track was largely unchanged at 5PM. It still shows a very close pass of a Category 2 Matthew not terribly far offshore. Thus, we have to consider these potentials:

• Storm surge will be a consideration along with heavy rainfall amounts of over 10" near the coast. Flooding may become a significant factor as a result. I suspect the risk for flooding is driving many of the evacuation decisions; it isn’t so much about the wind as it is the inundation of water. Put another way: If you had problems during last October’s floods, evacuate.

That’s one rainbow I’d rather not have any part of.

• Tropical storm force winds appear likely, with hurricane force gusts not out of the question. Any westward jog in the track would bring the center — and the risk for hurricane-force sustained winds — closer to the area.
• Significant beach erosion, rip currents, and tidal flooding all appear to be in the cards for the end of the week.

Tomorrow

Tomorrow’s weather will be A-OK for preparation and evacuation activities; slight chance of some showers in the afternoon but otherwise rather comfortable temperatures in the upper 70s are expected.

Please be safe. More updates to follow as I am able. The next full National Hurricane Center update is expected around 11PM.