Out The Gate
Ahead of its expected merger with US rival Sprint, Deutsche Telekom subsidiary T-Mobile US rolled out its new 5G network across the continental United States this week. While its initial offering won’t quite pack the full punch the new wireless standard promises to eventually deliver, it marks a turning point in the race to deliver hyper-speed mobile broadband to hundreds of millions of customers. With the early successes of CBS All Access and Disney+ and with new streaming services seemingly coming out of the woodwork, America’s voracious appetite for 4K streaming content is only growing. According to T-Mobile, its 5G network has the potential to reach up to 200 million Americans.
5G, or the 5th Generation of mobile phone technology looks to bring mobile speeds closer to traditional wired broadband speeds by operating on a different range of wireless frequencies than 4G or anything that came before it. This new spectrum (2.4 GHz to 4.2 GHz) allows data to travel much faster than ever before and promises to deliver a type of wireless interconnectivitity that was previously unimaginable.
In 2020, staying connected is the name of the game. Analysts expect 5G technology will play a vital role in how the world incorporates technology into every day life. From allowing more devices to ‘speak’ over the internet [I-O-T], to connecting cutting-edge surveillance appliances for law enforcement, even facilitating how the fleet of driver-less cars automakers are expecting to fill the highways of the young decade will communicate, 5G looks to be more of an ‘infinity gauntlet’ to whichever entity (state or corporate) wins the race to ‘own’ Web 3.0. Can you imagine clouds of unmanned drones connected by 5G conducting scientific analysis in a remote rain forest or dessert? Much has changed from a not-so-distant era where owning the most nuclear weapons alone secured your place as the ‘ruling’ state in an increasingly globalized world.
Today, the fabric of how commerce works — the essence of how we operate as a civilization is transitioning to a digital and inherently ‘always-on’ state. The proof is in the pudding. For much of the last decade the largest companies in the world didn’t build anything you nor I can see. They’re primarily American technology firms. Amazon is currently worth about $350 billion dollars!
All Caught Up!
China, a nation whose existed in one form or another for thousands of years, has seen it’s economy flourish under it’s current leadership as they continue to recover from the rampant poverty that plagued it’s population in the 80s. Now the second economy in the world, its leadership has the foresight to grasp the significance in having a dominant presence in the tech/internet space and has been doing some major catching up to the United States.
The Chinese have the advantage that even the richest American techwiz CEO is salivating over. With a population of 1.4 billion people who are are newly embracing the decadence of the strategic hyper-capitalism its government has embraced (as part of its decades-long strategic economic recovery efforts), China has become most desired market on Earth! Chinese leadership is aware of this. Shrewdly, they’ve imposed a set of roadblocks to slow the Facebooks and Twitters of the world from gaining too much entry. All-the-while it’s grown its own mobile device corporations, wireless telecom firms, and social media platforms.
In 2018 one of the richest companies ever to exist, US technology company Apple Inc., sold about 218 million iPhones. Huawei, a Chinese telecom giant many American’s may still be unfamiliar with, managed to sell 200 million devices. This is a tall order for a company that’s relatively new into the space. Part of what has ‘allowed’ China to catch up so fast are ongoing political disputes and litigation over patents and IP infringement.
As of Dec. 2018 iPhone sales were even banned there, thus furthering the head-start a company like Huawei would have seen to gain market-share. So, while US politicians and publications complained about China taking ‘our’ ideas, they were busy getting their devices caught up in quality and features and placing them into the hands of the masses who are craving them. As you’re reading this, Huawei is the #2 in global smartphone market share behind Korean firm Samsung. Apple is currently #3. Not only have they surpassed their US competitor, they have surpassed them!
“Huawei P20 Pro review: The best phone you’ll never buy” -Chris Velazco, Engadget
Tech…Means War?
The United States is currently mired in what reporters have fondly termed a ‘trade-war’. Months of economic restrictions, accusatory back-and-forths, and threats have led to direct governmental intervention which will have a direct impact on if/how 5G is rolled out globally. The current leg of this war has is that the United States has banned Huawei’s and ZTE (2 Chinese firms) devices at the federal level by the FCC (not a national security agency) due to security implications it says. Why are Chinese phones being banned in the US a big deal?
You see, early in November China had it’s own 5G roll-out. They too beat forecasters ‘to market’ even beating T-Mobile by a few weeks and China’s network is currently closer to the theorized speeds network engineers envisioned than it’s current US counterpart. It seems China 5G spectrum is closer to a ‘Goldilocks’ state than in the US as there are still challenges in balancing speed and range depending on which end of the spectrum cellular carriers use.
Tech enthusiasts went from reporting about how remarkable the Chinese’s vendor’s devices are to stories of them being black-listed for security concerns seemingly overnight! The nuance of the full politics requires further reading and a stronger stomach but, needless to say, China isn’t taking this likely. Legal council and stakeholders are currently finalizing a press a conference as they announce their lawsuit against the FCC. They argue against the merits of the US ban and see it as American tampering to prevent them from becoming the worlds #1 mobile telecom provider they were just poised to become.
No Laughing Matter
The ability to to sell and cater devices to hundreds of millions of Americans seeking to relax to the latest Netflix comedy specials on their phone was the next chess move for the firm based in the 3,000 year old nation. The ban is not only a blow the Huawei, who has been aggressively seeking to expand it’s market into North America, the highly publicized security concerns could be seen as ‘salting the game’ of Chinese firms looking to securing 5G and other tech contracts with other governments/corporations. Formerly 3rd world countries in Asia and South America, emerging economies in Africa, even the prosperous states in Europe will be looking to broker deals with leading 5G vendors to ensure their wireless infrastructure is modernized. Security concerns may be raised as those deals are negotiated potentially which could potentially slow Chinese firms’ abilities to expand foreign territories.
In the meantime, China still has an estimated of 850,million strong connected users (and growing). That’s more than any other nation. That’s more than double the population of the United States! Chinese firms like Huawei and ZTE still have plenty people to sell mobile devices to without expanding west. This also means they can afford to wait out the international political crossfire and still thrive as they wait for courts to settle suits. Nations aren’t exactly buckling to US pressure to exclude Chinese firms as vendors for 5G either.
US tech firms are also facing political struggles domestically as feuding donkies and elephants are increasingly pointing fingers at the companies like Facebook for their role in elections. During what technologists view as a pivotal moment for the internet tech, the global deployment of 5G technology could be hampered by politics but China’s advantages (market, market, market) give them a cushion foreign vendors don’t have. The next Mark Zuckerberg could very well be a Chinese child on 5G right now!
Whose World Is This?
Although invented in the United States the internet has changed the entire world. Not since the birth of Gutenberg’s printing press has a technology transformed so many facets of our existence. Our ability to exchange information at the speed of light irrespective of physical barriers has unlocked an unimaginable potential for creativity and productivity. Up until this point, during what should still be seen the dawn of the digital age, the keys to all this power have been primarily in the hands of American technology and telecom firms.
“Chinese operators are forecasted to have 143 million subscribers at the end of 2020, which will represent an overwhelming 70% of total connections worldwide.” -BusinessWire
Chinese officials grasp the stakes of having its vendors at the forefront of 5G deployment globally (control the internet, control the world?). When American politicians come up for air from all the infighting and mud-slinging during election cycles that more resemble WWE Royal Rumbles than the fairy tale of democracy it’s citizens were sold as children, it’d be wise for them to see the chess plays China’s making in the tech-sphere.
Less important than which carrier is the first to 5G, is which nation will carry mantle of leadership in the technology? The way things are trending, the US policy of trying to slow down Chinese progress in courtrooms via countless lawsuits and claims of IP abuses has not been effective. The nation that was first to the moon, the single richest nation that has ever existed, the undisputed champion of the internet since it’s inception, now faces its most formidable challenger yet. China, the nation which had an 88% poverty rate in the 80s, has the title of #1 in technology in its grasp. It’s strategies, however controversial, are poised to turn them into the worlds #1 economy as well, especially if they can dominate 5G.
In 2025, China is expected to have 1.1 billion 5G subscribers and the United States, 318 million. -BusinessWire
