How the 2020 Election Impacted Congressional Redistricting
The 2020 election saw a shift in state politics to the right. As we posted last month, Republicans made gains in most state legislatures across the U.S. In most cases, they further cemented their advantage. In the crucial redistricting battleground of Pennsylvania, Republicans gained only four seats, but pre-election hopes that the Democrats may have taken control were lost. Other redistricting battlegrounds such as North Carolina and Florida also saw Republican gains.
Overall, Republicans gained total control in only one state legislature — the massive New Hampshire House of Representatives. Though New Hampshire only has two congressional districts, they both have a history of being swing districts. By taking control of the New Hampshire House, the state is now a trifecta for Republicans which means they have total control of the redistricting process. Republicans also flipped the Montana Governor’s seat, giving them a trifecta in that state which is expected to gain a Congressional district. However, Montana has a commission to draw districts, so we expect that there won’t be too much of a Republican advantage there.
Republicans have the advantage
Based on the states widely expected to gain from Congressional reapportionment, it’s hard not to find that Republicans will have a significant advantage going into redistricting, with a few notable exceptions. Republicans will have total control in Texas, Florida, and North Carolina, all states which are expected to gain seats in Congressional reapportionment.
Commissions in Democratic states
In states where Democrats are in control politically, such as California, Virginia, and Colorado, there will be commissions drawing districts, which will neutralize their ability to draw gerrymandered districts. Virginia and Colorado recently passed legislation to create commissions to draw Congressional districts. Though both will have some political influence on the commission and are not truly independent, the political influence is evenly split between parties. Democrats will still have complete control in Illinois, where they were accused of gerrymandering a decade ago. And in New York, despite attempts to create an independent process for redistricting, Democrats will have control. However, both states are expected to lose Congressional representation in reapportionment.
Republicans will control the drawing of 189 districts and Democrats will control only 71 districts. Commissions will be in charge of drawing 118 districts and states with split control will draw 46 districts. Iowa’s nonpartisan redistricting process will draw the state’s four districts.
The Cicero team will be tracking changes to districts as soon as they happen and will make new districts available to our clients. See your current districts and elected officials here and sign up for our newsletter to receive updates.
