This election will determine a decade of U.S. politics
A decade ago, the tea party wave of 2010 ushered in a dramatic shift in U.S. politics at the state level. Nationally, Republicans gained 680 legislative seats, setting a new record. Eleven state legislatures flipped from Democratic to Republican control, giving Republicans new control of twenty state legislatures. Once all the votes were counted and elections certified, Democrats had control of only ten state legislatures. This massive shift in the U.S. electorate came at precisely the right time for Republicans — now in charge of twice as many state governments as Democrats — for they had immense power in redistricting.
Republicans implemented a plan, now known as REDMAP, to increase control of future elections even further with partisan gerrymandering, which was and is arguably legal in many cases. With full control of the process in so many states, including many swing states, they could effectively cement their power in place for the next decade — and so they did, until only recently in many cases.
In most states, redistricting is an act of the state legislature or legislative commission which must then be passed by the Governor. Ten states have independent commissions. Since 2010, several states have enacted reforms to regulate and open the process to the public. In Michigan, voters amended the state constitution in the November 2018 general election to create a citizens redistricting commission. The commission, which has a random selection process, will consist of 13 registered Michigan voters; four Democrats, four Republicans, and five unaffiliated. This is especially significant because Michigan is a swing state and in the last round of redistricting, Republicans were widely accused of gerrymandering the state’s districts in favor of their party.
In Virginia, voters have the chance to amend the state constitution to create a bipartisan citizens redistricting commission. On the ballot this November is Constitutional Amendment #1, which would require the state to create a commission of citizens from each party, and notably also some legislators, to redraw the state’s congressional districts. Currently, the state is governed by the Democratic party, meaning that they won’t have a chance to gerrymander if the constitutional amendment passes.
According to the Princeton Gerrymandering Institute, independent redistricting processes have the opportunity to draw up to 1/4th of all Congressional districts this cycle, which is a marked improvement over the last cycle.
Nevertheless, this cycle, both the Democrats and Republicans have created special interest groups devoted to redistricting. Democrats have created the National Democratic Redistricting Committee led by former Attorney General under President Obama, Eric Holder. Similarly, the Republicans have created the National Republican Redistricting Trust, led by former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, aiming to replicate their success from 2010.
Current Partisan Control of States
As of October 2020, Republicans have complete control of 22 states compared to Democrats 15. However, the built-in advantage of the Republicans isn’t nearly as strong when you look at which electorally important states they have lost power in this decade; Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin, for example. In Pennsylvania, reformers have so far not been successful in changing the Congressional redistricting process. Districts are redrawn by an act of the legislature and passed by the Governor. Widely panned by the citizens, media and finally the State Supreme Court, the gerrymandered plan was invalidated and redrawn in 2018. Despite the lack of structural reform, Pennsylvania now has a divided government which means that the Republican state legislature likely won’t be able to pass a plan in their favor. It’s also possible the Democrats will pick up seats in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives or State Senate and control part of or the entire process.
In Virginia, even if the redistricting constitutional amendment doesn’t pass, Democrats will control redistricting. In Wisconsin, the state legislature passes a redistricting map but the Governor can veto for any reason. Democratic Governor Tony Evers could certainly use that power if the Republican legislature passes a partisan gerrymander.
North Carolina — a state which had Congressional districts redrawn twice and legislative districts redrawn once — is rated by many election watchers as a battleground state for control of the state legislature. Democrats only need to pick up 5 seats in the State Senate and 6 seats in the State House to have complete control over redistricting. Though North Carolina has a Democratic Governor, the Governor has no power over redistricting.
A blue wave in Texas could change the fate of Congress
Texas has been a prize Democrats have been reaching toward for several election cycles. Democrats are only 9 seats short of taking control of the State House and giving them a significant voice in redistricting. Texas is second only to California in the number of Congressional seats — 36 districts total and expected to gain two in reapportionment next year. Texas has also been plagued by accusations of partisan and racial gerrymandering. Giving Democrats a voice here increases the chance of a Democratic majority in the U.S. House for years to come.
Find your district and see if it’s changing
Check out our Cicero Elected Officials and Districts tool, which shows redistricted boundaries where applicable, to see if your district is changing in the upcoming election.
