Which Congressional district will warm the most?

Climate change is literally one of the hottest topics in the world today. It impacts everyone and all facets of human life — public health, livelihoods, geopolitics, infrastructure, and immigration, to name only a few. The vast majority of scientists agree that average global temperatures have been steadily and dangerously rising over the last 150 years. In fact, summer 2021’s temperatures tied 1936 as the warmest year on record.

Summer temperatures are increasing in the U.S.

Since they’ve been collecting data, the trend line is clear — summer temperatures are going up.

Increasingly, people are demanding action from their elected officials to solve the climate crisis. Often in advocacy, it helps to use real-world data to show how a problem will impact a politician’s constituents. We used global climate modeling data to determine the average absolute temperature change by U.S. Congressional district. See the results on the map below:

Climate models predict that the most dramatic warming will occur near the Earth’s north and south poles. That plays on our map, which indicates the most warming by U.S. Congressional districts in the upper Midwest and Northeast.

Top Five Districts with the Highest Mean Temperature Change:

1. MN-8: +5.7 degrees, Rep. Pete Stauber (R)
2. MN-7: +5.7 degrees, Rep. Michelle Fischbach (R)
3. WI-7: +5.6 degrees, Rep. Tom Tiffany (R)
4. MN-6: +5.6 degrees, Rep. Tom Emmer (R)
5. MN-4: +5.6 degrees, Rep. Betty McCollum (D)

While the intensest warming will occur in northern districts currently represented by Republicans, it’s essential to remember that the climate doesn’t care about political parties and districts. By its nature, the global climate crisis threatens everyone in the U.S. and beyond. For instance, rising sea levels are devastating coastal areas and fisheries like in Louisiana; harsher hurricane seasons are burdening taxpayers with steeper recovery costs in areas like Florida and wildfires have become year-round problems that pollute the air not only in the pacific west where they mostly occur, like Oregon but also across the country.

Using Cicero’s database of elected officials and address-to-district matching tools, you can effectively advocate for your representatives — whether in Congress, the state legislature, or even city council — to take action on climate change. Our partner, Citizens’ Climate Lobby, uses Cicero to do just that:

“Our supporters are always eager to contact their members of Congress to urge them to take action on climate change, especially as we all face worsening climate impacts. When it’s easy to get in touch with our elected officials, people are more likely to make their voices heard on this important issue.” — Flannery Winchester, Citizens’ Climate Lobby

Using Cicero’s database of elected officials and address-to-district matching tools, your organization can take its advocacy work to the next level, whether your targets are in Congress, state legislatures, or city councils.

For even more targeted climate advocacy, check out Azavea’s recent project that combines climate change data from Probable Futures with Cicero data. See the 50 hottest places in the U.S. and contact your elected officials to find out how they are working to address temperature increases in counties across the nation.