Bitcoin in 2018 — Collective Intelligence vision
In 2017, the crypto market capitalisation rose from $17 billion to $559 billion, and Bitcoin — the first decentralised digital currency — saw a spectacular increase of 1,410%, increasing in value from $963.66 to $20,089 according to CoinMarketCap.
Moving into 2018, we asked our forecasters on the Cindicator application “What will the max price of BTC be in 2018?” to see whether this trend would continue.
The simple average of all the predictions we received was $55,691. However, a number of the forecasters’ predictions (5.4%) were shown to be incorrect just five minutes into 2018 as they predicted that the max price would remain below $14,112.20 (the open price on Monday, 1 January according to CoinMarketCap). A further 6.6% of forecasters were eliminated when the price hit $17,579.60. So we now have less than 90% of forecasters left fighting for the 1 BTC prize for this question.
We also investigated a few other possibilities, using variations on the methodology to ascertain differently weighted predictions. Firstly, we discarded any predictions which were lower than the value of Bitcoin on 1 January 2018, as they had now been shown to be incorrect. The average of our forecasters’ predictions, disregarding those which were now out of the running, was somewhat higher, at $58,430.
In order to make our data set more consistent, we carried out a procedure of data harmonization and cleansing, and removed all the responses which were demonstrably inaccurate and below $14,112.20, as well as maximum extremum predictions. In this way we arrived at a maximum price for Bitcoin in 2018 of $47,230.
One more method we carried out was looking at the predictions of the top 30 crypto forecasters on the Cindicator app. The superforecasters had a different view than the forecasting community as a whole in their estimations of the currency’s max value. The average superforecaster’s prediction will be sent to our token holders at the Trader and Expert level (you can find all the details on how to get this indicator here)
Other predictions around the web vary greatly. In their annual ‘outrageous predictions’, Saxo Bank forecast that the cryptocurrency would hit $60,000 in 2018. By comparison, Saxo Bank’s outrageous prediction for 2017 was a high of $2,100. The bank nevertheless cautioned that the asset would crash hard in 2018 after reaching its peak, falling to a value of $1,000.
According to CNBC, cryptocurrency entrepreneur and co-founder of TenX Julian Hosp says Bitcoin could hit $60,000 in 2018, but another crash — this time down to the $5,000 mark — is on its way.
There is a consensus among experts that, a year from now, Bitcoin could more than triple its record value. “Bitcoin can reach $60,000 by [December] 2018,” Marvin Dumont, a senior editor at Bitcoin.com, told Futurism.
Medicalchain co-founder and COO Mohammed Tayeb shared a similar prediction: “Bitcoin could reach $50,000 by this time next year, if not more,” he told Futurism. “I think all of us are less and less surprised by the headlines that are coming out nearly monthly about the breakthrough Bitcoin is making and it should come as no surprise when it does reach $50,000.”
According to CryptoCoinsNews (ccn.com), an unknown trader or group of traders has placed a million-dollar bet that the price of Bitcoin will reach $50,000 by the end of 2018.
Dave Chapman, managing director of cryptocurrency trading firm Octagon Strategy, who also forecasted Bitcoin’s five-digit value early last year, is now predicting that the value of Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of 2018.
On the pessimistic side, there are predictions of bitcoin hitting $2,000 because of potential global regulatory issues, slow transaction times and high fees.
This gloomy outlook appears to be shared by 15.7% of our forecasters, who do not believe it will surpass the 2017 all time high. The full distribution of the Cindicator forecasters’ predictions shows that 59% believe the max price will fall within the $20,000–60,000 range:
CND token holders on the Trader and Expert plans will receive indicator processed by one of the most accurate machine learning models of the Cindicator platform. On top of that, both plans will receive a second indicator, which gathers the results of our top-30 crypto forecasters on the Cindicator app. To access Trader or Expert plans you should hold at least 200,000 and 700,000 CND tokens correspondingly. Follow this link to find out more info on Cindicator Bot!