Collective Crypto Mood Swings Report
Today we want to reveal the findings from the Collective Crypto Mood Swings Report — the research report that summarises the insights of 111,000 financial analysts on our platform. Over a nine-month period starting in September 2017 through May 2018, Cindicator analysts answered questions about the asset prices of Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), and various altcoins (including EOS, BCH, TRX, ETC, DASH, ZEC, XVG, HSR, QTUM, ZIL, XMR, BNB, IOT and ICX). Based on the analysts’ predictions we conducted a research project which aimed at analysing how the crypto crowd is adjusting to movements within the crypto market.
Key objectives of the research
We analysed analysts’ opinions about Bitcoin and Ethereum prices during the following period, as well as the correlation between price movements and the crowd’s opinions and the overall crowd mood during and after Consensus 2018, which took place on 14–16 May. The report shows the analysis of the crowd moods month by month during this nine-month period.
Here are the main findings from the report:
Investors need two months to adjust to new trends in crypto markets:
- In January and February the collective mood was bullish, forecasting growth despite the downward trend;
- The mood adjusted only in March, after the overall market cap declined from the January high of $835 bn to below $300 bn in February;
- This fits with other asset classes: it takes 60–100 days to adapt to a new long-term trend.
The public view on ETH is strongly polarised:
- The collective mood was very divided in March, when ETH dropped by more than 50% in USD terms;
- It appears that higher volatility leads to greater mood swings.
The public mood after Consensus 2018 became slightly more pessimistic. It appears that expectations of a post-Consensus upswing were not met. The market was waiting for strong positive news, yet there was none. This was already apparent during the event, when opinions were more divided.
“Our collective forecasting platform with over 110,000 analysts from around the world gives a unique view into the mind of the crowd. Since September, the number of data points we generate every month has increased by over 30 times. While this data is useful on its own, the true value is in applying AI to enhance collective wisdom, leading to the creation of predictive analytics.” — commented Cindicator co-founder and CEO Mike Brusov.
Cindicator’s Data Scientist Alexander Osipenko said: “Our data is truly unique because it shows the crowd’s expectations. While we see that many are heavily biased, we also keep the track record for every analyst and apply different machine learning models to predict the probability of each forecast being correct. We now have over 30 different ML models and a fully functioning neural network, the accuracy of which continues to increase with additional data.”
The resulting answers frame the changes in the collective moods of crypto investors before, during and after the record peaks in prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum. You can find the full report here.
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