Superforecaster Martin Lawrence joins Cindicator

Cindicator now has over 110,000 analysts on the forecasting platform, but if you’ve been with us long enough, you’ve no doubt seen some remarkable consistency in the top ratings. Martin Lawrence is one of these superforecasters who has stayed in the top analyst tier for many months. He was rated #1 in May, March, and February. We’re excited to announce that he has now joined Cindicator’s internal analyst team!

We caught up with him to ask him some questions about how he manages to achieve such outstanding results.

What were you up to before Cindicator?

Martin Lawrence: Before Cindicator I was already analysing and trading on crypto markets, and investing in different projects. I’ve been doing this since February 2014.

When did you join the community and what brought you to Cindicator?

ML: I heard about Cindicator from Cyber Fund. I was drawn in by the idea itself, by the presence of an MVP, and working apps for iOS and Android. As an analyst, I was interested in several things:

• Market analysis and forecasting without any financial risks — I could test my strengths and weaknesses, learn about new projects and tokens;
• The competition — it was very interesting to observe the changes in the ratings, both for myself and for others;
• And of course the reward system for correct analysis.

Why did you decide to join the Cindicator team?

ML: I decided to join Cindicator to better understand the cryptocurrency industry as a whole. The insider view from within the project helps me to understand and notice things that many don’t consider. I also wanted to further improve my skills and continue to grow as an analyst and trader, and to deepen my understanding of the market. And of course I wanted to help Cindicator grow!

How do you manage to consistently achieve such high results?

ML: Unfortunately, my results are not always that high! I think that some of these ‘faults’ happen due to my own view of the market. About 50–60% of my analytical strategy is based on TA (technical analysis) for determining further market trends, and the rest is based on chart patterns imprinted in my mind. If you look at charts for 4.5 years in a row, trading, investing, and making conclusions to learn from your mistakes, acknowledging your weaknesses and developing skills to build on your strengths, then you can learn to understand the market in terms of overall patterns and TA. That’s what I believe.

How did you find time for forecasting? Is it different now that you’ve joined the team?

ML: Both before and now, actually answering questions takes a minimal amount of time: a standard binary question takes maybe 20–30 seconds max. That’s mainly because I already spend most of my time watching the market even without Cindicator’s questions. So answers are just conclusions based on my observations.

What could you recommend to someone who wants to improve their analytical skills?

ML: It’s all very individual, everybody is different. I think the best advice is to not listen to anyone. Make your own mistakes based on your decisions, learn from them, analyse them and improve. Also read books on technical analysis (I can recommend: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, A Contemporary Guide to the Ancient Investment Techniques of the Far East by Steve Nison, Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John J Murphy, and Technical Analysis by Jack Schwager), but only to understand widely recognised patterns for currency moves — in the end, everybody has their own way of analysing the market.

Thank you, Martin!

From the community to the team

Martin isn’t the first member of our analyst community to join the team and we’re confident that he will not be the last one. Given that accurate forecasts are extremely valuable to Hybrid Intelligence, we’ve updated the prize fund distribution to ensure that all analysts are motivated to make forecasts. So now Martin and any other analysts who join the team will not be considered for the main prize funds. They’ll still be in the ratings, but instead they’ll receive rewards that are not linked to the main motivational pool.

In addition to our analysts, Cindicator token holders are another valuable source of talent. Vyom Mahadevia, one of our early supporters, has joined the Cindicator team after the first trading contest where he showed phenomenal results.

Here is how Vyom commented on his journey:

I first came across Cindicator during the token sale phase, I was fascinated by the concept and the fact that they had tested out the theory (wisdom of the crowd) for six months on the Moscow Stock Exchange made it even more interesting for me.

I saw that the team was rock star in its outlook and so was the advisory panel. I liked the way that they conducted the token sale and how professional they were. I really admired their decision not to list on the Binance exchange before launching their products. This was a big step at the time, going against the norm in the industry, especially when the entire crypto industry suffers from a short attention span and some of the token holders were getting impatient since they just wanted to flip their tokens. This just grew my confidence in the team and the project even more for the long term. It showed me that the team was serious and had the vision to focus on the long-term success of the company.

More ways to contribute

We recognise and deeply appreciate the immense value our community brings to Cindicator. To give the most active members more opportunities to contribute and grow professionally, we’ve recently launched Cindicator Avantgarde, our ambassador programme. It’s a great chance to dive in and collaborate more closely with the team while gaining valuable experience.

And of course we’re always keen to welcome the best talent to our team. Have a look at our careers section — we’re growing very fast. Being part of the community and knowing what Cindicator is about is a big advantage (in fact, even our very own Yana started as a community helper, but that’s a whole other story).

If you have any questions, let us know in the comments!