2016 Review & 2017 Predictions

10–4–10: VR & AR (originally posted as a series of Tweets). 10 point review and predictions looking at the year gone and ahead for VR & AR technologies.

2016 Review

1. Much emphasis on gaming as expected but many examples of positive use of the technology outside of this space (+)
2. X4 consumer headsets released to public (Rift, Vive, Daydream, PSVR) — lower than analyst predicted units sold but that’s no bad thing (+)
3. X5 main VR storefronts — only 2 have comfort ratings (Oculus & Daydream). All need work on usability, discoverability & features (-)
4. All major VR systems offer degrees of “full VR” with degrees of motion tracked user input — Oculus Touch & Vive winning capability set (+)
5. Full gaming titles now exist beyond tech demos but users are still grazing content, combined with low units = sparse multiplayer (+/-)
6. Developers realising or confirming that making money from VR games is currently hard but some have broken $1m sales apparently (+/-)
7. VR platform-holders willing to invest serious money into supporting the ecosystem, gaming & non-gaming with Oculus & Viveport leading (+)
8. Future visions shown with early prototypes of VR HMDs that have inside-out tracking, mobile tracked input, eye-tracking and wireless (+)
9. (Dev kits started shipping for Hololens and Meta 2.0; no sign of Magic Leap or CastAR yet. A way off commercial readiness though (+/-)
10. Social VR spaces gained popularity but highlighted number issues to be addressed w/ greater immersion & presence around harassment (+/-)

2017 Predictions

1. AR will become more relevant for commercial enterprise with viable hardware for non-gaming use in the workplace (+)
2. Number of wireless “full VR” stop-gap supporting add-ons will be available, freeing user of the tether but add new set of challenges (+/-)
3. VR Arcades will continue to rise in popularity whilst cost remains a barrier to entry for many but with a 5-yr lifespan as prices fall (+)
4. Microsoft will release number of manufacture-partner headsets at a lower cost but at increase of market fragmentation for developers (+/-)
5. Apple won’t announce an AR/VR device, not until it’s ready for release within a month of the Keynote. Too many almost-theres currently (-)
6. Mobile VR motion tracked user input will be viable with a variety of solutions available, bridging the tethered/untethered gap (+)
7. New GFX cards from NVidia / AMD will offer quality of VR firmly placing PSVR in the mid-range zone. Console gamers won’t care though (+/-)
8. Social VR spaces will continue to be affected by harassment of users but improvements to avatars & facial representation will help reduce (+/-)
9. The first $100m dev cost VR game will be announced for release in 2019, firmly bringing the industry inline with AAA dev costs/times (+)
10. The PC VR community will continue fight over Rift / Vive superiority as it grows, despite marginal differences. Fanbois gonna fanboi (-)

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