It’s All Just More Horseshit
History Is Consistent — Believing In The Newest Popular Crisis Tends To Leave People Looking Stupid
Headlines have an interesting habit of recording bad predictions. No one is ever held accountable, but at least we have an historic record of recorded folly and stupidity.
Take The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894 — yes, that was a real thing. At the close of the 19th century — city planners, concerned citizens, and scientists alike were up to their eye balls in horse manure. Popular myth claims this is where the brownstone townhouse got its name… it didn’t, there are other chemical reasons for that sandstone turning brown.
Regardless, it turned out to be a pretty shitty prediction. Within a decade and a half, automobiles out numbered horses in major cities across the western world. Crisis averted. And oddly, this never really figured into Henry Fords plans. He was busy dealing with misguided bankers.
“The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a novelty — a fad,” — President of Michigan Savings Bank 1903
History is pretty clear. The false crisis fills headlines on a daily basis. When it is proven wrong, it goes into hibernation and is quickly replaced by the next. On the rare occasion a real crisis emerges — almost no one saw it coming. Or at least, no one read it in the headlines. If trouble is popularly accepted — it probably isn’t real. History and technology just have too good of a time making people look stupid.
Endless Regression
While the growth of China’s economy may not be a crisis in most parts, to many minds in the US, it was. Of course, this crisis proved unfounded… Well actually, it is just another five years away. It just keeps being endlessly reset. Literally every years since… it was Japan. Huh? That’s right from 1985–1995, this “crisis” was all about Japan. It seems economists, like city planners, really enjoy extending lines. You know, because endless regression is a sure thing. Just look at the housing crisis…
Of course, no one saw that coming… until it already had. Prior to 2006, popular wisdom declared housing prices would never fall. Gee, that doesn’t sound like a crisis… until it was. Then popular sentiment declared they would never rise again! Ah, that’s better! Only they did. These days — headlines are bandying about “peak housing”. I wonder how long until that looks stupid.
We Really Love Our Peaks
Remember Peak Oil? It isn’t so popular anymore, but it has been. It started in 1950 and got recycled repeatedly until just a few years ago. By various accounts, we ran out of oil decades ago. Well, until we didn’t.
Remember Peak Coal? In 1992, I learned in college that coal reserves would be gone by 2030. That wasn’t the peak — that was the end. In 2010, the chairman of the Geoscience’s Department at the University of Texas declared it would occur in 2011… he was wrong. I wonder if he still has his job?
It is amazing how so often the “brightest and best informed” look like … well, they fell in 9 feet of manure. Remember this gem? In 1899, Charles Duell, commissioner of the US Patent Office announced -
“Everything that can be invented, has been invented”
Perhaps we should forgive him. I heard he fell in a pile of manure on his way to the office that day! (that’s a joke, no need to Google it). It is just another premature peak. Was it a crisis? Maybe. But we can easily go there too!
Of course, the CDC and medical world don’t do crisis! They have pandemics. The ones they didn’t see until they actually were and the ones announced yearly that never seem to materialize. Bird Flu, Ebola, SARS, and Zika to name a recent few.
One that did? The Spanish Flu — though much like the inquisition “no one expected” it. It is actually named for the neutral country where it could finally be proven it wasn’t some sort of disease stemming from the Great War. Maybe if they just stopped fighting long enough, they would have realized…
That It’s All Just A Little Bit Of History Repeating
City planners, scientists, commissioners, doctors, bankers, and even propeller heads get these things wrong constantly. Well, not the band Propellerheads — they tried to make this phenomenon more popular.
And I’ve seen it before
And I’ll see it again
Yes I’ve seen it before
Just little bits of history repeating
Of course, they need to thank Shirley Bassey. In 2011, perhaps fearing peak coal, they used the wonders of technology to bring her prophetic song back to us on Youtube. The song was first written in 1997, but history was clear that means little.
As for the song, those lyrics couldn’t tell this story any better. The only thing missing is a horse and nine feet of manure! Why nine by the way? Was ten too round of a number?
Circling Back
It is what we like to do at Circa Navigate. History demands it. And history is pretty emphatic that almost any popular crisis is a bunch of horse shit — unless the headline says something like “look what happened while we were all worried about another crisis”. Otherwise, what we fear today will most likely never happen or be overcome by technology no one really intended to fix the issue.
So don’t worry! But maybe these guys should. Without technology, maybe this headline will shape up to be a real crisis! Or maybe it is just one more media attempt to get readers. Only history will tell.
Thanks for reading!
Oh, and horseshit isn’t always bad. Read more here.
