Dubbed the most water-stressed region in the world, how will the ME respond to climate change?
Will countries finally cooperate to improve their environmental performance and adaptive capability?
While climate change is becoming increasingly recognized as a global threat, it is important to note that its regional consequences diverge; meaning that some regions in the world will suffer more than others under its effects. Even though the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region contributes to less than 5% of global greenhouse gas emissions, a figure that is significantly lower than that of more developed regions, it has been declared one of the world’s climate change hot spots. The region, already classified as hot, dry and water-scarce, has been experiencing a consistent surge in temperature since 1970. Today, it is characterized by extreme heat, drought and aridity conditions. As a result, the MENA region may see a increases in temperature larger than the global mean temperature increase of 2º C, that is expected during the 21st century. It is thus projected that the MENA region will be subjected to unusual heat extremes throughout the century. At the heart of this is the issue of water scarcity. Water availability is predicted to decrease in most parts of the region suggesting that climate change will further contribute to existing water stress in a region that is water-scarce, to begin with. This is set to affect about of land area throughout the century thus, amplifying the process of desertification that was already underway. It is also worth mentioning that the population of MENA is expected to double by 2070 to a total of over 800 million people. Together these factors threaten many important sectors in MENA, most notably, the agricultural sector which is heavily relied on for employment and national income in many countries in the region. A blow to the agricultural sector could prove devastating to the food and water security of many populations, particularly affecting rural livelihoods. Therefore, climate change and subsequent global warming may act as a threat multiplier in MENA as it adds pressure on pre-existing strains on resources. However, these threats do not affect the region homogenously as the socio-economic and political situation in countries is quite diverse which means that their vulnerability and adaptive capability to climate change also greatly vary. The distinction can be drawn between the Arab Gulf states and the rest of the MENA countries. For example, in 2014, the average annual per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Yemen amounted to $1,000 (before the Yemeni Civil War began, so, the figure might be even lower now) while that of the Arab Gulf states amounted to $20,000. So, there is a clear difference in the ability of poorer and richer MENA countries to respond to the impacts of climate change. This essay will argue that climate change presents a potential opportunity for cooperation between MENA countries that could adjust environmental performance thus, altering the grim path that the region is on as a result of its effects. It will demonstrate this by focusing on regional cooperation in the Middle East particularly emphasizing the necessity that richer countries collaborate with poorer countries.
Before going into the ways by which Middle Eastern countries can cooperate to mitigate the effects of climate change, it is necessary to acknowledge the urgency of the matter by demonstrating just how alarming the situation is. Research shows that global warming in the Middle East is occurring at a rate that is 1 and a half times faster than that of the global average. In recent decades, the temperature has increased by 3–4% each decade and has resulted in a warmer and drier Middle East. The maximum average temperature observed so far was 43º C. It is expected to reach 46º C by mid-century and peak at 50º C by the turn of the century[1]. Since the 1970s, the number of warm days and nights has almost doubled as heat extremes have been both more recurrent[2] and more intense in the last few decades. This has led to an overall regional summer warming that is far above the global mean average. A best-case scenario occurring at a 2º C increase in temperature across the region will cause unusual heat extremes during 30% of summer months (June, July, and August). So, approximately 1 month will experience unusual heat. A worst-case scenario of a 4º C rise in temperature, however, will cause 65% of summer months to be unusually hot. This rapidly warming climate could lead to sustained pressure on the region’s already high levels of water stress subsequently resulting in a rise in food and water demand which is exacerbated by a substantially increasing population[3].
That is because the MENA region is the most water-stressed in the world. While it is home to 7% of the world’s population, its share of the world’s renewable freshwater resources totals a mere 1.5%. The total annual renewable water supply in the region is equal to 623.8 billion . At face value, this number does not reflect the reality facing the MENA region. According to this number and the current MENA population, the per capita supply of each individual in the region should be 1, 274 . However, actual figures show that the per capita annual water availability in Egypt is 794 and falls to as low as 7 in Kuwait. The World Bank determined that 1, 700 is the necessary per capita water availability. This shows that not only does water availability clearly differs across Middle Eastern countries, but also that actual numbers are far from those the World Bank deems necessary. Thus, many countries rely on underground water and aquifers as sources of freshwater. Nevertheless, it has been the case that the aquifers tend to be overused and permanently damaged. MENA countries are also heavily reliant on rainfall[4]. 70% of the region’s agricultural sector, which is the 2nd largest employer in various Arab countries, is rain-fed[5]. It is estimated that precipitation will fall by around 20% during the 21st century while groundwater is also in short supply. This means that droughts will become more frequent[6]. It is reported that the number of drought days will increase by more than 50% throughout the century[7] even further contributing to the depletion of groundwater levels[8]. Consequently, harvests will be ruined as they are expected to decrease by approximately 30% at a 1.5–2º C increase in temperature[9]. Plant growth will be adversely affected as well. This will cause a significant reduction in natural plant coverage which will limit the soil’s moisture storage capacity thus, accelerating desertification[10]. The MENA region has experienced a period of prolonged drought before from 2006 to 2009 during which precipitation fell to lower-than-usual levels. The effects were felt throughout the region as 80% of rain-fed cultivated land was abandoned and a huge quantity of livestock was lost due to the severe drying of many landscapes. So, it is likely that the effects of desertification will be emphasized by the larger ascent in temperature, not to mention the expected surge in population. The United Nations (UN) has even predicted that by 2040, the historically significant Tigris and Euphrates rivers will be completely dried up[11]. Although climate change is not the single driver of desertification[12], it has come to be a much more serious threat to droughts compared to human activity[13]. Hence, the region is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change on precipitation patterns as it affects its food and water needs.
It is becoming increasingly apparent that climate change endangers human security in the MENA region as it affects accessibility to water and arable land. The poorest populations are going to be hit the hardest as they already suffer from food and water shortages[14]. They are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change compared to others in the region that have the financial capability to develop adaptation measures. However, efforts at the national level may prove insufficient due to the interdependence of economic development in the region as climate-related risks could lead to economic, political and social instability spillover from one country to the other[15]. Yet, the absence of political will for regional cooperation still seems preponderant in the Middle East. To date, there have been countless regional summits held and agreements signed but the political will to cooperate to implement climate action programs has been largely absent[16]. This is evident in the Levant region that has failed to instigate intergovernmental cooperation on climate change as well as other issues. Yet other sub-regional attempts at cooperation have been more successful. This is true of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The homogeneity of climatic threats across the gulf has led to some level of cooperation among them. They have been able to develop cohesive environmental information sharing and are progressively closely working together on tackling climate change. If Gulf countries recognize that their long-term prosperity depends on the fate of the other Middle Eastern countries, they can lead the region to follow in their footsteps[17]. This is not without being oblivious to the many political divides that exist across the Middle East. However, an opportunity to cooperate on the mitigation and adaptation to climate change is not one that should be wasted because of tensions. It is far too important. Building climate resilience should be a priority[18].
Achieving that should not require any kind of radical change to the politics or policy-making processes of Middle Eastern countries. This is because a substantial number of regional plans, reports, strategies, and protocols have already been developed and signed. The problem lies in the fact that they have not been followed upon. An example of an initiative that is involved in regional environmental policy-making is the Council of Arab Ministers Responsible for the Environment (CAMRE). It was founded by the Arab League in 1986 and has been holding regular meetings ever since. It engages in policy research, information-sharing, and bridge-building among Arab countries. It also allows the involvement of international organizations that can attend meetings alongside the ministers. Nevertheless, limited progress is usually made once the ministers return to their countries. This is a scenario that is constantly repeated when it comes to the development of environmental policy in the Middle East. However, there are two ways by which regional cooperation can be boosted. First, citizen demand. Awareness among the public in the region is becoming increasingly visible not only through small changes that people make to their habits but also through the emergence of many civil society organizations across countries. As a result, the public is more aware of the socioeconomic implications that climate change will have on their livelihoods. In addition, the Arab uprisings that began in 2011 have helped different populations in the region realize that they share relatively similar environmental challenges. This public consciousness is essential to the facilitation of regional cooperation as advocacy pressures the government to look to the advantages of cooperation[19]. An example of this would be for governments to realize that they can make use of the comparative advantage that exists across the region. Securing water and food could be reached via proper management of resource trade-offs across different sectors[20]. The involvement of civil society to nudge governments in the right direction could be seen as a politically neutral issue and thus, will not cause the government to crack down on any organizations. Moreover, it could open the door for future cooperation between civil society organizations and governments perhaps on more issues. Second, external actor involvement could also help boost political will. Actors such as the European Union (EU) are already playing a role in the region. For instance, the EU supports the Center for Environment and Development for the Arab Region and Europe (CEDARE) which is an Egyptian-led intergovernmental organization that focuses on resource management and sustainability. The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) are also involved in several projects across the Middle East. However, the absence of regional environmental cooperation has led international organizations to mainly focus on national projects rather than regional ones[21].
Therefore, it is quite obvious that regional environmental cooperation is contingent upon the political will of individual countries. The sooner governments realize that the fates of their economies are tied, the better chance the Middle East has to adapt to climate change and curb its effects on their populations. Civil society and international actors are essential to the boosting of that will. Organizations operating nationally could show that countries can provide mutual benefits to each other as each country stands to learn something from the other. They can initiate this by first learning and applying the best practices that each country implements. After some bilateral progress is made there, a move towards more integrated regional cooperation is the logical next step. This is where international actors are indispensable. They can signal the need to shift from national to regional focus to show the importance of prioritizing regional processes. So, support for regional cooperation comes from the national level (civil society) and the international level (international bilateral and multilateral actors). Both political and financial support could facilitate this. Furthermore, an integrated approach to environmental policy has implications for regional economic policies. It would steer the region towards the path of sustainable economic planning which addresses long-term climate risks as well. If this is achieved, the Middle East will improve its immediate and long-term environmental performance thus, reducing the likelihood of a pessimistic scenario that is characterized by economic, political and social instability from occurring[22].
Bibliography
Abouelnaga, Mahmoud. “Why the MENA Region Needs to Better Prepare for Climate Change.” Atlantic Council, 19 Aug. 2019, www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/why-the-mena-region-needs-to-better-prepare-for-climate-change/.
Alboghdady, Mohamed, and Salah E. El-Hendawy. (PDF) Economic Impacts of Climate Change and Variability … Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Nov. 2015, www.researchgate.net/publication/301680605_Economic_impacts_of_climate_change_and_variability_on_agricultural_production_in_the_Middle_East_and_North_Africa_region.
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Lelieveld, J., et al. “Strongly Increasing Heat Extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st Century.” SpringerLink, Springer Netherlands, 23 Apr. 2016, link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584–016–1665–6.
Shafi, Neeshad. “Can Fighting Climate Change Bring the Arab World Closer Together?” World Economic Forum, 1 Apr. 2019, www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/04/to-fight-climate-change-the-arab-world-needs-to-come-together/.
Stang, Gerald. Climate Challenges in the Middle East Rethinking Environmental Cooperation. The Middle East Institute, 2016, www.mei.edu/publications/climate-challenges-middle-east-rethinking-environmental-cooperation.
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[1] Karami, Nasser. “The Modality of Climate Change in the Middle East: Drought or Drying up?” Brill, Brill, 14 June 2019, brill.com/view/journals/tjis/2/1/article-p118_118.xml?language=en.
[2] Lelieveld, J., et al. “Strongly Increasing Heat Extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st Century.” SpringerLink, Springer Netherlands, 23 Apr. 2016, link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584–016–1665–6.
[3] Waha, K., Krummenauer, L., Adams, S. et al. Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups. Reg Environ Change 17, 1623–1638 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1144-2.
[4] Joffé George. “The Impending Water Crisis in the MENA Region.” Taylor & Francis, He International Spectator, 14 Oct. 2016, www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03932729.2016.1198069.
[5] Waha, K., Krummenauer, L., Adams, S. et al. Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups. Reg Environ Change 17, 1623–1638 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1144-2.
[6] Joffé George. “The Impending Water Crisis in the MENA Region.” Taylor & Francis, He International Spectator, 14 Oct. 2016, www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03932729.2016.1198069.
[7] Waha, K., Krummenauer, L., Adams, S. et al. Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups. Reg Environ Change 17, 1623–1638 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1144-2.
[8] Joffé George. “The Impending Water Crisis in the MENA Region.” Taylor & Francis, He International Spectator, 14 Oct. 2016, www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03932729.2016.1198069.
[9] Waha, K., Krummenauer, L., Adams, S. et al. Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups. Reg Environ Change 17, 1623–1638 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1144-2.
[10] Joffé George. “The Impending Water Crisis in the MENA Region.” Taylor & Francis, He International Spectator, 14 Oct. 2016, www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03932729.2016.1198069.
[11] Karami, Nasser. “The Modality of Climate Change in the Middle East: Drought or Drying up?” Brill, Brill, 14 June 2019, brill.com/view/journals/tjis/2/1/article-p118_118.xml?language=en.
[12] Waha, K., Krummenauer, L., Adams, S. et al. Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups. Reg Environ Change 17, 1623–1638 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1144-2.
[13] Karami, Nasser. “The Modality of Climate Change in the Middle East: Drought or Drying up?” Brill, Brill, 14 June 2019, brill.com/view/journals/tjis/2/1/article-p118_118.xml?language=en.
[14] Alboghdady, Mohamed, and Salah E. El-Hendawy. (PDF) Economic Impacts of Climate Change and Variability … Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Nov. 2015, www.researchgate.net/publication/301680605_Economic_impacts_of_climate_change_and_variability_on_agricultural_production_in_the_Middle_East_and_North_Africa_region.
[15] Abouelnaga, Mahmoud. “Why the MENA Region Needs to Better Prepare for Climate Change.” Atlantic Council, 19 Aug. 2019, www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/why-the-mena-region-needs-to-better-prepare-for-climate-change/.
[16] Shafi, Neeshad. “Can Fighting Climate Change Bring the Arab World Closer Together?” World Economic Forum, 1 Apr. 2019, www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/04/to-fight-climate-change-the-arab-world-needs-to-come-together/.
[17] Stang, Gerald. Climate Challenges in the Middle East Rethinking Environmental Cooperation. The Middle East Institute, 2016, www.mei.edu/publications/climate-challenges-middle-east-rethinking-environmental-cooperation.
[18] Shafi, Neeshad. “Can Fighting Climate Change Bring the Arab World Closer Together?” World Economic Forum, 1 Apr. 2019, www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/04/to-fight-climate-change-the-arab-world-needs-to-come-together/.
[19] Stang, Gerald. Climate Challenges in the Middle East Rethinking Environmental Cooperation. The Middle East Institute, 2016, www.mei.edu/publications/climate-challenges-middle-east-rethinking-environmental-cooperation.
[20] El Hajj, Rana, et al. Enhancing Regional Cooperation in the Middle East and … Planetary Security Initiative, Apr. 2017, www.aub.edu.lb/ifi/Documents/PB_PSI_MENA_WG_3_0.pdf.pagespeed.ce.fZSIcoilR5.pdf.
[21] Stang, Gerald. Climate Challenges in the Middle East Rethinking Environmental Cooperation. The Middle East Institute, 2016, www.mei.edu/publications/climate-challenges-middle-east-rethinking-environmental-cooperation.
[22] Stang, Gerald. Climate Challenges in the Middle East Rethinking Environmental Cooperation. The Middle East Institute, 2016, www.mei.edu/publications/climate-challenges-middle-east-rethinking-environmental-cooperation.
