Climate Change: The Contributors vs The Affected
Why the countries suffering most from climate change are not the ones causing it.
Let’s start with this figure:
The Y-axis shows the long-run impact of climate change (specifically, global warming) on a country’s GDP. As seen above, all these values are negative, meaning that climate change is poised to make all economies worse-off. The extent of this reduction varies: the lower a country on the Y-axis, the more severe is the expected contraction in its GDP.
However, here is the interesting part:
Countries severely affected by climate change generally have smaller greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per-capita.
Countries on the left end of the X-axis (signifying lower per-capita GHG emission) are generally lower on the Y-axis (signifying greater long-run GDP reduction) than those on the right end. Superimposing this with per-capita GDP (represented by the size of bubbles) shows that countries which are worst affected are generally poorer (indicated by lower per-capita GDP, i.e., smaller bubble size) than those which are least affected. It is therefore clear:
Poorer nations contribute lesser to climate change but bear a larger share of its adverse impact.
Understanding the Unfair Distribution
One factor that may explain why the poor suffer more is the nature of economies of poorer nations: almost 75% of people living under poverty depend on agriculture and some form of natural resources for survival (Source: MercyCorps). These activities are extremely sensitive to changes in weather pattern, irregularity in seasons, erratic rainfall and other immediate outcomes of climate change, thus making poorer regions more vulnerable.
Exacerbating the situation is the already hotter climate in these higher vulnerability regions. Economic activities are most efficient in an ‘optimum temperature range’. Crop yields, labor supply and labor productivity, all drop off in extreme temperature zones (Source: Burke, Hsiang & Miguel). Most impoverished countries lie in the tropics, where the temperature is already above the optimum point. Hence, even modest warming can be particularly harmful to these economies.
The situation is aggravated by an increased threat of violence and conflict (Source: UN Chronicle). Poorer regions face food and water insecurity, and its population often lacks access to other basic amenities. By reducing economic output, climate change can intensify this existing scarcity, thus making poorer countries more prone to resource conflicts.
Poorer economies may also suffer due to higher health-risks. In many tropical areas, rising global temperature can lead to an increase in populations of mosquitoes and other insects. As a result, these regions may suffer more cases of malaria, dengue and other insect-borne diseases (Source: UN Chronicle). Prolonged and more severe heat waves can be detrimental to health, especially for the elderly and the sick. Given the lack of healthcare infrastructure in poor nations, the impact on public health, and the consequent economic losses, could be much greater than in richer countries.
And finally, richer nations might be better prepared to mitigate the worst impact of climate change. These countries can utilize technological advances and well-functioning public institutions to minimize adverse effects. Poorer nations usually lack these facilities, and their citizens don’t have any support system. Besides, a significant percentage of their population lives at subsistence levels. Hence, even a minor climate-induced change in income can push the population into starvation, further contracting economic output.
Data Sources
Impact on GDP: The Effects of Climate Change on GDP by Country and the Global Economic Gains From Complying With the Paris Climate Accord. Tom Kompas, Van Ha Pham and Tuong Nhu Che (link)
Per-capita GHG Emission: Our World in Data - Greenhouse gas emissions. Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (link)
Per-capita GDP: Maddison Project Database 2018. Bolt, Jutta, Robert Inklaar, Herman de Jong and Jan Luiten van Zanden (link)
