Climate Solutions from Ministry for the Future: The Military
Real-world ideas stitched into story
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Having covered The Ministry for the Future’s take on the role of public and private enterprises, we now turn to the military, where Robinson envisions a shift of power from nation states toward actors working on behalf of the planet. Below I outline specific ideas proposed within this theme and how they manifest both in the book and in the real world today.
Shifting Military Power
In The Ministry, the global balance of power is constantly shifting. While nation states still retain much of their power, it is no longer backed by strong militaries as other actors are enabled by a proliferation of new technologies and strategies. This enables the rise of a War for the Earth chipping away at the old world order.
Mutually Assured Destruction
What’s the idea? When multiple military forces have the power to annihilate each other, all are deterred from engaging. This is known as mutually assured destruction, and, in theory, it could rebalance power away from the strongest nation to a network of state and non-state actors, who become better able to negotiate in favor of the global collective on issues like climate change.
What’s The Ministry’s take? Mutually assured destruction lays the groundwork for the book’s military context, driven by the invention and proliferation of weapons called “pebble mobs” that target and disable other military technology:
“They were more powerful than the atomic bomb, in this very particular sense: you could use them. And they couldn’t be stopped…They were small, they launched from mobile launchers, they came from all directions in a coordinated attack in which they only congregated at their target in the last few seconds of their flights. They did not give off radioactive signals, and thus could be hidden until the moment of launch. And they were relatively cheap.”
The proliferation of pebble mobs leads to mutually assured destruction, not necessarily of large populations of people but of military technology. It spells the end of traditional war and gives increasing power to ecoterrorist groups. Ultimately, the US redeploys its navy away towards climate disaster relief.
In a recent interview, Robinson posed that greenhouse gas emissions also present a scenario of mutually assured destruction:
“There’s a strange sense in which the nation-states, especially the big petro states like Russia, Saudi Arabia, China, United States, Canada, Australia, Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, Iran, and Indonesia, are all like terrorists with an explosive vest around their waist. They’re all in the same room and they’ve all got buttons with which they can blow up the room and everybody else in it. Well, it’s kind of mutual assured destruction.”
What’s happening in the real world? Today, mutually assured destruction is discussed in reference to nuclear weapons, arising between the US and Russia during the Cold War. The landscape has since changed, with nuclear weapons spreading to more military powers, nuclear defense capabilities advancing, nuclear powers like Pakistan forced into desperate situations, and others like North Korea led by unpredictable leaders. In 2007, a group of Cold War policymakers who previously promoted the idea that nuclear weapons made the world safer reversed their position, supporting disarmament instead.
Ecoterrorism
What’s the idea? Targeted attacks against powerful climate-violating individuals, organizations, and infrastructure projects could halt their immediate goals, increase perceived risk of engaging in such activities over the long-term, and raise public awareness of climate issues.
What’s The Ministry’s take? Ecoterrorism advances the work of the ministry within the undercurrents of society. The Children of Kali form in the aftermath of the Indian heatwave, named for the Hindu destroyer of evil (and likely a book about a 19th-century Kali-worshipping criminal group). Their focus is killing powerful climate violators while avoiding collateral damage. The group initially uses suicide bombs and evolves towards targeted drone strikes. This culminates in a War for the Earth, with a demand to discontinue all fossil fuel transport and cow livestock. Drones attack jets, dismantling the fossil fuel airline industry, and shoot darts with mad cow disease at millions of cows, killing the market for beef and milk.
What’s happening in the real world? Ecoterrorism, while not officially part of government plans, has claimed major environmental successes. The Sea Shepherd Conservation Society (SSCS), founded in 1977, has damaged and sunk whaling vessels. In 1982, the International Whaling Commission banned commercial whaling, and SSCS continued to pursue perceived violators of the ban. Around the time of the SSCS’s founding, author Edward Abbey published The Monkey Wrench Gang, which popularized the idea of “monkeywrenching,” or sabotaging infrastructure like dams that damage ecosystems, and inspired the formation of the groups Earth First! and Earth Liberation Front (ELF). These groups use tactics like arson, bombing, and tree spiking to impede destructive projects.
Black Operations
What’s the idea? Black operations are actions by government agencies performed in secret and often funded by black budgets. Where agencies responsible for mitigating climate change cannot convince actors to take action via legal or transparent means, they may opt to engage in black ops.
What’s The Ministry’s take? When Mary realizes her legal mechanisms are failing and she might need a black ops wing, she learns that she already has one. The organization engages in agency-administered ecoterrorism, primarily in cybersecurity. Mary grapples with the ethical questions raised by what she calls “playing the god game” but ultimately concludes it is necessary.
“You grew up in Nepal, right? And I grew up in Ireland. In both places there was a lot of political violence. Which really means murder, right? Murder and all that follows murder…It’s not at all clear it has ever done any good in the world at all.”
What’s happening in the real world? Declassified CIA documents have revealed instances of black operations throughout history, including an assassination plot against Fidel Castro, promotion of regime change in Iran, and surveillance of reporters to identify their confidential sources. Documentation leaked by Wikileaks revealed that the US engaged in espionage and threats to garner support for the 2009 Copenhagen climate accord and details the extent of political negotiations in setting its terms.
Cyber-attacks
What’s the idea? Attacking technology systems can aid in obtaining classified information or bringing down targeted operations. Compared to physical attacks, cyber-attacks can minimize human harm and public visibility.
What’s The Ministry’s take? Cyber-attacks are the primary weapon of the ministry’s black ops wing. One target is coal plants, with the aim of increasing the perceived risk of funding additional plants.
“Possibly some coal plants have experienced problems. They’ve had to go offline, and the investment crowd has seen that and understood that they won’t ever be good investments again…New coal plant construction worldwide is down eighty percent since these things started happening.”
What’s happening in the real world? Cyber attacks against the energy sector are on the rise, primarily from nation states seeking to disrupt energy grids and cybercriminals using ransomware to extort profits. Notable cases include disabling an electrical grid in Ukraine in 2015 (possibly by Russia), damaging Iran’s nuclear centrifuges in 2010 (possibly by Israel and the US), and taking over oil plant controls in Saudi Arabia in 2017 (possibly by Russia). Instances of attacks by hacktivists are also on the rise, though these are mainly constrained to taking down or defacing companies’ websites and exposing private information of officials. In 2019, a well-known hacker launched a Hacktivist Bug Hunting Program to reward other hackers for leaking information from organizations furthering economic inequality.
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