How to Create 750,000 Climate Change Jobs: Decarbonize.
A new report by the University of California Berkeley Goldman School of Public Policy outlines a feasible plan for 90% decarbonization of the energy grid by 2035 in the US.
90% Decarbonization is not unrealistic
So, what this means is the entire bulk energy grid would derive from the following sources: renewable energy (primarily wind and solar using battery storage) at 70% and existing hydropower and nuclear energy plants at 20%.
Under this scenario all energy from coal would end by 2035, and no new fossil fuel plants would be added to the energy grid.
As Greentech Media’s The Energy Gang points out, this plan is “simple, but not easy.” It’s simple because it takes into account bulk energy transition predictions thanks to dramatic wind, solar and battery price drops in recent years. It would require an average addition of 70GW per year, or 1,100GW added in total. By 2035, the wholesale energy costs would drop by 10% compared to today.
However, it’s not easy because getting utilities on board to grant approvals and invest in the necessary grid technology transmission upgrades poses a challenge.
How would 90% decarbonization impact jobs?
Energy Innovation Policy and Technology LLC created a handy Data Explorer to analyze the changes in the number of jobs. The report predicts a total increase in total jobs by 750,000 in the year 2035, and a cumulative addition of 8.5 million additional job years across the 15-year span (job years mean units of one person working for one year) compared to today’s existing business as usual plan.
Personally, I don’t find the “job years” number that easy to wrap my mind around, though 8.5 million certainly sounds impressive. To keep things simple, I’ll compare the end results from the year 2035 for both outlined scenarios: 90% decarbonization versus no new policy. The data explorer’s analysis breaks the jobs into two main categories: operations and management (O&M) and construction.
Construction jobs soar, but others taper off
Looking ahead to the year 2035, you’ll find the following shifts with some fluctuation. A far greater number of construction and manufacturing jobs (1.53M) would be available thanks to the energy transition than without it (570K).
The construction sectors with the greatest gains under the 90% decarbonization scenario are onshore wind (670K), utility PV (300K) and battery storage (300K) compared to 260K, 150K and 40K with no new policy.
With 90% decarbonization, however, fewer O&M jobs would be available with 580K compared to 790K under the no new policy scenario.
The most dramatic job drops caused by the 90% clean energy vs no new policy cases would come from coal (23K vs 240K) and gas (84K vs 215K). Though O&M would face a net loss in jobs, strong gains in onshore wind (144K vs 47K) and utility PV (58K vs 33K) for O&M jobs would also take place.
Additional societal benefits
Obviously, cleaning up the energy grid addresses climate change. This 90% decarbonization plan would reduce U.S. carbon emissions by 88% through 2035.
But what would this mean for our health we make these changes? Compared with business as usual, health and environmental costs would drop by $1.2 trillion and avoid 85,000 premature deaths by 2050. These changes are a result of eliminating nitrogen oxide and sulphur emissions almost entirely (96% and 99% respectively).
We need policy to do this
Before we can fast-forward ahead to getting these benefits, we need elected officials with the political clout, savvy and determination to get it done. I can guarantee those qualities do not wear an orange toupee.
