Why the Next Climate Conference in Glasgow (COP-26) Won’t Make Any Difference
And why the previous 25 were just as pointless
IPCC
On the 6th of August of this year, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published their first part for the sixth assessment report. It summarizes the conclusions from physical science. It concludes that there is no doubt that global warming is happening and that humankind is the cause of it.
The 4000 pages long IPCC report is alarming in that the rate at which climate change is occurring, is a lot faster than scientists believed so far. If we prevent the earth from warming up more than 1.5 °C, the effects of climate change are still manageable. At this time we already are at 1.1 °C and the IPCC believes that with current policies, we end up well above 1.5 °C of global warming.
A significant action in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide and methane is needed. If not, a global rise in temperature between 3 and 5 °C by the end of this century is to be expected.
COP-26
The United Kingdom will host the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP-26) in Glasgow from October 31st until November 12th 2021. It is the first climate conference after the alarming news of the IPCC. So expectations are high.
But in the race towards the conference, the news is lacklustre. The climate action plans that are submitted so far are well below what is needed to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement (COP-21). The United States hasn’t submitted their climate action plan yet. China and Saudi Arabia refuse to make any commitments at all.
The Russian president Vladimir Putin won’t be attending, nor is there any indication that Russia is coming forward with an action plan. And Russia is a major contributor to climate change, mainly due to methane leakage.
Before COP-26 in Glasgow is started, it already has failed. Disinterest and inaction by political leaders won’t result in the climate action required to tackle climate change.
And that leaves one to wonder why 25.000 people are still going to Glasgow, contributing to a significant amount of carbon dioxide emissions.
Long term inaction
But the world’s inaction isn’t new. In the early 1960s, Charles Keeling made the world aware of the impact of fossil fuel burning on climate change. While Keeling wasn’t the first one — there are reports from as early as 1896 discussing the relationship between coal, carbon dioxide, and global warming, Keeling provided the scientific proof.
The First World Climate Conference took place in 1979. Political leaders were made aware of the climate crisis happening, caused by large amounts of greenhouse gas emissions.
In 1995 the first COP occurred, soon followed by COP-3 in Kyoto in 1997. COP-3 resulted in an agreement among 38 counties, setting an emission reduction target for 2020, known as the ‘Kyoto protocol’. The results of the agreement are mixed. Some countries did make their targets, although most likely out of sheer luck and changing economic conditions. Notable countries that didn’t meet the targets were the United States and Canada.
It took several conferences to follow up on the Kyoto protocol, but in December 2015, on the 21st COP, the Paris Agreement was signed by 196 countries.
But despite all conferences, agreements, targets, scientific evidence, and scientific warnings, carbon dioxide emissions are still on the rise. Measurements of the carbon dioxide concentration in the air at Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii, show a continuous increase.
In 1960, the carbon dioxide concentration in the air was 315 ppm (parts per million). As a teenager in the late 90s, I remember learning in geography values of 350 ppm. As of today, we are over 410 ppm.
COP-26 is just another climate conference in the history books, adding to a long list of conferences that have resulted in nothing but inaction. And that while climate change is here, and the outlook for this century is, mildly put, disconcerting.
