Mitigation of Climate Change
According to the latest assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it is extremely likely that the global climate change we are experiencing since the mid-20th century has resulted mainly from the increasing man-made emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane. Future climate change will continuously raise sea levels, flood coastal areas, and increase the occurrence of extreme weather phenomena such as heat waves and hurricanes. All these consequences will threaten our basic needs for food, water, health, and shelter, as well as natural ecosystems. So how can we mitigate future global climate change?
A simple and effective solution is to reduce our GHG emissions. Actually, countries worldwide have been negotiating emission reduction targets since 1992 under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). So far, the major achievement of UNFCCC is the Kyoto Protocol which commits its Parties by setting emission reduction targets by 2020. Under the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities”, the Kyoto Protocol only legally binds GHG emissions in developed countries in the pre-2020 period. However, the United States, the second largest emitter with a share of 14% in 2013, refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. In addition, something unexpected happened when the Protocol was entered into force in 2005, two developing countries — China and India experienced a soaring economic growth in the last decade, becoming the first and the third emitters, and taking up 28% and 7% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in 2013. However, China and India are not bounded by the Kyoto Protocol.
Scientists and politicians have given us a ceiling of temperature increase, which should be below 2 degrees relative to the pre-industrial level as suggested by IPCC. However, current emission trajectory is on track for a 3.2–5.4 degree increase. Looking further to 2020, according to a United Nations report in 2013, the gap between the pre-2020 pledges of emission cuts and the 2 degree limit will be 8–12 billion tones of CO2 per year, which is comparable to current Chinese emissions. Therefore, after more than twenty years of negotiation, we are still not out of the danger zone of climate change and increasingly difficult to stay on track to limiting temperature rise.
The good news is delegates from more than 190 countries will meet again in Lima in December 2014 to discuss emission reeducation beyond 2020. This time they aim at a new legal agreement covering all the countries, which will be signed in 2015 and take into force in 2020. Indeed we cannot tackle climate change without the three largest emitters in this climate game.
The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are the most desperate negotiation groups to see larger mitigation ambition. With the largest vulnerability to climate change and the least capacity to adaptation, these countries are facing more challenges to get out of poverty.
Considering the GHG emissions per person for China are still less than half of those for the US, an agreement including both developed and developing countries is not easy to reach. Large developing countries like China and India cannot achieve effective mitigation actions without the financial and technology support from developed countries.
However, hope and momentum are gathering again. As the writing of this blog, China and US made a joint announcement on climate change: China pledges to peak its CO2 emissions in 2030, and US will reach 27% below 2005 levels by 2025. Besides, growing bottom-up mitigation actions are blooming around the world. Indeed, climate change is a great opportunity for initiatives on renewable energy and sustainable development. So keep optimistic about where the negotiators will lead us to in Lima this December along this meandering road to a low-carbon society.
