Despite a strong start, Peacock is not viable long-term.

When Peacock, NBCUniversal’s streaming service, was launched nationwide back on July 15, it was easy to doubt its long-term viability immediately. With stiff competition from Netflix, Hulu, HBO Max and Disney+, along with the recent failure of new streaming platforms like Quibi, Peacock’s appeal as an NBC exclusive platform merited skepticism.

But Peacock has reportedly exceeded even its creators’ expectations, amassing over 15 million subscribers since its launch, per recent reports.

Still, even with its initial success, multiple factors explain its strong start but give pause to the idea that Peacock will have the staying power necessary to join the streaming superpowers.

Why Peacock has initially succeeded

Several factors have led to Peacock’s initial surge, but its three subscription models, including a free version, are chief among them.

With the free platform, subscribers get access to a host of NBC exclusive shows, like “The Office” and “Saturday Night Live” along with a catalogue of movies, all of which totals over 7,500 hours. However, the catch for the free model is there are numerous commercials and, obviously, you don’t get access to the full bank of content Peacock possesses.

Speaking of what else Peacock has to offer, and another big driving force behind its fast start is its appeal beyond just traditional shows and movies. Through Peacock Premium, the next level up from the free model, subscribers will get access to watch the English Premier League, which NBC has the exclusive rights to its ever-growing United States audience. Starting with its name, NBCUniversal has long tried to appeal to a more globally-minded audience within the US, as premium subscribers also get access to Telemundo and other Spanish programs, along with live access and clips from its news channels and programs.

Finally, there is Peacock’s Premium Plus model, which, as its name suggests, is very similar to Peacock Premium, but with Premium Plus, there are no commercials.

Along with its tiered-membership model, Peacock’s launch time also undoubtedly aided its success thus far. Though its national launch was in July, Peacock had debuted in select areas back in April, at which time it was no secret that streaming services had all experienced massively increased viewing figures due to much of the country, and the world, being stuck at home due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Still, while it’s easy to say Peacock got fortunate to ride the crest of the streaming wave, that unplanned benefit may have helped expose it to swaths of potential customers that otherwise may have been far too busy to notice yet another streaming service.

Why Peacock may still be doomed

But despite its undeniable positives, it still feels and seems like Peacock may not have the staying power to join the industry’s giants long-term.

Even Comcast, NBC’s parent company, had low expectations for the service. According to The Motley Fool, it is expected to have between 30 and 35 million viewers in the United States in four years, which would still put it well behind the likes of Netflix and Disney+. And even through advertising revenue, which you would think would be expected to be relatively high since two of its three models include ads, Comcast only expects half as much as Hulu gets per advertisement. This seems especially perplexing given NBC’s already established relationships with advertisers as one of the best-known broadcasting companies, while services like Netflix and Hulu never initially had those ties.

The question lingers about how many of Peacock’s 15 million subscribers are using the free version versus one of the premium plans. On top of that, will consumers who initially paid for one of the premium versions stick with it for more than a few months, or even weeks?

As previously mentioned, one of the biggest driving forces, especially for premium plans, stems from Peacock’s rights to sports programming, like the Premier League. But if you look at one of Peacock’s posts on social media, even this one on Instagram that is unrelated to its sports coverage is filled with frustrated fans trashing the service.

Their gripe is a reasonable one too, as although Peacock has constantly touted its rights to stream the soccer league, the games are split between Peacock and NBC Sports, which requires a separate cable subscription. One of the biggest appeals and driving forces behind the streaming revolution has been the trend away from cable, so to hamstring its consumers as this has understandably infuriated fans.

After NBC Sports Gold’s failure, which can be attributed to an even more nonsensical model along with a litany of technical issues, it is disappointing to see the same mistake essentially made again, damning Peacock’s long-term prospects.

But perhaps its own executives’ relatively low expectations for Peacock should’ve been telling. After all, an entirely NBC-exclusive streaming service always did seem overly ambitious, even with its strong sports coverage. NBC does not possess the cult following that propelled Disney, nor the variety and quality of Netflix and Hulu.

Ultimately, Peacock may have been better left as that bold idea you never quite get around to.

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