Election 2022 Preview Part I: Parity Visible on the Horizon
What to watch as we look to November, plus some exciting milestones straight ahead on the #PathtoParity.
NEW RECORDS AHEAD
Great news, California– in 2022, female candidates who share our values have run for State Legislature and advanced to November runoffs in record numbers, teeing up a transformation that will impact policy outcomes and reinforce California’s gold standard on reproductive freedom for decades to come.
“Our goal is nothing short of parity for women in the California Legislature, this decade. When I briefed political insiders on that audacious goal years ago, many of them gave me a virtual pat on the head and wished me luck. But in 2022, that audacious dream is starting to look a lot more real.”
— Executive Director Susannah Delano in CalMatters February, 2022
Opportunity NOW: The Motherlode
Since the 2013 launch of our campaign to close the gender gap in Sacramento, Close the Gap looked to 2022 as the moment things would get real.
For more on our Motherlode strategy, check out the series below:
→ Could we grow our capacity to target enough districts by 2022, identify and coach enough winning women to move the needle on representation as designed?
Although we don’t yet know exactly how many women will win in November, we are excited to share our confidence that the volume and the caliber of candidates in 2022 is exactly where it needs to be, in order for women to reach parity by 2028.
The women of 2022: a candidate field of dreams!
- More women ran for Legislature than ever before in 2022, and for the first time, a majority were women of color. The number of women of color running and advancing to runoffs leapt forward dramatically, particularly among women who identify as AAPI and MENA (400%+ increase). A core element of Close the Gap’s 2022–2024 recruiting strategy has been to address the disparity in representation of progressive AAPI, MENA and Black women. Tapping into our statewide networks paid off — half of the 43 prospective candidates who attended our Sacramento Symposium in 2021 identified with one of these communities, and we see their impact in the candidate field this year. Close the Gap’s Class of 2022 was our largest ever at 20 women strong, and we guided an additional 10 who ran through expedited explorations.
- An all-time high number of women (56) picked their fights wisely as our strategy has called for, by running for open seats. This is a 43.5% increase over 2020. A wave of surprise resignations and retirements announced September 2021-February 2022 added 30 additional, unexpected open seat opportunities to the 8 anticipated this year due to term limits. Thirty percent turnover in the Legislature in 2022 frontloaded the Motherlode’s once-in-a-generation opportunity, and women were ready. Close the Gap guided 9 of our top 2024 prospects to join our Class of 2022, including now-Assemblymembers Lori Wilson and Tina McKinnor.
- In the primary, women were credible competitors and outperformed men. Not only did a majority of women running for open seats advance to the runoff for the first time in our tracking (61%), but they did so at a rate 85% higher than in 2020, when only one-third advanced. Driving the surge was Close the Gap’s Class of 2022, who won runoff spots at an impressive rate of 80%. Male candidates advanced at a rate of 51% this year.
We are confident that Close the Gap’s program to recruit, encourage and prepare talented women delivers what we need to reach parity. We are committed to keep guiding accomplished women towards their best opportunities, and we can do so in every winnable district with your continued support and investment.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR IN NOVEMBER
Far from the “warm-up” cycle many expected, 2022 is ripe for new women to transform the Legislature dramatically. Add in these emerging dynamics that could supercharge progressive women's strong performances:
Abortion on the ballot
California is the nation’s standard-bearer and safety net for abortion rights. It is critical that we ensure a wave of committed reinforcements as the champions of the last decade term out, both to safeguard California’s leadership role, as well as to continue addressing gaps in access that persist even in our home state.
Thankfully, champion-caliber, female reproductive health candidates are on the 2022 ballot in droves– the female candidate field skews heavily pro-choice overall. In every Close the Gap target district, one of our Recruits has earned a 100% pro-choice rating or sole endorsement from NARAL, Planned Parenthood, and/or Black Women for Wellness Action Project.
With the fall of Roe v Wade, reproductive health is top of mind for voters and candidates. An August Berkeley IGS poll found that abortion will be an important factor to 81% of Californians when they vote in November. Proposition 1, to codify abortion and contraception protections, will only elevate it more, and female candidates could benefit.
There is evidence that voters, and particularly young and female voters, mobilize in the face of a threat to reproductive rights, and that women are seen as more compelling and credible leaders on this issue. Kelly Dittmar of the Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP) has suggested that observers watch for the way female candidates innovate around standard campaign messaging and platform development in this area based on their own experience and perspectives in 2022, much as they did with #MeToo in 2018. Where candidates and independent spenders dedicate resources to campaign on a choice message, races could be impacted enough to boost turnout and alter outcomes.
In purple seats, traction around reproductive health could expose extreme positions by GOP or moderate Democratic candidates. This factor could level the playing field for female candidates where Democrats have a slight registration advantage, and where the GOP has the advantage. As of August, the DCCC was already spending 7 digits in Orange County, famously home to pro-choice GOP women, to target AAPI voters with a reproductive health message. Even in safe Democratic districts, reproductive health can draw a contrast that benefits progressive female candidates.
Nested seats could add up to more women
In 2018, investment in swing congressional districts benefited five Democratic women downballot, who flipped nested legislative districts (Melissa Hurtado in SD 14, Rebecca Bauer-Kahan in AD 16, Christy Smith in AD 38, Cottie Petrie-Norris in AD 74, and Tasha Boerner-Horvath in AD 76).
In 2022, Democratic women (five of them CTG Recruits) are running to flip State Assembly and Senate districts nested in all seven DCCC congressional targets. The downballot impact of dollars flowing to priority congressional races in 2018 helped add more new women to the Legislature than ever before in history. If we see a similar effect in 2022, our robust pipeline of women will benefit.
Geographical logjams finally break
For over a decade, exactly zero women have represented the vast swath of California’s coast north of Santa Barbara.
→ The all-male logjam looks ready to break with multiple CTG women poised to cruise to coastal victories in 2022. We no longer see a single geographical region in California without robust numbers of female legislative candidates.
→ Pre-November, only 6 of the Bay Area’s 25 members are women– the Bay’s female contingent could double in a single cycle with 6 new progressive women in contention to succeed a male predecessor.
Return to in person campaigns could boost results
2020 saw a surge in anti-choice Republican women winners, and far fewer GOP-held districts flipped blue than in 2018. While Republican candidates campaigned in person in 2020, that was not possible for public health-minded Democrats, and it hurt them at the polls. As the COVID-19 pandemic becomes more manageable in 2022, a full return to in-person campaigning by all parties could spur progressive women.
JUST THE BEGINNING
2022 is only the opening round of the Motherlode. If the ecosystem of early support and guidance for women can keep driving up the volume and the caliber of candidates, 2024–2028 will provide the open seats women will need to close the gap between 33% representation and full parity at 50%.
What do we need going forward to keep charting the #PathtoParity? Read Part II below!
Close the Gap California is committed to building on progressive women’s historic momentum by recruiting them statewide and achieving equality in California by 2028. Join us!
About Close the Gap California
Close the Gap California (CTGCA) is a statewide campaign launched in 2013 to close the gender gap in the California Legislature by 2028. By recruiting accomplished, progressive women in targeted districts and preparing them to launch competitive campaigns, CTGCA is changing the face of the Legislature one cycle at a time.
Nearly one in every three women in the Legislature is a CTGCA Recruit. Our Recruits are committed to reproductive justice, quality public education, and combatting poverty, and 11 of 12 serving today are women of color.
