The Risk of an Electric Power Grid Collapse
The Risks, Consequences, and Mitigation Strategies
The risks to the power grid, mitigating and total collapse, survival during a total collapse, and the process of restarting the grid.
Sources
An assessment of threats to the American power grid
How Would a Nuclear EMP Affect the Power Grid?
How secure is America’s electric grid?
7 Ways the Power Grid Could Collapse
How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse?
Risks to the Power Grid
A total grid collapse refers to a catastrophic failure of the electrical power grid, resulting in a prolonged and widespread loss of electricity. The power grid is susceptible to various threats, including cyber attacks and physical attacks on infrastructure. These types of attacks can compromise the grid’s ability to function properly, leading to power outages and potentially even a grid collapse. In addition to intentional attacks, the grid is also vulnerable to natural disasters like hurricanes, wildfires, and earthquakes. The grid is also at risk due to systemic failures caused by aging or inadequate infrastructure. Finally, pandemics can also pose a threat to the grid, as a shortage of trained personnel can make it difficult to maintain and repair infrastructure.
Cases of Grid Collapse
A 1989 geomagnetic storm caused a 9-hour power outage in Quebec, affecting 6 million people. The storm also damaged a transformer in New Jersey. A report suggests that a more intense storm, could occur in the future, potentially affecting 20–40 million people in the US and causing outages lasting up to 2 years. The risk of transformer damage varies by region, with areas like the Washington D.C. to New York corridor facing the highest risk.
A 7-kiloton nuclear warhead, codenamed Yucca, was part of Operation Hardtack, a series of nuclear tests conducted by the United States in 1958. Yucca was the first test of a nuclear blast in the upper limits of Earth’s atmosphere. It was found that a weapon at 200 kilometers in altitude could impact a significant fraction of North America. In general, the further from the blast you are, the lower the amplitude of the EMP. But because of Earth’s magnetic field, the maximum amplitude occurs a little bit south of ground zero in the northern hemisphere, creating this pattern called a “smile diagram.” A high-altitude nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP) could have devastating effects on the power grid in America. The EMP’s E1 pulse, which is the most intense and immediate component, could impact a large area, potentially affecting digital devices and the power grid.
In the past decade, there have been over 700 physical attacks against the U.S. electric grid. The Metcalf Power Substation in California, outside of San Jose, on April 16, 2013, a HV Transformer owned by PG&E sustained gunfire for 20 minutes. Footprints suggested as many as 6 men executed the attack. They left no fingerprints, not even on the expended shell casings which could suggest that the attack was a dry run for future operations. These attacks the vulnerability of the power grid to physical attacks.
On March 15, 2018, the Department of Homeland Security issued an alert that the Russian government had engineered a series of cyberattacks targeting American and European nuclear power plants and water and electric systems. It is reported these attacks could allow Russia to sabotage or shut down power plants at will. In December 2015, a cyberattack was directed against the Ukrainian power grid. It caused little damage as the grid was not fully automated.
In February 2021, a winter storm in Texas caused a severe power crisis, with high electricity demand and power plant failures leading to widespread outages. The grid frequency dropped below a critical threshold, putting the entire grid at risk of collapse. Although operators prevented a total collapse, the crisis was one of the most expensive and deadly in Texas history.
Mitigating a Total Collapse
The consequences of a total grid collapse can be severe and far-reaching, including disruption of essential services, food and water shortages, loss of medical care and emergency services, economic collapse, social unrest, and potential civil disturbances. The risks and vulnerabilities associated with a total grid collapse include damage to critical infrastructure, disruption of supply chains and logistics, failure of backup power systems, and loss of access to basic necessities.
To prepare for and mitigate the effects of a total grid collapse, it is essential to invest in grid resilience and security measures, develop backup power systems and emergency preparedness plans, implement cybersecurity measures, conduct regular maintenance and upgrades to infrastructure, and educate the public on the risks and consequences of a total grid collapse.
Hardening the grid through measures like surge arrestors can help protect against disruptions, and having a plan in place can minimize recovery times. The estimated cost to harden the grid is $3.8 billion, according to the 2008 EMP Commission report.
Without Power
A cessation of electricity and fuel would halt food production, and people could live for 1–2 months without food. After 5 days without food, people start having difficulties thinking, and they become incapacitated after 2 weeks. Regional food warehouses typically have a 30-day food supply, but most would be destroyed without refrigeration. The collapse of the electric power grid would also result in collapses in water infrastructure, leading to outbreaks such as cholera. Without water, people can survive for only 3 to 4 days. The ability of people to survive without power and electricity would ultimately depend on a variety of factors, such as the availability and rationing of resources.
To prepare for a grid collapse, consider having primitive lighting methods like oil lamps, and own means to purify water without electricity, such as gravity filters. Stockpiling food is also crucial. Additionally, have off-grid cooking methods like propane stoves, and consider alternative biomass stoves for long-term use. Using solar generators, power stations, and solar panels with rechargeable batteries can keep small electronics running.
Overall preparedness, both personal and institutional, is essential. For recommended essential supplies, visit FEMA’s website. Fostering social cohesion and community assistance can also be incredibly helpful during these times.
Restoring Power
Restoring service to a collapsed power grid is a complex and meticulous process known as a “black start.” It involves manual synchronization of generators, prioritization of essential loads, and progressive connection of customers to balance generation capacity with demand. However, the grid is vulnerable during this process, and errors can trip breakers and restart the process. Strict security measures are enforced to prevent intentional disruptions, and quick power restoration is crucial for health and safety.
If there is permanent damage to large transformers, it could take years to replace due to international lead times. Restoration, of the grid, is further complicated by challenges like limited fuel, scarce water resources, and interdependent infrastructure systems. Alternative power sources like solar and wind are rare backups, and manual intervention is hindered by a lack of knowledge of these energy sources. Extended power outages have far-reaching consequences, affecting all aspects of modern life, making preparedness essential for both citizens and institutions.
