Technology Forecasting

“Technological Forecasting (TF) is concerned with the investigation of new trends, radically new technologies, and new forces which could arise from the interplay of factors such as new public concerns, national policies and scientific discoveries.”

If hitting a target is hard then hitting a moving target is even harder. It’s no secret that technology trends move fast — and the tools and means for building those technologies constantly evolve. If you don’t lift your head up every once in a while to investigate new trends, you could end up in inescapable rabbit hole.

Ironically, one of the most insidious dangers facing an organisation is long-term success, for success breeds complacency. While routinely cranking out products and congratulating itself on its stellar productivity figures, an organisation is vulnerable to being blindsided by a competitor who is sporting new features, new ideas, and new technologies. To head off such calamities, an organisation must institutionalize vigilance, and one way to do that is by practicing technology forecasting. Technology forecasting helps provide strategic market planning i.e. identifying trends and predicting what the relevant markets will bear. If a decision maker has several alternatives open to him or her, s/he will choose among them on the basis of which provides him/her with the most desirable outcome. Thus his/her decision is inevitably based on a forecast. His/her only choice is whether the forecast is obtained by rational and explicit methods, or by intuitive means.

Latest Trends

• AI (Artificial Intelligence)-The biggest business platforms like google , facebook are working on ‘Artificial Intelligence (AI)’.Google is already venturing down this path with what it calls AutoML. ML means machine learning, so as you can guess, the system all about artificial intelligence doing machine learning tasks automatically.AI is providing boost — up strategies in the mobile development fields.. So AI is the most significant trend in current mobile technology.

• Aggregator Apps -Aggregators are meant for those who don’t have the time or desire to visit numerous websites or install numerous apps. Some popular aggregator apps are Flipboard, News360, Feedly and IFTTT.Aggregator apps tend to become user favorites when they are convenient or enhance the shopping experience. For instance, Facebook has done this with its Messenger app, which lets users read their feeds and order Uber rides.

• Hybrid monetization models -such as in-app ads and in-app purchases, are quickly gaining popularity in the business world. Most studies show that in-app advertising is set to be a key driver of mobile growth over the coming years (see Statista’s, IHS Markit’s and Forbes’s reports).

• loT (Internet of Things) -The IoT will help us control things around us via applications. Google Glass, Apple Watches, and others are just the beginning. iT is the versatile trend with more efficient interfaces.It helps user to cope up with their smartphones. Mobile applications need to manage communication with more interfaces.In time, we will see more of these being used in our daily lives.

• Cloud technology -Today, everyone is known for cloud technology. In recent time, it has become fast, cheap and easy to utilize for every developer and user. As the examples, we can take in mind the very popular applications Dropbox, Google Drive, LinkedIn etc. You can optimize the power of these cloud-based mobile apps, after all that the developers are still on effort to make cloud apps more powerful that consume minimum space in mobile storage.

• VR and AR apps development-VR (Virtual Reality) devices have achieved too much prosperity in this year. For e.g. Samsung Gear, Oculus Rift, and Google Cardboard are the VR appliance that made a revolutionary trend in Android app development.

AR (Augmented Reality) is the addition of digital information that is used in animation vision. Popular games Pokémon Go, Sky Siege etc are the great creation of AR technology. AR apps are developed in 3D programming languages. Consequently, in the technical world AR is sophisticated and machine vision thing for Smartphone applications.

How to practice this?

• Define an IT strategy –An IT strategy should be developed based on a company’s goals and vision, an analysis of the current customer base, and with a thorough understanding of the type of customers they want to attract and obtain in the future. Defining the IT strategy helps narrow down which technology trends to pursue.

• Technical steering group: A technical steering group is a proven mechanism for keeping current with technology trends. This type of group comprises senior technical managers who analyse new trends, customer needs, and technologies. Appoint a group of senior engineers and task them with accumulating and maintaining sufficient expertise in various technical areas so that they could become reliable forecasters.

• Provide proof of concept — Before making significant changes across the organisation, implement small changes a little at a time. Measure, in real time, the trials with one team on a specific project or on a particular module before it’s rolled out to the entire organisation. Proof of concept provides the needed confidence about impending changes to all stakeholders involved. This will identify any challenges that need to be addressed before a full rollout.

• Hire new talent — Employing individuals from outside organisations can provide insight and fresh perspective on emerging technologies. This helps increase the scope of technologies the company can gain exposure to.

Conclusion

“Technology Forecasting” will never be able to predict when, where ,how or why some completely new technology will develop. But the survival, growth and profitability of firms need to predict future technological changes in order to create a solid and sustainable technological base that can withstand or adapt to rapidly changing market requirements.