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Vision Pro success is inconceivable!?
Beware the classic blunders of punditry…
One of my best friends has a simple way of determining if a newly announced technology is going to be successful.
He asks his friend Dan.
If Dan says it’s going to flop my friend knows it’s very likely to succeed.
Dan is what I think of as a “classically trained business manager”, someone who excels at Excel, someone good at managing the margins.
Don’t get me wrong. Dan is good at what he does. He’s profitable.
It’s simply that Dan often exemplifies the kind of thinking that leads people to miss when predicting which new technologies are worth betting on.
Dan consistently falls victim to the classic blunders of tech punditry. As a result his predictions are often 180 degrees off of reality.
He’s in good company though.
It’s amazing how often people who are literally paid to make sense of new products make the same mistakes.
None of us are immune.
The Three Classic Blunders
In my time in the IT industry I’ve witnessed, and fallen victim to, three classic blunders when it comes to analyzing new technologies:
